Surfing Through the SEC Football Schedules

The Gainesville Sun’s Robbie Andreu put out his preliminary projections for the SEC, and it got me thinking. I am not ready to put out my projections yet, mainly because there are too many good teams in the conference just to throw an order together right now. Projecting the SEC finish will take a lot of research.

I did end up looking at each school’s schedule, mainly focusing on the non-conference games. If you haven’t yet done that, you’ll be glad to know that the SEC schedules this year are less cupcake-y than past years.

For the record, I am fine with schools raiding the bakery for fundraiser games a couple times a year, but I do expect BCS schools to play at least one BCS opponent. I also think playing I-AA teams is inexcusable except for the very best I-AA teams, like Appalachian State, which are better than the Utah States and FIUs of I-A anyway.

Here’s a rundown of the SEC non-conference schedules, in alphabetical order:

ALABAMA

BCS Opponent: @ Clemson (Aug. 30)

Cupcakes: Tulane (Sept. 6), Western Kentucky (Sept. 13), Arkansas State (Nov. 1)

ARKANSAS

BCS Opponent: @ Texas (Sept. 13)

Respectable Non-BCS: Tulsa (Nov 1)

Cupcake: Louisiana-Monroe (Sept. 6)

I-AA: Western Illinois (Aug. 30)

AUBURN

BCS Opponent: @ West Virginia (Oct. 23)

Respectable Non-BCS: Southern Miss (Sept. 6)

Cupcake: Louisiana-Monroe (Aug. 30)

I-AA: Tennessee-Martin (Nov. 8 )

FLORIDA

BCS Opponents: Miami (Sept. 6), @ FSU (Nov. 29)

Respectable Non-BCS: Hawaii (Aug. 30)

I-AA: The Citadel (Nov. 22)

GEORGIA

BCS Opponents: @ Arizona State (Sept. 20), Georgia Tech (Nov. 29)

Respectable Non-BCS: Central Michigan (Sept. 6)

I-AA: Georgia Southern (Aug. 30)

KENTUCKY

BCS Opponent: Louisville (Aug. 31)

Cupcakes: Middle Tennessee (Sept. 13), Western Kentucky (Sept. 27)

I-AA: Norfolk State (Sept. 6)

LSU

Respectable Non-BCS: Troy (Sept. 6)

Respectable I-AA: Appalachian State (Aug. 30)

Cupcakes: North Texas (Sept. 13), Tulane (Nov. 1)

OLE MISS

BCS Opponent: @ Wake Forest (Sept. 6)

Cupcakes: Memphis (Aug. 30), Louisiana-Monroe (Nov. 15)

I-AA: Samford (Sept. 13)

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BCS Opponent: @ Georgia Tech (Sept. 20)

Cupcakes: Louisiana Tech (Aug. 30), Middle Tennessee (Oct. 25)

I-AA: Southeastern Louisiana (Sept. 6)

SOUTH CAROLINA

BCS Opponents: NC State (Aug. 28), @ Clemson (Nov. 29)

Cupcake: UAB (Sept. 27)

I-AA: Wofford (Sept. 20)

TENNESSEE

BCS Opponent: @ UCLA (Sept. 1)

Cupcakes: UAB (Sept. 13), Northern Illinois (Oct. 4), Wyoming (Nov. 8 )

VANDERBILT

BCS Opponents: Duke (Oct. 25), @ Wake Forest (Nov. 29)

Cupcakes: Miami University (Aug. 28), Rice (Sept. 13)

* * *

Only LSU doesn’t have a BCS opponent. Alabama, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt do not have I-AA opponents. LSU should not lose anything for playing Appalachian State, though, especially because Mountaineer fans have already begun predicting a victory on Charlotte sports talk radio.

LSU’s slate is the only one I’d call “shameful” in the bunch, though I am not happy about all of the non-App State I-AA teams you see listed. However, until the NCAA reverses the rule and stops allowing wins over I-AA teams to count towards bowl eligibility, those games are sadly inevitable.

Coaches’ Contracts: Rich Brooks

The parade of SEC coach contract analysis continues on with Rich Brooks’s contract with Kentucky.

The tidy, 19-page contract between the University of Kentucky and Richard L. Brooks is interesting, but not because it has a lot of unintentionally funny legalese throughout it. It also goes beyond the fact that page 14 of it somehow got moved from between pages 13 and 15 to the end, after the signature page.

