Gators Pregame: Western Kentucky

For each game this year, I am going to do my pre-game previews by running down the songs that make up the Gator band’s pre-game show.

Pregame Jaws

Florida has not lost the first game of the season since 1989, when the Gators, who would finish 7-5, lost to Ole Miss, who would finish 8-4, by a score of 24-19.

Urban Meyer Fanfare

Urban Meyer has never lost the first game of the year as a head coach. At Bowling Green, he beat Missouri 20-13 in 2001 and Tennessee Tech 41-7 in 2002. At Utah, he defeated Utah State 40-20 in 2003 and Texas A&M 41-21 in 2004. At Florida, he defeated Wyoming 32-14 in 2005 and Southern Miss 34-7 in 2006.

Orange and Blue

You’ll be hearing this song a lot on Saturday. If Florida doesn’t score on a drive for any other reason than a quarterback missing open receivers, it will be a huge upset.

Men of Florida

In this game, it’s actually not going to be a feature of the Men of Florida, but the boys. Most of the veterans should be out by various times in the second half, so all of the young players will see playing time. This game will go very similarly to the UCF and Western Carolina games of last year.

Chimes/Alma Mater

Get ready for another year of the UF marketing droids playing up The Gator Nation to try to drum up interest and donations for the ol’ Alma Mater. I hate that phrase, The _____ Nation. Don’t ask we why, I just don’t like it.

We are the Boys March

Florida’s offense should have no problems marching up and down the field. Florida’s players are better athletes than most I-A teams, so the difference between Florida and Western Kentucky, which is technically in its first I-A year in 2007, is huge. If you saw the Murray State – Louisville game last night, the Cardinals players looked like giants next to the Racers players. That’s what it’ll look like in the Swamp tomorrow.

Gators Spell Out

G: Ginormous

I hate this fake word, but it’s about the only one that can accurately describe the level of the beat down that’s coming tomorrow.

A: Auditions

A lot of young players are going to be getting plenty of audition time Saturday one the starters are done with the half or so that they’ll play.

T: Tim Tebow

Yes, national media, Tim Tebow can throw, and we’ll see him do some of that today. It won’t prove much, but it should be enough to shut a few people up.

O: One Team

There are almost no Zook players left, and those that are left, like Andre Caldwell, have fully bought into the Urban Meyer system of both on and off the field life. In Meyer’s first year, he had a lot of issues with people resisting his methods, and some of that even carried over to the beginning of 2006. No more. They’re all his team now.

R: Receivers

Florida has a ton of them, and they’re all good. It starts with Percy Harvin, but even the 7^th best player in the stable could start on most teams in the country. These guys will lead the offense and put up some huge numbers this year.

S: Schedule

Florida’s schedule is nowhere near as tough as it was last year. There’s another tough stretch in the middle with Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina all in a row, but Tennessee, Auburn, Vandy, and FSU are all home games this year and Alabama rotates off the schedule for Coach O and the Ole Miss Rebels.

Suwannee

The points will be flowing for the Gators like the brackish water of the river that lends its name to the final song in the preseason sequence. Enjoy it Florida fans, but for all practical purposes, Florida will still be 0-0 after this weekend since WKU is basically a I-AA team and the stats for this game should be thrown out when considering this season.

Gator football has returned. Go Gators!

Some Predictions

Here’s some off-the-cuff predictions for the season while we’re all waiting for LSU to thump Mississippi State to kick off the season…

ACC Atlantic: Boston College

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech

ACC Champ: VT

Big 12 North: Nebraska

Big 12 South: Oklahoma

Big 12 Champ: Oklahoma

Big East Champ: West Virginia

Big Ten Champ: Michigan

Pac 10 Champ: USC

SEC East: Florida

SEC West: LSU

SEC Champ: Florida

BCS At-Larges: LSU, Wisconsin, Louisville, Hawai’i

Heisman Winner: John David Booty

Should be the Heisman Winner: Darren McFadden

Overrated: Texas

Underrated: Oklahoma State

BCS Title Game: USC and Oklahoma

National Champion: Oklahoma

Two days to go ’til Florida football. Go Gators!

