Coaches’ Contracts: Overrated?

In my world, there’s a scent of irony floating through that just as I begin a series on coach contracts, we come to find out that not everyone thinks they’re necessary.

Penn State and Joe Paterno have decided after weeks of hand wringing over him having just one year left on his contract that he doesn’t need one. PSU’s position is that his seniority is supposed to speak for itself, a contract is “not necessary or practical,” and not having a contract doesn’t imply a retirement date. Paterno, for his part, says that he doesn’t need a contract, trusts the university to do the right thing, and that if he needed a contract in order to keep his job then he’s in the wrong place.

Whether it speaks for itself or not, his seniority is certainly self-evident.

Across the border in West Virginia, neither Bill Stewart nor Bob Huggins has a contract with WVU. Apparently both have handshake and verbal agreements with AD Ed Pastilong that they won’t leave, and they are only bound by term sheets that outline their pay. Granted, term sheets can be binding legal contracts (and are in this case), but they don’t cover nearly as many legal contingencies as contracts do. They’re just bullet point outlines, after all.

Stewart and Huggins are West Virginia natives and each has known Pastilong for more than 30 years. Perhaps this is a special case in which contracts are not needed. Given Stewart’s coaching history and age, it’s unlikely that a school like a Michigan will come to poach him, and he doesn’t even have an agent. They’re probably fine with him. Huggins is a more difficult case; it’s not so much that he’d leave for greener pastures soon, but his history of misconduct should raise red flags to anyone with a proper risk management policy regardless of personal histories.

West Virginia should know better, given the messy departures of both John Beilein and another West Virginia native, Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s contract clearly states beginning on page 22 the terms of his buyout. The only way he could take another coaching job before August 31, 2008 and not have to pay the buyout is if WVU breached the contract. The agreement has no room for ambiguity there. Yet, thanks to an alleged verbal agreement with Pastilong that the buyout wouldn’t be enforced, the university is now trapped in court and no doubt spending quite a bit on legal fees trying to get the money that Rodriguez is contractually obliged to pay. Rodriguez said the school didn’t fulfill promises it has made to him over the years, but without them being in writing, I doubt he’ll win his case in court.

Rich Rodriguez: willing to fight in court to save Michigan boosters $4 million that they likely are more than willing to pay. Image CC by Flickr user CA2.

The proceedings with Beilein and Rodriguez should be enough evidence for the school that having all agreements be in writing is by far the best way to go. As I said, I don’t anticipate Stewart leaving for another job, but what if T. Boone Pickens throws a mountain of cash at Huggins after the guy who replaces Sean Sutton gets fired? Huggins’ term sheet has a $1 million buyout, but no one knows what handshakes and verbal agreements might be on the side.

The rumblings up at Penn State say that a movement to get Paterno out is building steam. The only thing allowing him to coach as long as he wants at this point is the desire of Penn State not to look bad for pushing a legend out the door. Based on how shameless big time college football powers have become lately, that may not be enough. At least the school hasn’t gone so far as to try to silence critics of Paterno.

In this day and age where legal ninjas roam the countryside, the importance of written contracts should be self-evident. The potential for ugliness is greater at Penn State, but I hope WVU doesn’t make a habit of this, or we’ll probably end up with more never-ending coach litigation sagas, and no one wants that.

A legal ninja (artist’s conception).

Did the BCS Get it Right? Part II

Yesterday, I examined whether in hindsight the BCS got the national championship game participants right. As I have pointed out in the past though, that’s only half of the BCS’s mission:

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a five-game arrangement for post-season college football that is designed to match the two top-rated teams in a national championship game and to create exciting and competitive matchups between eight other highly regarded teams in four other games.

So, did it get the second half correct?

The Sugar Bowl

Participants: 10-2 Georgia vs. 12-0 Hawaii

Result: Georgia 41 - Hawaii 10

This game sure set the tone for the 2008 rendition of the BCS. It was unwatchable unless you are a Dawg or you just liked seeing Hawaii get its comeuppance for actually thinking it belonged in the BCS and then daring to be sanctimonious about it. I feared for Colt Brennan’s life at times, and this game spooked June Jones so much that he actually willingly took the job at SMU.

The Rose Bowl

Participants: 9-3 Illinois vs. 10-2 USC

Result: USC 49 - Illinois 17

This game had the largest margin, and honestly USC could have made it even bigger if it wanted to. Illinois was overmatched from the start, and the Trojans just kept pouring it on as the Illini kept giving the ball away. From everything I’ve read, the nation wanted to see Georgia in this game, but that was kept from happening by two main things: 1) the BCS rules made it so the Sugar would’ve had to give permission to the Rose to take UGA, which it did not, and 2) the Rose Bowl officials think it’s 1960 and believe that there’s nothing better than a Big Ten/Pac 10 matchup.

Illinois had to be in a game somewhere since it finished in the top 14 and was the only eligible team left after you accounted for Hawaii’s auto bid and Georgia and Kansas’ selections. However, it should have been in a game versus someone around its talent level such as Hawaii, Kansas, or Virginia Tech. Note: it’s pretty sad if definite tiers can be seen within the BCS, but that’s the way it goes with the BCS.

The Fiesta Bowl

Participants: 10-2 West Virginia vs. 10-2 Oklahoma

Result: West Virginia 48 - Oklahoma 28

This game was probably not as close as the score indicates, though not nearly to the same degree as the Rose Bowl. The conventional wisdom said that OU had the better talent and was on a roll, as opposed to the poor old Mountaineers who had inexplicably lost to Pitt, keeping them out of the title game, and had lost head coach Rich Rodriguez. Instead, WVU rolled to a comfortable victory, and Bob Stoops’ bowl record now suddenly looks a lot like Larry Coker’s does.

The Orange Bowl

Participants: 10-2 Virginia Tech vs. 11-1 Kansas

Result: Kansas 24 - Virginia Tech 21

This one was the only actual close game, but it was the bad kind of close. Poor offensive execution by both sides hamstrung progress for these two defensive-minded teams, and yet each scored multiple touchdowns. This game proved that Kansas was good but not overwhelmingly so, and that VT (and by proxy, the ACC) probably just was not that good this year. That is all I have to say about the Orange Bowl.