First of all, it indicates that Kentucky is serious about fielding a competitive football team within the SEC and will reward the coach handsomely for doing so. He gets a performance bonus of $50,000 each for his fifth and sixth SEC wins of a season, and $75,000 each for his seventh and eighth SEC wins in a season. He also gets $100,000 for winning the division. So, winning all 8 SEC games would give him $350,000 right there, more ten times as much as Mark Richt would get for winning all 8 SEC games and activating his SEC East championship bonus. If he wins the SEC championship game, that’s another $200,000. His non-BCS bowl bonuses are tied to the payout of the game.

Beyond the on-field bonuses he gets, Brooks also gets some for off-field achievements. If gross ticket revenue increases from the previous year, he gets 10% of that increase. So, if UK ups their ticket prices, you can bet he’s behind that all the way. In terms of academics, his bonuses are tied to a cumulative team GPA above 2.75, and curiously a minimum .925 Academic Progress Rate. If you’re not familiar with that, it’s an NCAA stat based on graduation rates, and if your team goes below .925 it loses scholarships. The academic bar is clearly not set that high.

Rich Brooks applauds his team for not flunking out of school in droves, thereby earning him up to an extra $55,000. Any picture of Rich Brooks in UK gear must really unnerve Oregon fans.

One of the key arguments in the Rich Rodriguez contract dispute with WVU is an allegation by Rodriguez that the school promised him they’d upgrade the facilities, but the school has yet to do that. He should have borrowed Rich Brooks’s agent then, because Brooks had university-provided “improvements to the Football Program” written right into his contract. The lesson, as always, is that if you want something done you need to have it in writing.

There really isn’t much else to note, other than the use of fake-sounding words like “effectuate,” because this is a remarkably clear and concise contract. If you’re wondering about any mentions of the basketball program, because this is Kentucky we’re talking about and I know you are, he gets four tickets to every home game. That’s the only mention of basketball in the whole thing.

Selected Quotes:

“Coach’s duties, responsibilities and obligations shall be those normally associated with the position of head football coach at a Division I university such as the University of Kentucky.”

Because we wouldn’t want to require anything extraordinary out of Rich Brooks. Then again, competing in the SEC at Kentucky probably falls in the “extraordinary” bucket.

“The University agrees to undertake and provide additional improvements to the Football Program in an effort to increase the overall success of the Football Program.”

Yeah, it’s somewhat vague. Still, had Rich Rodriguez got this put in his contract, well, he’d actually have leg to stand on in his current dispute with WVU concerning unfulfilled promises regarding facilities upgrades.

“It is not the intention of the parties that this Agreement be terminable for minor, technical or otherwise insignificant University regulations or for NCAA or SEC violations which do not entail the risk of major institutional penalties.”

No coach ever gets fired for a technicality unless the school really, really wants him gone, but I have yet to see another coach have a protection against that written in his contract.

When Rich Brooks speaks, the media fires up the bleep machine.

Did the BCS Get it Right?

Now that LSU has defeated Ohio State for the BCS title, did the system set up the right championship game? I’ll do a quick rundown of the 1-loss and major conference 2-loss teams then make my case. After all, everything’s clearer with 20-20 hindsight. Teams are listed in alphabetical order, and the “Best Wins” category lists wins over .500 or better teams from major conferences (and Hawaii, if applicable, since the Warriors made a BCS game and had only one loss).

1 Loss Teams

Hawaii Warriors

Best Wins: Boise State, Fresno State

Loss: Georgia, 41-10

No wins over a major conference foe besides the Pac 10’s doormat, Washington. I feared for Colt Brennan’s life in the Sugar Bowl. No way, no how. I’m calling this one right now.

Kansas Jayhawks

Best Wins: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech

Loss: Missouri, 36-28

While losing only once (and only by 8 points) is impressive. However, beating a perpetually suspect Virginia Tech team and a 7-6 Oklahoma State team is not, so Kansas is not helping itself much with the schedule.