Managing Expectations

Something I tried to do all of last year was manage expectations. The goal I set for the Gators last year was to win the SEC East, and that’s what I kept up with for the whole season. Towards the end, I did get caught up in a lot of the national title hopes, but I still stand by that goal based on what I saw at the beginning of last year.

The most realistic expectation for this year is, incidentally, the same - win the SEC East. Don’t get me wrong, my hopes for the year go as high as they can go. I cannot wait to see the offense play this year because it will be something to behold. Still, as much as I trust the Gators’ defensive coaches, I can’t help but be concerned about all of the inexperience on defense. It’s an unknown, and it’s natural to be concerned about uncertainty. I know there will probably be a game or two this year when the offense is not clicking on all cylinders, and the defense will need to carry the team. That’s a legitimate issue. If Percy Harvin misses significant time again, it will be exacerbated.

Now, I think that Urban Meyer has established an all-star coaching staff and together they can certainly lead the Gators to a repeat. A repeat, that is, of the conference title. It’s almost completely unreasonable to expect a repeat of a national title because of how rarely it happens. It’s only happened 4 times since 1960, and that includes USC’s AP title/consensus title this decade that some people still refuse to recognize as a true repeat. And anyway, this year is a transition year between the mostly Zook-recruited teams to a fully Urban Meyer-built program.

Indeed, 2008 is the next best shot for Florida to win the national title. That team will be absolutely loaded and winning the national championship will be a realistic expectation. However, this year it is not.

Now, I haven’t even mentioned Tim Tebow yet. I have purposefully tried to keep my discussion of him to a minimum because I’m attempting to avoid getting swept up in Tebow Mania like most of the rest of Gator fans. I don’t have a problem with that, and to be honest when I think about this year I do get excited at the prospect of Tebow running the offense this year. For the purposes of this site though, I am trying to keep it as even-keel as possible. If he performs like a star once things get going, I will let the irrational exuberance flow, but not yet here in the preseason.

So, let’s go out there and win the division and play for the SEC title. If we can do that it will be a good year, setting up for a monstrous 2008.

LaMarcus Coker Reinstated

And just like that, LaMarcus Coker has been reinstated by Tennessee. I remarked that the phrasing left room open for him to return to the team quickly, and though he will miss the Cal game he will be back for all games after that. It shows that Phil Fulmer was serious about the issue that got Coker suspended since Coker won’t be traveling to Berkeley, but hopefully this is a sign that the guy is getting his life back on track.

Incidentally, I still think Tennessee wins at Cal.

Preseason Top 25

Well, the Blogpoll is officially out now, and though I am not a voter in it, there’s no reason I can’t put out my own top 25. Just like any other preseason poll, mine is largely based on impressions of the previous year, analysis of current rosters, and guessing. It is fraught with bias, and shows little insight that you can’t find elsewhere. Everyone’s in the same boat on this.

Now, if you remember my ratings machine, I did my own run of it and by chance had 7 teams rated as “Excellent” and 18 teams rated as “Very Good.” If you put on your first grade math hat, that comes out to 25 teams. Therefore, the top 7 teams of my poll make up the excellent category, and the rest are in the very good category. Here goes nothing… 

1. USC
2. Michigan
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. West Virginia
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Virginia Tech
9. Louisville
10. Wisconsin
11. Tennessee
12. Ohio State
13. Auburn
14. Penn State
15. Boston College
16. Georgia
17. California
18. Nebraska
19. Hawaii
20. Rutgers
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Oregon State
24. South Florida
25. Boise State

USC is number 1, but not because I think they’re invincible. Rather, it’s a safe pick, and moreover the Trojans have a talent factory and the most proven track record since 2002. Michigan comes in second because at the end of last year I thought that the winner of the Rose Bowl would be #1 and the loser #2. Without much more to go on, I just went with that. As long as Michigan rides Mike Hart as far as he’ll take them, the Wolverines could earn this spot.

