Some Kentucky Talk

It’s been over a week since I did a post directed solely about the Gators, and that’s too long.

The opponent of this week is Kentucky, whose position in the polls has been more up and down than the Reitz Union elevator. The Cats started unranked, jumped into the polls at 21 after beating Louisville, jumped up to 14 after beating Arkansas, got as high as 8 before losing to South Carolina knocked them down to 17, but defeating LSU got them back up to 8.

By reasonable standards, Kentucky has played three games against decent or better opponents: Louisville, South Carolina, and LSU. You can argue Arkansas if you want, but the Pigs have no defense at all this year. Kentucky had the advantage of facing Louisville and LSU at home, and it won those games; Kentucky had to travel to South Carolina and lost. Clearly, Kentucky is a better team at home, as most teams are.

Well, if you look at it, Kentucky executed two exciting and memorable escapes to beat Louisville and LSU. If Louisville had any secondary at all, UK probably doesn’t win that game. If Matt Flynn played a decent game at all, LSU probably wins that game in regulation. Kentucky’s success is built on what ifs.

Now, some are saying that Kentucky has a physical defense this year. The Wildcats defense is certainly improved, clocking in at 60th and 64th in total and scoring defense. But is it a balanced defense? Stats say no – Kentucky is 27th in pass defense but 99th in run defense. That means the rushing attack that Florida abandoned in the second half against LSU is the very ticket to success on Saturday.

You can believe that Urban Meyer and his staff have figured this out. We should see a steady diet of Kestahn Moore, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Jarred Fayson carrying the ball with just enough passing to keep Kentucky honest and prevent it from just stacking the box. Rich Brooks has done a lot to improve that defense, but there’s only so much you can do in one year. For Florida to win, rushing is the way to go.