The BCS National Championship Game

Participants: 11-2 LSU vs. 11-1 Ohio State

Result: LSU 38 - Ohio State 24

Ohio State got a garbage time TD late against an LSU prevent defense to keep within three scores, though the game really wasn’t that close after the first quarter. Again the SEC champion embarrassed Big Ten champ OSU in the biggest game of the year, turning the BCS’s experiment of having a special 5th game for the championship into a blowout-fest.

This game technically doesn’t fall under the second part of the BCS mandate, but the fact that it ended up a one-sided blowout reinforces the fact that the first part was botched.

Conclusion

So did the BCS fulfill its mission of creating exciting and competitive matches in the non-championship games? Absolutely not. Only one game (Orange Bowl) was competitive, and none were terribly exciting. As a showcase for the sport, the BCS gets a rating of “EPIC FAIL” for the 2008 bowl season.

Welcome to the Big Leagues, Colt

Last night’s Sugar Bowl was immensely satisfying. I have been sick and tired of the Colt Brennan hype machine since, oh, about last year’s bowl season. It got even worse when Hawaii plundered the bakery that is the WAC and somehow played an even worse non-conference schedule to finish the season undefeated. I didn’t want to see him get injured (although Georgia’s defense appeared to be trying to accomplish just that with as many fearsome hits as it delivered), but to see him humbled on the national stage was great, and possibly even good for him as he heads into draft workouts.

I found an article at Foxsports.com with some quotes of his, and I’d like to share them with you now:

• “When you play against a team like this, you can’t miss a beat. We didn’t do that.”

No joke, Colt. When your whole team has 4 guys who might in a dream scenario play in the NFL, you have to absolutely perfect because every mistake becomes a sack, turnover, or touchdown for the other team.

• “We knew coming in this was probably the best defense we’d ever faced. We really wanted to do something special here tonight, but we just couldn’t get any momentum going. We have a lot of drives that didn’t go anywhere. It wasn’t so much a question of X’s and O’s. They just won the battles all night.”

Perhaps, but your X’s and O’s guru on the sidelines also had a hard time not calling slow-developing pass plays despite the fact you became intimately familiar with the inner workings of the “Sportexe Momentum 41” playing surface of the Superdome.

• “Everybody knows the SEC is the fastest league in the country. We just couldn’t simulate that in practice with our scout team.”

Self-explanatory. It’s similar to Billy Donovan’s comments about Marresse Speights and Alex Tyus - they’re suffering in practice because there’s no one else on the team like them to hone their skills against. Okay, back to football.

• “We had never played in this type of element before. We tried as hard as we could to keep everything the same as we have all season long, but it just seemed like we weren’t used to the venue as big the Super Dome. Georgia plays in this kind of environment in the SEC every week all season.”

If anyone has questioned whether playing on big stages every week helps teams of the major conferences, here’s your proof that it does make a difference. Hawaii started 1st and 20 on its opening drive due to penalties, and it was all downhill from there. Before you bring up Boise State last year, remember that the Broncos had a similar harrowing experience at the hands of Georgia in Sanford Stadium in 2006, and BSU regularly plays at Pac 10 venues.

• “We have done a good job most of the year protecting Colt,” [Head Coach June] Jones said. “But they had eight sacks and a couple of times we didn’t touch anybody. They just blew in and whacked him.”

Well said, June. That about sums up the 2008 Sugar Bowl.

If last year’s Fiesta Bowl set up this season’s craziness from week to week, this year’s Sugar Bowl most likely sets up next year as a season of juggernauts. Florida, Georgia, and maybe LSU in the SEC, Ohio State in the Big Ten, Oklahoma, Missouri, and maybe Texas in the Big 12, and USC in the Pac 10 all appear set to dominate next season.

West Virginia in the Big East would have counted if Rich Rodriguez had stayed, and then Pat White and Steve Slaton would have stayed as well. If WVU hires former Rodriguez assistant and spread option fan Butch Jones away from Central Michigan, and Jones can convince White and Slaton to stay, they might yet have a chance. After all, Jones molded Dan LeFevour into only the second guy to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season, Vince Young being the first.

Virginia Tech will likely be the titan of the ACC, but the rest of that conference save Boston College is so bad, it’d be difficult to tell if the Hokies are really that good. BC won’t qualify as a juggernaut because it wasn’t one this year and is losing its senior starting QB Matt Ryan. No one else in the conference will clock in as better than “surprisingly good.”

A Brief History of the Post-Season in America

I am going to be doing a haphazardly-published series on playoffs and college football. I would prefer to see a playoff decide a champion rather than polls,  for the record. This is the first in the series.

The longest-running post-season event in major American professional sports is baseball’s World Series. The first one was in 1903, when the National League and American League, then two completely separate entities, organized under the mantle of Major League Baseball. Each league’s champion played a best-of-9 series to determine the overall champion. The necessity for this playoff was the fact that AL and NL teams didn’t play each other during the regular season. After a dispute canceled the series in 1904, it returned in 1905 and would be played every year since except the strike-shortened 1994 season.

The next-oldest professional post-season event is the NHL Playoffs, as the league has had some sort of playoff determining a champion every year since its inception in 1917. The lone except is 1920, when the Ottawa Senators won both halves of the regular season and the league decided a playoff would be unnecessary. The league’s regular season system was strange up until that point; read the Wikipedia page linked to above for details.

After that, you have the NFL playoffs. The NFL was founded in 1920, but from its founding until 1932, no playoffs were held. From 1920 to 1923, the champion was selected by the owners voting at the annual owners meeting. From 1924 to 1932, the team with the highest winning percentage won the championship as the teams all played different numbers of games. In 1932, the Chicago Bears and Portsmouth Spartans tied for the lead in winning percentage, so a one game playoff was thrown together hastily to determine a champion.

Responding to fan interest in the game, the NFL split itself into two divisions (East and West) in 1933. From then on, playoff games were held if necessary as tiebreakers and then the east and west division winners played in a championship game. A consistent tournament to determine who got to play in the NFL title game was not held until 1967 when the league expanded to 16 teams. The first Super Bowl was played in 1967 as a championship game between the NFL and AFL winners, and it became the NFL championship game after the AFL/NFL merger in 1970.