LSU has just as much talent to make a case for #1 as USC does, but I don’t trust Les Miles. That’s all. Oklahoma may seem a surprise at 4, but the Sooners return most of their team from last year, and everyone seems to forget that Bob Stoops is still a very good coach. West Virginia comes in a 5 for its impressive arsenal of running weapons. If the Mountaineers throw more than 15 times a game, this year’s team will be a waste.

Florida clocks in at 6. The Gators are that high because of their offense, but not higher because of their defense’s inexperience. The chance for greatness is still there thanks to the strength of the defensive coaches led by Charlie Strong and Greg Mattison. I trust Chuck Heater, I trust Chuck Heater, I trust Chuck Heater…

Texas is 7, but mainly because the I see the Big 12 as weaker this year and the ‘Horns will probably run the table except for Oklahoma. Don’t forget, Mack Brown has been disappointing when his quarterback is not named Vince. Virginia Tech comes in at 8 because of its defensive strength. Plus, generally every conference champion finishes in the top 10 and I see VT winning the ACC. Louisville is 9 because of all the people it has coming back. I don’t know much about Steve Kragthorpe, but apparently he runs an offense similar to Bobby Petrino’s, so some consistency should be enough to keep the Cardinals near the top of the polls again.

From here on out, the guessing takes an ever increasing role as we head down the poll. I have Wisconsin next, but only because it’s still mostly Barry Alvarez’s team. Bret Bielema did a great job last year, but since he has no other track record the Badgers are not any higher. Tennessee is probably a little high at 11, but it’s Erik Ainge’s second year under David Cutcliffe and Phil Fulmer needs to win big to keep off of the hit seat. Ohio State is 12 because the Buckeyes will have to play like the 2002 Luckeyes to win, and this is not as talented of a team.

Auburn comes in at 13, a bit higher than some other folks, but Tommy Tuberville seems to do his best when the expectations are off. Penn State is at 14, but honestly I don’t know if this is too high or too low. Boston College is definitely a surprise at 15, but new head coach Jeff Jagodzinski is a good offensive coach, he knows the zone blocking scheme the Denver Broncos use, and the ACC is pathetic enough that a team like BC could end up with a really nice record. Georgia comes in at 16 because of Matt Stafford, Mark Richt, and a depleted offensive line. I’ll let you determine which two are the liabilities.

Cal is at 17 because the second-best Pac-10 team has to show up somewhere above 20, right? Nebraska’s at 18 thanks to Bill Callahan finally having a good quarterback in Sam Keller. Hawaii is at 19, and you can read about it in J.K. Rowling’s new book Colt Brennan and the PlayStation Offense. Rutgers comes in at 20 since Ray Rice is still around, but it is not higher because like Wisconsin’s Bielema, Greg Schiano has only one really good season to his name. Arkansas is 21 because when all else fails, the Pigs still have Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. If Houston Nutt just does what he did last year with the team, only this time keeping Casey Dick as the starter the whole year, then Arkansas won’t fall off too much.

The perennial most underrated team, TCU, comes in at 22. Every year people talk at length about how no one talks about Gary Patterson and the job he does there. Well, here’s to you, Gary. Oregon State comes in at 23 for two reasons: I like Mike Riley as a college coach, and I still have fond memories of the Beavers destroying Notre Dame in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl. The trendy team South Florida is at 24, but only because I decided last January to put them in my preseason poll and I stuck with it. Boise State rounds out the top 25 since the Broncos lost a lot from last year’s team. Still, with Chris Petersen and Ian Johnson still there, anything can happen.