2 Loss Teams

Georgia Bulldogs

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma State

Losses: South Carolina, 16-12; Tennessee 35-14

The team was lost a listless until injuries forced Mark Richt to play Knowshown Moreno as a feature back. Uninspired play also forced Richt to pick a new motivational gimmick each week starting with the Florida game, all of which worked. This team was playing some of the best football in the country at the end of the year, but you must consider the season as a whole.

LSU Tigers

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Ohio State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

Losses: Kentucky, 43-37 (3OT); Arkansas, 50-48 (3OT)

It’s hard to accept a national champion who had two losses and gave up 50 points in a game during the season. Still, no one had a better array of wins, and as LSU fans will be quick to point out, the Tigers were undefeated in regulation and won the system everyone agreed upon.

Missouri Tigers

Best Wins: Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Losses: Oklahoma, 41-31; Oklahoma, 38-17

Missouri only lost to one team all year, except that it did so on two separate occasions. The Tigers did have wins over BCS participant Illinois and Arkansas, a team that beat LSU.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Best Wins: Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Losses: Illinois, 28-21; LSU, 38-24

Ohio State had the #1 rated defense in the regular season and was one of the most consistent teams all year. It did however play in the Big Ten, which dropped a stink bomb in bowl season and looks awful now. Plus, Illinois was thrashed by USC and the final score of the LSU game was closer than it should have been.

USC Trojans

Best Wins: Arizona State, Illinois, Oregon State

Losses: Stanford, 24-23; Oregon, 24-17

The Arizona State and Illinois wins were certainly impressive. However, it took until November 3 for the Trojans to beat a team that would finish above .500 for the year. The Stanford loss was unimaginably bad, and though USC had it’s backup QB playing the game, so did the Cardinal. Oregon with a healthy Dennis Dixon was probably the best team all year, and USC lost by just a touchdown.

West Virginia

Best Wins: Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, UConn

Losses: USF, 21-13; Pittsburgh, 13-9

The Fiesta Bowl win was a huge statement, the Miss State win was nearly as big as LSU’s, and the UConn win was overwhelming. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, the Pitt loss was nearly as bad as USC’s loss to Stanford, and the team couldn’t get anything going against USF. In its defense, WVU lost Pat White for large stretched during the two losses.

As a side note, Pitt’s 13-9 win over WVU that sent LSU to the championship game was the same score as the UCLA win over USC last year that sent Florida to the championship game.

Conclusion

Who are the top two teams?

Hawaii is eliminated, period.

Kansas had just two wins over teams that finished above .500 for the year. You’re a nice story, Jayhawks, but you’re also eliminated.

USC, you only had 3 wins over above-.500 teams, and you still lost to Stanford. Total body of work counts, so you’re eliminated.

Ohio State had only 5 wins over winning teams, but it also played a pillow-soft non conference schedule and the Big Ten was deplorable this year.

West Virginia had also 5 wins over winning teams, but it was the weakest set of wins out of the teams with 5. WVU, you’re eliminated.

We’re now down to Georgia, LSU, and Missouri. LSU does belong in the top two because it had seven wins over .500 or above opponents and wins over two other BCS conference champions (ACC, Big Ten). Between Missouri and Georgia, the Bulldogs had more wins over teams .500 or better and beat a team (UK) that beat LSU. But, Missouri’s losses were better and the Tigers played just as well as UGA did in each’s bowl game.

For the moment, I have to pick the team with more quality wins, so I go with Georgia. That leaves an LSU/Georgia game. It might make people from the Midwest or West unhappy, but honestly those two deserved it more.

So no, the BCS didn’t get it right.

Gators Pregame: LSU

Pregame Jaws
Florida is 22-5 since 1980 in the 7th game of the season. In 1988, Florida lost to Vanderbilt 24-9, the last time that’s happened. In 2002, Florida lost to LSU 36-7; in 2004 it lost to Mississippi State 38-31 in the game that cost Zook his job; in 2005 it lost to LSU 21-17; and in 2006 it lost for the only time to Auburn 27-17.

Urban Meyer Fanfare
Urban Meyer is 4-2 in the 7th game of the season as a head coach. At Bowling Green, he beat Akron 16-11 in 2001 and Ball State 38-20 in 2002. At Utah, he defeated UNLV 28-10 in 2003 and 63-28 in 2004. At Florida, he has yet to win the 7th game of the season, falling to LSU 21-17 in 2005 and to Auburn 27-17 in 2006. In both of those cases, it was the last game before a bye week; this year it’s the first game after the bye week. Urban Meyer is 22-2 as a head coach when he has more than one week to prepare for a game.