The NBA playoffs have occurred every year since the precursor BAA league was founded in 1947. The league had east and west divisions from the start, and at least the top three teams from each division have appeared in the playoffs every year. Perhaps the relatively late founding of the NBA allowed it to observe the other leagues and set up a proper playoff tournament from the start.

The NCAA

The precursor to what we know as the NCAA was the Intercollegiate Athletic Association of the United States (IAAUS). It was founded by Teddy Roosevelt after his son broke his collarbone playing football at Harvard while running the offense known as the flying wedge. The idea was to have a governing body setting rules for collegiate sports to cut back on the injuries and yes, deaths, being experienced by college athletes. The organization took the name NCAA in 1910.

The NCAA at first was a a discussion group and rule-setting club until 1921, when the first NCAA championship was officially recognized: the National Collegiate Track and Field Championships won by Illinios. In the years since, it has come to sponsor 44 women’s, 41 men’s, and 3 coed championships.

The only sanctioned sport without a recognized champion is Division I-A football, a.k.a. the Football Bowl Subdivision. Only in the sport of football is a relevant distinction made between multiple parts of Division I.

Bowl Games

As we all know, I-A football uses a system of bowl games as its post-season fare. They were originally a method of attracting tourists for the areas in which they were played, and they were scheduled around the new year to give fans time to plan trips and travel to the site.

The first bowl game was the “Rose Bowl” of 1902. I put it in quotes because while it was put on by the  Tournament of Roses, it was called the “Tournament East-West Football Game.” It featured a dominant Michigan team versus a decent Stanford team, and it ended in the third quarter when Stanford quit while trailing 49-0. The Tournament of Roses was so scarred by the blowout, it wouldn’t sponsor a football game again until 1916. The game wouldn’t take on the name “Rose Bowl” until 1923 when the stadium known as the Rose Bowl was completed and hosted the game. Fun fact: it wasn’t actually a bowl stadium at the time, but a horseshoe stadium.

The Rose Bowl pitted a team from the Pacific Coast Conference (the predecessor to the Pac 10) and an eastern US team up until 1947, when the champions of what are now the Pac 10 and Big Ten became the annual contestants. It was the only major bowl until 1930, and the oldest surviving bowl games besides the Rose are the Sugar, Orange, and Sun Bowls, all founded in 1935. Besides those, the Cotton (1937), Gator (1946), and Florida Citrus (1947) are the only bowls that have been held consistently for more than 50 years. The first major bowl with a title sponsor was the (in)famous Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl, operating under that name from 1990-1996.

Football Playoffs

Up until 1973, the NCAA had two divisions - the University Division, roughly football’s Division I, and the College Division, roughly football’s Divisions II and III. In 1973, the I-II-III system was set up, and Divisions II and III immediately began holding playoff tournaments for football. Division I did not, however, set up a playoff tournament thanks to the tradition of the bowls and polls.

In 1978, the NCAA partitioned Division I into three divisions: I-A for the principal football schools, I-AA for the lesser football schools, and I-AAA for the Division I schools that did not play football. Division I-AA from its inception has had some sort of playoff tournament, probably because none of its participating schools would be bowl material. This fact confirms that the real reason I-A has no playoffs is due to the bowls; every other excuse given (demands on players, the sanctity of the regular season, etc.) is secondary to the bowl games. The NCAA must have realized in the late ’70s that teams with no hope of making a bowl were playing meaningless seasons, so a separate division with playoffs included was created. No other reason for the existence of Division I subdivisions makes sense.

The Polls

The absence of an officially recognized champion of major college football naturally created a power vacuum of sorts that many organizations have been eager to fill in. The NCAA on its website keeps a record of every major poll service’s pick for national champion dating back to 1869. No polls existed at that time, but poll services such as Richard Billingsley, the National Championship Foundation, and Parke Davis have gone back and somehow come up with champs for all those years.

The two oldest surviving polls are the AP poll and the Coaches’ Poll, the latter initially being published by UPI before being taken over by the USA Today in 1991. The AP poll began in 1936, but it didn’t release a post-bowl season poll until 1965, and it wouldn’t do so on a consistent basis until 1968. The Coaches’ poll, for its part, began in 1950 and didn’t release post-bowl season polls until 1974.

Over time, mathematicians began taking cracks at making polls since human-based opinion polls can be influenced by bias, ignorance, and misinformation. The BCS has used a variety of them over its decade of existence, but the ones used today are Jeff Sagarin’s ELO-CHESS, Richard Billingsley, Anderson and Hester, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the Wes Colley Matrix. This group was chosen because they all do not rely on margin of victory.

One final human poll has come to prominence, the Harris Interactive Poll, after the AP pulled out of the BCS formula in 2005. The poll is made of former players, coaches, administrators, and current and former media members selected at random from a pool of candidates. Harris Interactive is a market research firm that specializes in opinion polls.

A National Title Game

For the most part, national champions for Division I/I-A football since 1950 are recognized to be the final #1 in the AP and Coaches’ Polls. That’s fine when they agree with each other, but what if they disagreed? You’d get two teams with equally legitimate claims at a title. How could one convince both
to vote for the same #1? Why, by having a national title game, of course.

The first attempt at creating a national title game was the formation of the Bowl Coalition. It consisted of the SEC, Big 8, SWC, ACC, and Big East partnering with the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, and Cotton Bowls. The idea was that the site of the national title game would rotate among the four bowls, and it’d take the #1 and #2-ranked teams from the AP and play them against each other. This setup might require the breaking of tie-ins of conference champions to their traditional bowls, but the Coalition agreement made that possible. It lasted from 1992-94.

You may notice the absence of the Pac 10, Big Ten, and Rose Bowl. They did not participate in the Coalition, and they kept their traditional arrangements with each other. This resulted in 1994 of  #1 Nebraska playing #3 Miami in the “national title game” while #2 Penn State played in the Rose Bowl.

Following the formation of the Big 12, the Bowl Coalition was replaced by the Bowl Alliance. It consisted of the SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Big East along with the Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta Bowls. The purpose and goal was the same as the Coalition’s, but the absence of the Pac 10, Big Ten, and Rose Bowl created the same problem. Twice a #1 vs. #3 game was forced to occur in the so-called national title game. It lasted from 1995-97.