Now, for some of the notable absences, and by that I refer to teams in the other polls that do not appear in mine. FSU is not there because while the coaches are almost all new, it’s still the same old players. I don’t have Texas A&M because I don’t trust Dennis Franchione. I don’t have South Carolina because while the Gamecocks will be dangerous, Blake Mitchell is showing us once again why he can’t be trusted.

Remember, it’s the preseason. None of this has to make sense yet. Have a  good weekend,  y’all.

Schedule Analysis Part 6

Don’t forget to check out Part 1, Part 2, Part 3,  Part 4, and Part 5.

November 24: FSU

I’ve already written over 3900 words in the rest of my schedule analysis, and I could probably write 3900 more about FSU alone. For Gator of my father’s generation, Georgia is Florida’s biggest rival. For fans who grew up in the ‘90s like me, FSU is the main rival and it’s not even close. You’ll run into some people (like Orson) who hate Tennessee the most, and that’s perfectly understandable since UT’s a conference rival, but for most, FSU is the big one every year.

This fact probably stems from the fact that Florida-FSU has been a real rivalry since 1990. You had two charismatic head coaches in Bowden and Spurrier, each the polar opposite of the other. Now you have the new school-old school dynamic with Urban Meyer and Bowden. Both teams have nationally significant, aside from the Ron Zook and Jeff Bowden years. Also, with the exception of 2001, you knew that either team had a chance at winning the game. The series spawned many game with names, like the Choke at Doak, 52-20, the Greatest Game Ever Played in the Swamp, and the Ron Zook Field game.

Now, I was going to fill the rest of this with heckling, half truths, and untruths in a general attempt to besmirch the FSU football program, but since Mickey Andrews’ son unfortunately passed away earlier this month I’ll lay off. Don’t worry, it’ll return later this year. In the meantime, I think I’m almost set here in my new apartment and with my new classes, so that’s good. There’s nothing quite like a new set of circumstances to make you run around everywhere doing errands and meeting people and oh yeah, making sure I’m all set to graduate. That was important.

Update: I’m Still Alive

Thanks to all for continuing to visit. I’ve been out of town all weekend with little Internet access, and this week I am going to be at Disney today and then in Savannah, GA ’til Friday. I will try to get my FSU analysis up as soon as I can, but it is lengthy as FSU is Florida’s biggest rival in my eyes. Next week, when classes start, I’ll be back to posting more regularly.

In unrelated news, the first game against Western Kentucky has been moved to 12:30 to accommodate Lincoln Financial Sports (the former Jefferson Pilot), which means Western Kentucky is the lead LF Sports game two years in a row (lst year, the Hilltoppers played Georgia). Prepare to sweat a gallon or two, those of you attending the game.

Schedule Analysis: Part 5

Don’t forget to check out Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4.

November 10: at South Carolina

This game scares me more than any other on the schedule. Even more than the road game at LSU. South Carolina has a senior quarterback, a senior and two juniors at running back, and the best kicker in the conference. More importantly, South Carolina has Steve Spurrier.

Let’s face it: so far Steve has owned Urban Meyer. He won their first game together in 2005, and would have won last year if not for Florida blocking an astounding three kicks in that game. When Steve decides he wants to beat a team year in and year out, he gets it done. Just look at his 11-1 mark against Georgia. Despite his remarks in the offseason about still being a Gator when talking about UF defeating Ohio State in both national title games, he wants to beat Florida every time he has the chance. It’s in his nature.

He’s not doing it because he’s upset that he didn’t get a call after Ron Zook was fired. He said when he left Florida for the NFL that 12 years was plenty and that he didn’t want to become for Florida what Bear Bryant is for Alabama. He’s also said that he wants the challenge of doing something that’s never been done before. Winning the SEC at South Carolina certainly would fit that bill.