Orange and Blue
This game would be one of the few times where it is not just acceptable but recommended for Florida fans to wear orange to the game since they are in Big Blue country. I doubt it’d ever happen, but it would be pretty cool if a bunch of Gators invaded Lexington wearing orange to create a nice orange and blue effect in Commonwealth Stadium.

Men of Florida
We haven’t had to see the Men of Florida deal with back-to-back losses in a while, and the bulk of this team has not dealt with it yet in college. Urban Meyer promised the team would come out smokin’, but will that happen? The Wildcats’ 99th ranked pass defense should be accommodating, but the 27th ranked pass defense will have something to say about that.

Chimes/Alma Mater
Florida will be playing with a heavy hear following the deaths of Michael Guilford and Joe Haden’s girlfriend in the unfortunate motorcycle crash. I’m sure it will be good for the team to get out of Florida for a bit and get back to playing to help get their minds off of it. It will be an emotional game for the team, and it will be emotional for them the next time they play at the Swamp where there will undoubtedly be a tribute.

Boys March
For the first time in a while all of Florida’s receivers are healthy. That would generally indicate the chance to throw the ball down the field, but Kentucky will probably play zone to prevent those from working. That means a steady diet of Moore and Tebow rushing with Harvin and Ingram over the middle should work well. Then, if the Cats adjust to that, the longball should be wide open.

Gators Spell Out
G: GameDay
Today is the first time College GameDay has ever visited Lexington, and the fans are out in full force. Kentucky is not your standard nouveau riche football program like USF where the fans are just trying to imitate the big boys. Kentucky has the craziest basketball fans in the world, and they can just move over to the football stadium and be some of the craziest football fans in the world. Especially since UK could sell out the football stadium if they put some hardwood down and played the Wildcats’ SEC schedule there.

A: Andre Woodson
One of two Heisman trophy candidates in the game, Woodson must have a great game from the QB spot to win. He must be able to avoid pressure, should it get to him, and avoid costly interceptions and bad plays like what hurt his team in the last loss. If Woodson makes big plays and leads his team to victory, not only will his team move up in the polls, but he’ll become a permanent fixture in the Heisman race for the remainder of the season.

T: Tim Tebow
One of two Heisman trophy candidates in the game, Tebow must have a great game from the QB spot to win. He must be able to avoid pressure, should it get to him, and avoid costly interceptions and bad plays like what hurt his team in the last loss. If Tebow makes big plays and leads his team to victory, not only will his team move up in the polls, but he’ll become a permanent fixture in the Heisman race for the remainder of the season.

O: Offense
As in, you’ll see plenty of it. It’s the SEC’s best drop back passer against one of its most suspect defenses. It’s the SEC’s best running quarterback against a defense that has no idea how to stop a running quarterback. It should be a shootout for sure. First to 40 wins.

R: Rich Brooks
He looked like a dead coach walking to a lot of people just 14 games ago, but those people forgot about the sanctions Kentucky was dealing with at the time. After going 11-2 in the last 13 games, he looks like the new King of Lexington, at least until Billy Gillespie gets to playing games. Believe it or not, up at Autzen Stadium they call the playing surface Rich Brooks Field since he brought them from nothing to the Rose Bowl and built the foundation that Mike Bellotti has enjoyed during his tenure there.

S: Soreness
Kentucky has it, Florida doesn’t. While the Cats were getting beat up playing essentially 5 quarters against the brutal LSU Tigers, the Gators were chillin’ in Gainesville, sipping delicious cool drinks, and perhaps even cranking that soulja boy. LSU wore down at the end, probably as a result of getting beat up by LSU, just like Florida wore down at the end versus LSU after getting beat up by 7 consecutive quarters against Auburn and LSU. Now it’s Kentucky’s turn, and so hopefully Florida’s defensive line will be able to flush Woodson out of the pocket at least once today.

Suwannee
Derrick Locke can really run, being a track star and all, but he did everything you’d want a running back to do. He picked up tough yards, was a decent blocker, and overall didn’t look like a 4th string track guy trying to play running back. With Rafael Little still out, Kentucky will need Locke to flow through the UF defense like a river to free up Woodson and the passing game.