In 1998, the three stubborn laggards finally came aboard to form the Bowl Championship Series. The goal was the same - have #1 and #2 play each other - only this time it would use the AP poll, Coaches’ Poll, and an index of computer polls to determine #1 and #2. Initially, strength of schedule and losses were their own categories, and in 2002 a quality win category was included as well.

By 2002, the BCS purged all computer models that included margin of victory to discourage teams from running up the score. However, it’s impossible to keep the human element from considering it, and margin of victory definitely plays a part in the human-generated polls. In 2004, it was streamlined to include just the human and computer polls with no other categories. In 2005, the Harris Poll replaced the AP poll. In 2006, the system was tweaked to deemphasize the computers, and the result has been that the human polls control the BCS formula almost completely. Only a huge anomaly in the computer element could override a unanimous human selection. That situation creates a Catch-22, since such an anomaly would likely cause an outrage, probably leading to further deemphasizing of the computers.

A Brief Timeline of the Post-Season in America

1902: The Tournament East-West Football Game

1903: The first World Series

1916: First annual Rose Bowl game

1917: NHL formed; first NHL playoffs

1921: First officially recognized NCAA championship

1932: First NFL Championship Game

1935: First annual Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Sun Bowl

1936: First AP Football Poll

1937: First annual Cotton Bowl

1939: First NCAA men’s basketball tournament, consisted of 8 teams

1946: First annual Gator Bowl

1947: First annual Florida Citrus Bowl

1947: Advent of NBA precursor; first annual NBA basketball playoffs

1950: First Football Coaches’ Poll

1965: First post-bowl season AP poll

1967: First Super Bowl

1968: First annual post-bowl season AP poll

1971: First annual Fiesta Bowl

1973: NCAA creates Divisions I, II, III; first annual D-II and D-III football playoffs

1974: First annual post-bowl season Coaches’ Poll

1978: NCAA creates Div. I-AA; first annual I-AA football playoffs

1984: NBA playoffs expands to current 16-team format

1985: NCAA men’s basketball tournament expands to 64 teams

1990: NFL playoffs expands to current amount of 12 teams

1992: Bowl Coalition formed

1992: SEC expands to 12 teams, plays first ever football conference championship game

1993: NHL playoffs expand to current format

1994: MLB institutes the wild card; World Series canceled due to strike

1995: Bowl Alliance formed

1996: Big 12 formed; first Big 12 Championship Game

1998: BCS formed

2001: NCAA men’s basketball tournament adds 65th team, play-in game

2002: NFL reorganizes to 8 divisions, drops one wild card per conference to keep playoffs at 12

2003: Split national title between LSU and USC; BCS formula completely rewritten

2004: NASCAR implements its “Chase for the Cup” quasi-playoff system

2005: ACC expands to 12 teams; first ACC Championship Game

2005: AP Poll drops out of BCS formula, Harris Poll is formed to replace it

SSOS Awards

Statistical Strength of Schedule (SSOS) has become a weekly feature of mine, and you can read the rationale and about how it’s calculated here.

I’ve got the final SSOS calculated, but I’m not done with the writeup and charts and all. In the meantime, enjoy these awards I just made up last night on an airplane. They’re based on the final numbers, which should be up sometime before Ragnarok.

The SSOS Champion: Best overall SSOS

WINNERS: Nebraska (team): 48.52 SSOS score; SEC (conference): 29.75 average rank

Huskers, even though you got torched constantly on defense, had a wildly inconsistent offense, and got your coach fired, at least you did it all against the nation’s toughest schedule.

The SEC showed just how tough it is by overcoming 10 games against I-AA opposition to win the conference battle comfortably over the Pac 10. No more whining about the SEC having weak out of conference opponents – the teams still graded out as having played the strongest schedules among the BCS conferences.

The SSOS Goat: Worst overall SSOS

WINNERS: Hawaii (team): 81.44 SSOS score; ACC (conference): 59.33 average rank

Hawaii, you’re a nice story and all with your BCS bid, but I hope you know it’s fraudulent with as easy of a schedule as you played. I know Michigan State pulled out of its game with you, but playing two teams below I-A will get you this award nearly every time. At least you play Florida next year.

ACC, by now you know that no one cares about your conference when FSU and Miami are having bad years. The attendance in Jacksonville a week ago proved that. However, your attempt to look better by playing the weakest overall schedule by far didn’t work because your teams really are that bad and that boring. Please try to play a real slate in the future, which means finding strength in your non-conference games because you sure won’t find it inside your conference.

Mr. Bland Award: For scheduling mediocrity

WINNERS: Wisconsin (team): ranked 60^th; Big Ten (conference)

Wisconsin, you finished exactly in the middle. There were 59 teams ahead of you, and 59 teams behind you. That is the perfect embodiment of middle-of-the-road. It makes sense considering your conference.

Big Ten, you finished with all of your teams in the second and third quintiles. No one particularly exerted itself, but no one took it easy either. It’s an interesting strategy, albeit one that gets you ranked second-to-last among the BCS conferences. Ohio State dropping Youngstown State picking up USC certainly helps, but don’t let the Buckeyes’ ambition steer you away from your dream of blandness. It suits you well.

Go Getter Award: Largest gap between the conference’s first and second place

WINNER: Syracuse

Syracuse, you win this one for having the toughest schedule in your conference and for finishing with the biggest gap between you and the second place team (Pitt) at 16 spots. Way to put the rest of your conference to shame. Perhaps this is why Greg Robinson still has a job.

Deadweight Award: Worst schedules in each conference

WINNERS: Georgia Tech, Kansas, UConn, Northwestern, USC, Arkansas

If not for you all, your conference’s scheduling marks would look a lot better. I hope you’re happy. Readers, please note that there are two teams here that made BCS bowls. I’m just saying.