Now, not everything is guaranteeing that South Carolina will have a great year and be ready for Florida come November. First, the Gamecocks have a tough schedule: it has to play UGA, LSU, UT, and Arkansas on the road, and still has Clemson on the non-conference schedule. Second, Blake Mitchell, the senior quarterback mentioned above, has never really put a full year together between his ears, much less between the goalposts. Plus, with Spurrier’s bold declaration that South Carolina plans to compete for the conference title this year, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone.

Now don’t get me wrong – I have full faith in Urban Meyer and his coaching staff to figure out a way to win this game. However, I also have full faith in Spurrier to come up with a way to stay in the game long enough to have a chance to win at the end. With as much talent as the Gators have, Florida should win this game. Florida should have won in 2005 and won more convincingly in 2006.

I want to say that Florida will win this game, but there are absolutely no guarantees when Steve Spurrier is coaching in a game he really, really wants to win. Just ask Georgia.

November 17: FAU

You know what FAU stands for? Find Another University! Ha, ha!

But seriously, I heard that Howard Schnellenberger has got some talent down there, and he’s ready to get the Owls in contention for the Sun Belt Championship and possibly the program’s first bowl game. It’s a real study in contrasts when you compare FAU to its fellow new Div. I-A school buddy, FIU, because when you look at how they are…

You know what? None of this matters. FAU is getting an unholy beatdown. The end.

Schedule Analysis: Part 4

Don’t forget to check out Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

October 27: Georgia (in Jacksonville)

Death, taxes, and Florida over Georgia, right? Well, it’s not that simple, but is has seemed that way since 1990. It took Ron Zook being fired earlier in the week for Georgia to beat Florida the last time they did, back in 2004. The only other time since 1990 that Georgia has won this game was 1997, the year after Florida won its first national championship. We are now presented in 2007 with the same situation. Does that mean Georgia’s time has come once again?

The answer is a solid maybe. A lot probably depends on how the quarterbacks of the teams grow this year. Matthew Stafford was decidedly uneven in his performance as a freshman, and Tim Tebow basically was a running back who occasionally did halfback option passes. Stafford had to beat out three other guys to become the starter last year, but now is the undisputed top guy at the position. Tebow was Chris Leak’s backup and change of pace guy, but now is the undisputed top guy at the position. While Stafford probably won’t ever get pulled other than in the second half against Western Carolina (and maybe Troy), Tebow will likely come out of games for brief periods in favor of Cameron Newton. Urban Meyer said he plans to continue the two-quarterback system, and last year said that one of the reasons he did it was so he could talk to the QBs face-to-face on the sideline.

One point of intrigue is Mike Bobo. Mark Richt let the former Bulldog QB call plays for the last two games of 2006, both wins, and plans on doing the same this year. Will he remain as successful as the season goes along and defensive coaches get more film of his strategy? Bobo has said that he plans on establishing the run first, which makes sense because Georgia has a lot of depth at running back and no depth at receiver. While Georgia’s offensive line will be young, it will probably end up being fine. This game will present a big challenge to the Gators’ young front seven.

Georgia is doing a bit of rebuilding on defense after it gave up more than 24 points only once in 2006. It’s not nearly as extensive as what Florida is going through, having lost nine starters, but it may be a concern for the Bulldogs this year. In fact, Georgia’s best cornerback was declared academically ineligible and entered the NFL supplemental draft. This news should make any Gator fan perk up because Florida is loaded on offense this year, especially at receiver. While rivalry games never seem to turn out the way they should on paper, Florida should have noticeable success on offense against Georgia.

This brings up a good point: this is a rivalry game. While it has been eclipsed in recent years by the rivalry with FSU, and some might even argue Tennessee, it is still Florida’s oldest and most traditional rivalry. Young Gator fans like myself almost take it for granted that Florida will beat Georgia, just as sure as Phil Fulmer is fat at it always gets freezing cold in Gainesville the week of the FSU game (or at least it seems like it does). Older, I mean, um, more experienced Gator fans relish every victory as payback for the many years where the Bulldogs beat up on the Gators seemingly every year. Georgia fans have completely lost their minds over this game though, going as far as “taunting” myself and my fellow Gator Band members in 2005 saying, “You should have won by more!” The atmosphere and split stands in Jacksonville also make for a very special weekend every year.