Anchor Award: Worst schedule for a team in a BCS conference

WINNER: Kansas (112 rank, 74.92 score)

Kansas, you’re the only team in the country that played in a BCS conference and still managed to have a schedule in the bottom 20%. That’s not easy to do. Sure, it just so happened you missed Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech in your conference rotation, but few teams went to the bakery for bigger cupcakes than you did non-conference. Put it this way: throw out your numbers and the Big 12 has the toughest overall schedule for a conference; with them, it drops to third. Of course, that schedule is probably the main reason Kansas is in a BCS bowl, so the Jayhawks will probably make this a habit.

Deposed Nigerian Prince with an Email Account Award: Most fraudulent records

WINNERS: Boise State, Boston College, BYU, Hawaii, Kansas, UCF 

These are the teams who won at least 10 games with a schedule in the bottom two quintiles. Try to play some more notable teams in the future, will ya? Readers, please note that there are two teams here that made BCS bowls. I’m just saying.

BCS Projections

Before everyone gets their picks out, here’s my projections for the BCS:

BCS National Title Game: Ohio State and LSU

Rose Bowl: USC (auto) and Illinois

Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia and Oklahoma(auto)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (auto) and Missouri/Kansas

Sugar Bowl: Georgia and Hawaii

The designation (auto) indicates a conference champion tie-in that will happen by contract.

I project LSU to pass up Virginia Tech since the Tigers beat the Hokies 48-7 earlier this year. I project LSU to pass Georgia because they have identical records, but LSU won the conference while UGA didn’t even win the SEC East. USC won’t pass LSU because USC lost to Stanford. End of that discussion.

The Rose Bowl will take Illinois because it is desperate to set up a Pac 10/Big Ten game every year, and no one else will want the Illini.

The Sugar Bowl will take Georgia because it prefers to have an SEC team. Hawaii has no fans on the mainland, so it too will go to the Sugar Bowl (who has the last pick this year). The Fiesta will have to take Big East champ West Virginia since it won’t want an inter-Big 12 game.

Kansas has a better record than Missouri, but Mizzou won the division and its two losses were to conference champ Oklahoma. My guess is Missouri will get the bid since it is now more well-known than Kansas, but the Jayhawks’ 11-1 record could prove too compelling to pass up.

The only way this could be wrong is if the Fiesta somehow grabs Georgia ahead of the Sugar, sending West Virginia to the Orange and Missouri/Kansas to the Sugar.

As for the Gators, it’s 99% certain we’re in the Citrus Bowl versus Michigan.

Updated 8:25 am to reflect result of Washington - Hawaii game.

EDIT: I should mention that this would make for a terrible year for the BCS. West Virginia/Oklahoma would be the only game guaranteed to be any good, and that’s assuming Pat White will be healthy.

The OSU/LSU title game would obviously be the most hyped, for the teams as well as what’s at stake, but we will be seeing Ohio State up against a barrage of speedy skill players and a hellacious defensive line. Sound familiar? (Honk if you sacked Todd Boeckman!)

USC would thoroughly beat down Illinois. Georgia would thrash Hawaii. Remember that the Warriors play worse the farther east they go, and the last time they played in Louisiana, they eked out a 1 point win over La. Tech. Ouch. Virginia Tech and Missouri/Kansas might be a good game, a classic defense (VT) versus offense (M/K) game, but VT games somehow always end up boring. Unless you’re a Hokie (and maybe especially if you’re a Hokie) they just suck the life out of you as you watch. Plus, the Orange Bowl would have an extremely hard time selling out the stadium. So, if somehow the Orange gets to pick ahead of the Sugar, I wouldn’t be surprised at all for it to take Georgia for ticket selling purposes.

SSOS: Penultimate Week Edition

Statistical Strength of Schedule (SSOS) has become a weekly feature of mine, and you can read the rationale and about how it’s calculated here.

We’ve got two weeks left in the regular season, but if you think that means there’s not much movement left to do in the SSOS listings, you’re wrong. Wrong like watching all of the puntfests on TV today known as NFL games. Since I’m doing all of the family stuff tomorrow (it just worked out that way this year), I give you a Thanksgiving feast of stats. For the first time since I started these listings, someone other than Notre Dame is on top. Playing service academies will do that to you. The top 25:

1. Nebraska (+1)
2. Notre Dame (-1)
3. Washington (NC)
4. Syracuse (+3)
5. Colorado (-1)
6. Ole Miss (+13)
7. Iowa State (+
8. Stanford (+3)
9. Baylor (+4)
10. Tennessee (+1)
11. FIU (-6)
12. Maryland (+2)
13. Duke (-7)
14. Utah State (-5)
15. Mississippi State (+15)
16. Auburn (+1)
17. California (-7)
18. UNLV (+
19. Wyoming (+19)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Oregon (-3)
22. Texas A&M (-1)
23. Oklahoma State (-15)
24. Louisville (+15)
25. Kentucky (-3)

Full list: 11-17-07.pdf

SSOS by Losses

Note: Minnesota is the only team with 11 losses. The 11 loss category has been omitted for that reason. Once other teams join the Gophers there after this weekend, I will add in that too.

No shockers here, though the W shape in the middle is interesting. It also shows that the undefeated teams are the outliers, as well as the teams with 9 or more losses. Everyone else is somewhere in the middle, roughly near the average SSOS score for everyone.

This seems to confirm what I put forth last week, that overall schedule strength does not predict success unless you have an extraordinarily weak or difficult schedule. Is that true? Well, let’s look at another chart.

Average SSOS Rank by Losses

Well, we’ve got a much more pronounced W shape. It seems to suggest that of the teams that don’t reside on the extremes, there are more bad teams congregated in the 4 loss and 7-8 loss groupings than in others, because those teams together managed to lose more games than the overall trend would suggest they should.

Unsurprisingly, a quick scan of the 4 loss teams with easy-ish schedules reveals some of this year’s biggest disappointments - Arkansas, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Rutgers. Their schedules say they should be better, but those teams have some kind of flaw holding them back. For Arkansas, it’s the defense. For GT, it’s Chan Gainley’s soporific schemes.

The 7 and 8 loss realms are where you find some of the dregs of college football who are failing to win more games despite having relatively easy schedule - Temple, Tulane, Kent State, UL-Lafayette, Rice, and others. These are the teams that simply don’t have I-A talent, and they mess with the numbers. At least Notre Dame has gone 2-9 against the second most difficult schedule in the country; Northern Illinois has no excuse for compiling the same record against the 114th most difficult schedule.

Biggest Movers

This week’s top gainers:

1. Idaho (+27) played Boise State last week
2. Boston College (+26) Clemson
3. Cincinnati (+19) West Virginia
4. Kansas State (+19) Missouri
5. Texas Tech (+19) Oklahoma
6. Clemson (+17) Boston College
7. Army (+15) Tulsa
8. Louisville (+15) USF
9. Mississippi State (+15) Arkansas
10. Pitt (+15) Rutgers
11. SMU (+15) UCF
12. West Virginia (+15) Cincinnati

We’ve got a logjam at the bottom. As the sample size of games for each team grows with every passing week, the ability to move dramatically decreases. That is, of course, unless you’re in the WAC, ACC, and Big East apparently. Idaho made the week’s biggest leap after playing Boise State, and the BC-Clemson game and WVU-Cincinnati games both made each participant gain ground.

The week’s biggest fallers:

1. Colorado State (-31) Georgia Southern (I-AA)
2. UConn (-26) Syracuse
3. Wisconsin (-22) Minnesota
4. Central Michigan (-21) Eastern Michigan
5. UL-Lafayette (-20) FIU
6. Wake Forest (-19) NC State
7. New Mexico State (-1 Utah State
8. Iowa (-17) Western Michigan
9. Tulsa (-15) Army
10. Oklahoma State (-15) Baylor

Playing those conference bottom feeders can really mess a team up. Nothing you can do about it though. Serial offenders FIU and Utah State make appearances, along with a I-AA team.

SSOS by Conference

Total Average SSOS for all 119 Teams: 63.55

Best Schedule: Ole Miss, 6th overall, score of 50.34

Worst Schedule: Arkansas, 96th, 70.61

Average SOS Rank: 31.92

Average SOS Score: 57.92

Best Schedule: Washington, 3rd overall, score of 49.25

Worst Schedule: Arizona State, 89th, 68.83

Average SOS Rank: 34.70

Average SOS Score: 58.20

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 4th overall, score of 49.59

Worst Schedule: UConn, 86th, 67.93

Average SOS Rank: 41.63

Average SOS Score: 59.51

Best Schedule: Nebraska, 1st overall, score of 45.73

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 115th, 78.45

Average SOS Rank: 41.75

Average SOS Score: 59.44

Best Schedule: Michigan, 30th overall, score of 58.82

Worst Schedule: Northwestern, 68th, 64.67

Average SOS Rank: 50.73

Average SOS Score: 61.67

Best Schedule: Maryland, 12th overall, score of 54.09

Worst Schedule: Georgia Tech, 95th, 70.43

Average SOS Rank: 58.58

Average SOS Score: 63.13

The Big East continues its meteoric rise, from last a few weeks ago now up to third. That’s as high as its getting though, since the Pac 10 and SEC have such a big lead. The SEC, meanwhile has opened up a larger lead on the Pac 10, and with the SEC’s dead weight Arkansas playing LSU this weekend, it’s likely to get a better score on the whole.

The ACC, meanwhile, is falling behind. Not only is it a wholly uninspiring conference style-wise, but it is just playing bad football all around. That’s one drawback of living on the east coast - you get ACC teams on TV a lot.

One more interim week before the final standings.

This Week’s SSOS

Welcome EDSBS visitors, and thanks Orson for the link. Statistical Strength of Schedule (SSOS) has become a weekly feature of mine, and you can read the rationale and about how it’s calculated here.

The effect of conference play on BCS league teams is becoming readily apparent. Only 4 teams - Notre Dame, FIU, Utah State, and Colorado State - remain in the top quintile who do not play in BCS leagues, and Notre Dame plays almost nothing but BCS teams.

Before we dive into the numbers, I just want to highlight the Big 12. It’s been getting a lot of respect lately for having Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri at the top of the BCS standings. Well, no conference is quite as Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to scheduling as the Big 12. It has 7 teams in the top 36, but the remaining 5 teams are 70th or worse. That bottom 5 includes, not surprisingly, Missouri (70), Oklahoma (8 and Kansas (114). It’s big difference when you compare to #1 and #2, when LSU comes in at 28 and Oregon comes in at 18.

Enough preliminaries, time for the top 25:

1. Notre Dame (NC)
2. Nebraska (+1)
3. Washington (+1)
4. Colorado (-2)
5. FIU (NC)
6. Duke (NC)
7. Syracuse (+5)
8. Oklahoma State (+14)
9. Utah State (+
10. California (+15)
11. Stanford (-3)
12. Tennessee (+16)
13. Baylor (+10)
14. Maryland (+16)
15. Iowa State (-4)
16. Colorado State (NC)
17. Auburn (+2)
18. Oregon (-
19. Ole Miss (-4)
20. South Carolina (+1
21. Texas A&M (+7)
22. Kentucky (-1)
23. Washington State (-16)
24. Florida (+5)
25. USF (-16)

Full list: 11-10-07.pdf

SSOS by Losses

A continuing theme this year is the undefeated teams having extremely weak schedules relative to everyone else, and that, um, continues this week. Something I find interesting is that from 1 loss to 7 losses, everyone is roughly even. The 3 loss teams are slightly low, but it’s basically random. So, unless you have an exceptionally weak or exceptionally strong, your schedule doesn’t affect how many losses you rack up. This trend is a lot more pronounced in the average rank versus losses chart.

Average SSOS Rank versus Losses

The dropoff after 7 losses is quite dramatic, and the tougher schedules of the 3 loss teams are quite visible. Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida lead the way for the three loss teams with their top quintile schedules, followed by USF from the Big East and Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State from the Big Ten with their second quintile schedules.

Still, though, I have a hard time getting over just how easy of a time that Kansas and Hawaii have had it this season. They’re 114th and 119th, and Hawaii is 10 SSOS points worse than #118 Boise State. Of course the fact that BSU and Hawaii are the bottom two teams says a lot about the quality of the WAC this season.