I’ll tell you one Gator who doesn’t take a win in this game for granted is Urban Meyer. He is an unthinkable 6-0 so far in rivalry games (versus Tennessee, Georgia, and FSU). His only loss in the state of Florida was in 2002 when Bowling Green lost at USF. The winner of this game probably won’t be guaranteed to be in the SEC title game with Tennessee and South Carolina expected to be better, but the loser almost certainly will need help to get to Atlanta. With so much on the line, I have to expect that Meyer will find a way to win this game. Georgia has more overall experience, but Florida is the more talented team. No one maximizes talent like Urban Meyer does, so if my earlier prediction is correct, he will improve to 8-0 in rivalry games following this one.

November 3: Vanderbilt (HC)

After inexplicably having LSU for homecoming last year (on the first weekend of October, no less), Florida returns things to normal and has homecoming in November against an SEC bottom feeder. Well, sort of.

Vanderbilt probably will finish last in the SEC East again. It was the only SEC East team not to go to a bowl last year (which is pretty incredible, when you think about it). Bobby Johnson has had the Commodores respectable the past couple of years, and last year proved it wasn’t just Jay Cutler doing it. Chris Nickson has come in and is one of the more dangerous guys in the conference for both sides. He can be electric with his running and passing, but he was erratic at times and committed more turnovers than he would have liked. With Earl Bennett and George Smith to throw to, he has a couple of the best targets in the league.

Vandy is a team that seems to play Florida well, at least a lot better than it should play. Urban Meyer has had particular trouble with the ‘Dores, needed double overtime to win his first game with them, and winning by just 6 points last year. Florida and Vandy have played every year since 1992, a side effect of the SEC expansion and introduction of divisions, and the results have been as follows: Florida wins by 10 or more happened 10 times, Florida wins by fewer than 10 happened 5 times, and wins by Vandy did not happen.

So, about once every three years, Vandy gives Florida a serious run for its money. It’s either an aberration that two of those five close Florida wins have come in the last two years, or it’s a sign that Vanderbilt is getting better. I lean towards the latter. The talent at Vandy is as higher this year than I can ever remember it being, and Johnson has done about as well as can be expected at a private college with no athletic director (yes, really) playing in the toughest football conference in the country. Vandy had a couple of really close losses last year, and should have gone to a bowl in 2005 except that it inexplicably lost to a bad Kentucky team.

So where am I going with this? Well, I don’t think that it will be a repeat of 2005, but I don’t think it will be a blowout either. It will probably play to the standard script, where Vanderbilt stays close longer than it should and Florida pulls away at the end. How much the Gators can pull away depends on how well the defense can keep Vanderbilt’s offense from moving the ball. In addition to Nickson, Bennett, and Smith, Vandy has a fairly good running back tandem with Jeff Jennings and Cassen Jackson-Garrison. If those two stay healthy, it will open up opportunities in the passing game and allow Nickson to spend less time running around like he did last year.

I don’t think this is a winnable game for Vanderbilt. Even with everything Florida has lost and everything Vanderbilt has coming back, it’s still Vandy. The Commodores will struggle to win more than the four games they won last year. However, it won’t be a comfortable day for all the Gators groggy from Gator Growl and the festivities the night before.

Schedule Analysis: Part 3

Don’t forget to read Part 1 and Part 2.

October 6: at LSU

This is the big one. If there’s one obvious game for a Gators loss, this is it. LSU is generally considered to be one of the top-three elite teams for 2007, along with Southern Cal and Michigan.