Biggest Movers

This week’s top gainers:

1. Wake Forest (+30) played Clemson last week
2. UConn (+29) Cincinnati
3. Louisville (+29) West Virginia
4. Louisiana Tech (+23) LSU
5. Cincinnati (+22) Connecticut
6. TCU (+21) BYU
7. Army (+20) Rutgers
8. Fresno State (+20) Hawaii
9. UCLA (+20) Arizona State
10. Temple (+19) Penn State

This is the first time I’ve seen where two teams that played each other the past week end up in this category. Last week, there were several returning opponents from the week before that; this week, only Rutgers is repeated from last week.

The farthest fallers:

1. Georgia Tech (-29) Duke
2. UL-Monroe (-26) Grambling (I-AA)
3. New Mexico (-26) Colorado State
4. San Jose State (-26) New Mexico State
5. New Mexico State (-25) San Jose State
6. Oklahoma (-21) Baylor
7. UNC (-20) NC State
8. Air Force (-19) Notre Dame
9. Rutgers (-19) Army
10. UTEP (-19) Tulane
11. Virginia (-19) Miami (FL)

It amuses me to no end that Notre Dame and Miami are this big of a drag on someone’s schedule. It also surprises me that this late in the season one game can still make this much of a difference. NMSU and SJSU make it a double of teams that played each other being together on these mover lists. What was it I was saying about the WAC being bad this year?

SSOS by Conference

Total Average SSOS for all 119 Teams: 63.86

Best Schedule: Tennessee, 11th overall, score of 53.43

Worst Schedule: Arkansas, 95th, 70.48

Average SOS Rank: 33.08

Average SOS Score: 58.43

Best Schedule: Washington, 3rd overall, score of 48.70

Worst Schedule: USC, 86th, 68.95

Average SOS Rank: 35.20

Average SOS Score: 58.45

Best Schedule: Nebraska, 2nd overall, score of 46.05

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 114th, 77.28

Average SOS Rank: 46.00

Average SOS Score: 60.17

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 7th overall, score of 50.58

Worst Schedule: Pittsburgh, 68th, 65.28

Average SOS Rank: 46.25

Average SOS Score: 60.81

Best Schedule: Illinois, 33rd overall, score of 58.82

Worst Schedule: Northwestern, 71st, 65.82

Average SOS Rank: 48.45

Average SOS Score: 61.83

Best Schedule: Duke, 6th overall, score of 50.05

Worst Schedule: Boston College, 101st, 71.50

Average SOS Rank: 58.17

Average SOS Score: 63.18

The Big East actually passed the Big Ten, the ACC is alone at the bottom, and the SEC took back the complete title this week by .02 SSOS points. The Big Ten’s campaign of blandness - having no one in the top, fourth, or bottom quintile - continues but is not doing the league any favors.

SSOS For the Week

Still busy around these parts, and will continue to be as the semester goes on.

———–

The degree to which teams have backloaded their schedules is becoming apparent. Specifically, Ohio State is climbing, though I doubt the Buckeyes will reach the heights of where LSU and Oregon are right now by year’s end. LSU has some weak teams coming up, so this could be its last week in the top quintile. Anyway, read on for full details and a new chart. The top 25:

1. Notre Dame (NC)
2. Colorado (+1)
3. Nebraska (+3)
4. Washington (-2)
5. FIU (-1)
6. Duke (+5)
7. Washington State (+2)
8. Stanford (-1)
9. USF (+7)
10. Oregon (+13)
11. Iowa State (+6)
12. Syracuse (+2)
13. UNLV (NC)
14. LSU (+4)
15. Ole Miss (-10)
16. Colorado State (+16)
17. Utah State (+4)
18. Alabama (+16)
19. Auburn (-11)
20. NC State (+2)
21. Kentucky (-1)
22. Oklahoma State (+2)
23. Baylor (+3)
24. Oregon State (+7)
25. California (-7)

Full list:  11-03-07.pdf

SSOS by Losses

There appears to be a slight roller coaster  shape here, with a falling trend down to the 3 loss teams, rising up to the 5 loss teams, and then falling back down the rest of the way.

This result appears to be because there are a lot of 5-loss MAC teams at the moment, with Miami (OH), Toledo, Ball State, and Ohio all having 5 losses and bottom quintile schedules. You can also throw C-USA’s Memphis and the Sun Belt’s MTSU in there too.

The 3 loss teams are lower than they “should be” based on the shape, but that appears to be due to the amount of SEC teams with three losses. Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida all have 3 losses and top-30 schedules. You can also throw USF, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Cal in there too. The only significant drag on this bracket is Texas Tech with its 113th ranked schedule.

As for the undefeated teams? Well, there’s only 3 left, and only one is making progress. Ohio State has crawled up to the third quintile, but Kansas and Hawaii have the 116th and 119th-ranked schedules. The disparity here is noticeable in the above chart, but I don’t think it really drives home the point. That’s why I have a new chart:

Average SSOS Rank versus Losses

This time, we do the average SSOS rank for each loss category, rather than the average SSOS for the category. So, for the zero loss teams, you average together 70 (Ohio State), 116 (Kansas), and 119 (Hawaii) and get 101.67 for the average rank.

The roller coaster shape is even more dramatic here, and the gigantic scheduling gap between the undefeated teams and the rest is huge. It also appears that for teams with 5 or more losses, a very defined relationship exists tying SSOS rank and losses, but 0-4 losses is still pretty uneven.

Biggest Movers

The week’s top gainers:

1. Wisconsin (+39), played Ohio State last week
2. San Jose State (+31) Boise State
3. New Mexico (+24) TCU
4. Texas A&M (+22) Oklahoma
5. Vanderbilt (+22) Florida
6. Purdue (+21) Penn State
7. Cincinnati (+20) USF
8. UConn (+20) Rutgers
9. SMU (+19) Houston
10. Troy (+1 Georgia

Here we see a pretty standard situation of teams getting boosted by playing the top teams in their conferences. There are also some repeat booster teams, meaning that some of the opponents on the biggest movers list have also appeared as opponents on last week’s list, and they are Ohio State, Boise State, Florida, and Houston. This makes sense because Ohio State’s defense is the best statistically, Boise State is the one of the two best statistical teams in the otherwise weak WAC, and Florida and Houston have gaudy offensive stats.

The week’s top fallers:

1. Kansas State (-39) played Iowa State last week
2. Pittsburgh (-39) Syracuse
3. Arkansas State (-31) FIU
4. Miami (FL) (-27) NC State
5. Air Force (-25) Army
6. Fresno State (-23) Utah State
7. Miami (OH) (-22) Buffalo
8. UTEP (-22) Rice
9. Maryland (-1 UNC
10. UCF (-1 Marshall

The Wannstache avoids the top spot through the wonders of alphabetization, and we’ve also snared a pair of Miamis. There are three repeating schedule dead weights from last week: FIU, Marshall, and Iowa State. Sometimes, you just can’t avoid the dregs since they are already in your conference.

SSOS by Conference

Total Average SSOS for all 119 Teams: 64.23

Best Schedule: LSU, 14th overall, score of 54.11

Worst Schedule: Arkansas, 101st, 72.50

Average SOS Rank: 35.83

Average SOS Score: 59.10

Best Schedule: Washington, 4th overall, score of 47.53

Worst Schedule: USC, 100th, 72.22

Average SOS Rank: 37.30

Average SOS Score: 58.57

Best Schedule: Colorado, 2nd overall, score of 42.90

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 116th, 79.00

Average SOS Rank: 48.17

Average SOS Score: 60.56

Best Schedule: Penn State, 31st overall, score of 49.45

Worst Schedule: Ohio State, 70th, 66.33

Average SOS Rank: 49.45

Average SOS Score: 62.77

Best Schedule: USF, 9th overall, score of 51.81

Worst Schedule: UConn, 89th, 62.92

Average SOS Rank: 54.63

Average SOS Score: 62.95

Best Schedule: Duke, 6th overall, score of 56.08

Worst Schedule: Clemson, 105th, 73.58

Average SOS Rank: 56.08

Average SOS Score: 63.46

The ACC has fallen from 4th to last, and the SEC and Pac 10 are still splitting the lead in the same way as last week. The Big Ten pulled off quite the feat, having every team either in the second or third quintile, meaning no team is straining itself, but none is taking it completely easy either.

You can also look at the numbers and see that three tiers have emerged: the SEC and Pac 10 at the top, the Big 12 and Big Ten in the middle, and the Big East and ACC at the bottom. Based on what we’ve seen on the field, that’s about right.

SSOS This Week

On my travels, I found enough time to cobble together the SSOS for this week. Top 25:

1. Notre Dame (NC)
2. Washington (NC)
3. Colorado (+2)
4. FIU (+5)
5. Ole Miss (+1)
6. Nebraska (+2)
7. Stanford (-3)
8. Auburn (-5)
9. Washington State (-2)
10. Tennessee (NC)
11. Duke (+4)
12. Maryland (+13)
13. UNLV (+4)
14. Syracuse (+4)
15. San Diego State (+12)
16. USF (+5)
17. Iowa State (+6)
18. California (+4)
19. LSU (NC)
20. Kentucky (-
21. Utah State (-7)
22. NC State (+
23. Oregon (+24)
24. Oklahoma State (NC)
25. Florida (+6)

Full List: 10-27-07.pdf

Average SSOS By Losses

It’s a little more noisy now, but the huge gap between the unbeatens and everyone else is very apparent. Ohio State improved to 79th with its game against Penn State, but the other four undefeated teams are still in the triple digits. Arizona State stands to improve the most this week with its game against Oregon, but it will also have the toughest test with its game against Oregon.

The best 1-loss teams clearly are LSU and Oregon because they each have top quintile schedules (18 and 23, respectively) and they are just taking care of business with only a 3 overtime loss and a bizarre fumble through the endzone keep them from being undefeated.

Biggest Movers

The week’s biggest gainers:

1. Rutgers (+49) played West Virginia last week
2. Virginia Tech (+39) Boston College
3. Penn State (+35) Ohio State
4. Texas A&M (+34) Kansas
5. Northwestern (+31) Purdue
6. Fresno State (+30) Boise State
7. Georgia (+27) Florida
8. New Mexico State (+27) Hawaii
9. UTEP (+27) Houston
10. Arkansas State (+25) Troy

Biggest Fallers:

1. Navy (-56) Played Delaware (I-AA) last week
2. Louisiana Tech (-46) Utah State
3. BYU (-30) San Diego State
4. Arkansas (-27) FIU
5. Buffalo (-24) Akron
6. FSU (-23) Duke
7. MTSU (-23) North Texas
8. Rice (-23) Marshall
9. Missouri (-21) Iowa State
10. Utah (-21) Colorado State

SSOS by Conference

Total Average SSOS for all 119 Teams: 64.66

Best Schedule: Ole Miss, 3rd overall, score of 47.31

Worst Schedule: Arkansas, 108th, 74.44

Average SOS Rank: 37.83

Average SOS Score: 59.20

Best Schedule: Washington, 2nd overall, score of 41.88

Worst Schedule: USC, 110th, 75.41

Average SOS Rank: 40.20

Average SOS Score: 58.93

Best Schedule: Colorado, 3rd overall, score of 44.69

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 112nd, 76.66

Average SOS Rank: 47.67

Average SOS Score: 61.48

Best Schedule: Duke, 11th overall, score of 54.34

Worst Schedule: Boston College, 105th, 74.03

Average SOS Rank: 54.67

Average SOS Score: 63.99

Best Schedule: Illinois, 33rd overall, score of 60.83

Worst Schedule: Wisconsin, 85th, 69.19

Average SOS Rank: 55.91

Average SOS Score: 64.70

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 14th overall, score of 54.56

Worst Schedule: UConn, 109th, 74.63

Average SOS Rank: 56.63

Average SOS Score: 63.92

Everyone improved over last week. Even the teams at the bottom have better scores, even if their ranks didn’t improve much. The SEC and Pac 10 split the title this week, as the SEC had a better average rank, but the Pac 10 had a better average score. How’d that happen? Washington. The Huskies are a bit of an outlier with their 41.88 score. The entire list has no significant gaps except between the top 3 teams and #4, and between #117 and #118 Memphis, and then again between Memphis and #119 Hawaii. The conferences themselves have bunched up though, so the order could be volatile from here on out.