LSU’s main strength is the defense. It has to replace both safeties, but it returns both cornerbacks (both seniors), and has a deeper and better defensive line than what Florida had going into last year (and that’s before Marcus Thomas was thrown off the team). Did I mention that all three linebackers return too? LSU should be in the top-five in every defensive category this season.

The offense does have some issues, mostly in the passing game. Head coach Les Miles brought in Gary Crowton from Oregon to install the spread option after offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher left for FSU, and as we saw at Florida, that offense can take some time to get working correctly. QB Matt Flynn looked great in torching a mediocre Miami team in the 2005 Peach Bowl, but he’s played sparingly ever since. Early Doucet is the only reliable receiver. The Tigers have plenty of running backs though, led by 10th-year senior Jacob Hester. Losing Alley Broussard hurts some because of his experience, but they still have plenty back there without him. If no one emerges alongside Doucet, Flynn could be spending most of his autumn handing off.

There also is the Les Miles factor. He’s proven himself as a loudmouth, but still an excellent recruiter. Most of Nick Saban’s recruits are gone, so now the program is all on him and his ability to develop those players he’s signed the last three years. Some, many from Oklahoma State where he came from, scoffed at the idea of Miles becoming a true big-time coach in the SEC, since his most notable accomplishments at OSU consisted of never winning 10 games, pulling off two improbable upsets of Oklahoma, and lying about talking to LSU officials before taking the Tigers’ head coaching job. By all accounts, Urban Meyer is a better coach than Miles is.

Will this be 2005 again, where LSU squeaks out a victory? Or will it be 2003, when Florida played a perfect game and stole one from the favored and more-talented Tigers? I don’t know, but I do know that either team can win this game. It will be awfully tough, even with the surplus of playmakers, for the Gator offense to make up for the inexperience of the defense. I don’t think Florida is deep or experienced enough to go undefeated, so this looks like the most obvious game for a loss.

October 20: at Kentucky

The Gators get a week off before travelling to Lexington to face Kentucky. Normally Florida plays UK the fourth game of the year, and I don’t remember hearing why it was moved to the middle of the year.

This game is not a de facto second week off in a row like it has been in years past. Kentucky has the preseason first-team all-SEC quarterback in Andre Woodson, who led the league in passing by almost 400 yards over second place JaMarcus Russell. In addition, they have the SEC’s fifth-leading receiver of 2006 returning in Keenan Burton, and the 12th-leading receiver Dicky Lyons is also back. Last year, UK made it to its first bowl game since 1999 on the strength of its offense.

This game will be a big test for the Gators’ pass coverage, even perhaps moreso than the LSU game. Rich Brooks saved his job last year, much to many Wildcats fans’ chagrin, but he probably will need to go to another bowl game this year to really feel safe, especially considering what he has coming back on offense. Beating Florida for the first time since 1986 would be huge for Brooks, not only in ensuring his job security but also in winning some fan support.

The big problem for Kentucky is that its defense is abysmal. The Wildcats finished 118th in total defense and 99th in scoring defense last year. That just won’t get it done in a conference that prides itself on defense, and it really says a lot when the offenses in said conference often atrophy at the expense of head coaching focus on defense. In addition, Florida has enormous intangibles going in this game. As I said, UK hasn’t beaten UF since 1986. There always seems to be something, whether it was Florida’s improbable 4th-quarter comeback in 2003 to the Doering’s Got a Touchdown game in 1993 that keeps Florida winning. Of course, having vastly superior teams for much of the past two decades has kept the Gators winning too, sometimes with comical margins (73-7 in 1994, or 65-0 in 1996).

Florida will probably give up more points than Gator fans would like, but really there’s no reason for Florida not to win this game comfortably. Even though Florida didn’t play that well against Kentucky last year, Urban Meyer had no problems in winning at Kentucky 49-28 in 2005. Florida has more than enough offensive weapons to score plenty of points, and Kentucky just doesn’t have the personnel to cause enough problems for Florida’s defense to be in the game at the end.