Tunnels
Kentucky had a great game last week, and is definitely tougher at home than on the road. However, the Wildcats are beat up, and they can’t stop a running quarterback like Tebow. Florida is hungry, looking to avoid a three game losing streak, and looking to stay alive in the SEC East race. Urban Meyer will have them ready, and Florida should win this game.

The Fall Guys

Some of the top teams in the country are showing the classic signs of being set up for a fall, and some don’t. I will now go over some of the teams and why they do or do not look ready to drop like rocks.

So far, Oregon has looked very good, and Dennis Dixon has been spectacular. The Ducks looked like they were just rolling along with a 53-7 win over Washington State, but if you didn’t see anything beyond the score, you’d never suspect anything was wrong.

However, WR Cameron Colvin (he of the fumble out the endzone in the Cal game) broke his ankle in the first half, and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. RB Jeremiah Johnson rushed for two TDs but then fell to a knee injury, and he is out for an uncertain amount of time. Neither is the top at his respective position for the Ducks; in fact, both are number two on the team behind Jonathan Stewart (leading rusher) and Jaison Williams (leading receiver). However, this situation will test Oregon’s depth and put a strain on Stewart especially, since Dixon is the Ducks’ third-leading rusher.

Losing two important skill players in a blowout isn’t just crushing from a personnel standpoint, it can be mentally challenging too. Oregon will probably be fine this week against Washington, but in two weeks they face a still-dangerous USC team, and if the Trojans can get their offensive issues worked out against Notre Dame this week, it could be serious bad news for Oregon. After that come Arizona State, Arizona (who is improving on offense every week), UCLA, and Oregon State. Going 4-2 the rest of the way is definitely possible and wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it probably would disappoint the Oregon fans who are expecting a lot at this point.

Arizona State has also been bit by the injury bug. Leading rusher Ryan Torain is gone for the season with a dislocated and/or broken big toe incurred in the game against Washington last Saturday. Torain had played in 6 of the Sun Devils’ 7 games and rushed for 553 yards on 110 carries. Keegan Herring takes over the starting role, but despite having played in all 7 games, he has just 480 yards on 73 carries. He’s not bad, but he’s clearly not as good as Torain.

While Arizona State has a bye this week to adjust, this injury still comes at a very bad time for the team. So far, ASU has played just two BCS schools with winning records - Colorado and Oregon State - and it took Oregon State a miracle win over Cal and its backup QB just to get back over .500 again. The schedule has been soft, but not anymore the rest of the season.

In two weeks, the Sun Devils get Cal and presumably a healthy Nate Longshore. After that is a trip to Oregon, a trip to UCLA (who is undefeated in Pac 10 play), and then USC and Arizona at home to end the year. It would not be out of the question to see Arizona State finish 3-2 or even 2-3 against that slate. Remember, this team only went 7-6 last year, and while Dennis Erickson is a step up from Dirk Koetter, it’s still roughly that same team.

It’s always bad karma to talk about your upcoming opponent as being ready for a fall since it tends to jinx your team, but whatever. Rich Brooks may have heaped an even bigger jinx on his team this week with his comments.

Specifically, it’s his comments about Andre Woodson deserving to be in the Heisman race. Usually once coaches and players start talking about individual awards, the player in question comes out and flops. Granted, Brooks was talking more in generalities about the award and whether mass mailings and other promotions (the “Joey Heisman” billboard comes to mind) are necessary, and he says no with as many people commenting on the Heisman every week out there and the ability of technology to let everyone see all the important highlights.

He still had these sound bites:

• “Andre Woodson is right at the first discussion in every Heisman ballot, and he should be. So we just have to keep going.”
• “Andre Woodson was not in the conversation when we started the year. He’s in every conversation now, as he deserves to be.”

That’s practically open campaigning for his guy, and that’s classic jinx territory. Hopefully I didn’t negate the jinx by pointing it out before the fact. You know, this is why I’m not superstitious; it’s too hard to keep everything straight. Still, don’t be surprised if Woodson lays an egg this weekend.

Ohio State has Michigan State, and it will be the first big test for the Buckeyes. Purdue is an impostor just like every year, so the Boilers don’t count. Michigan State has a much more impressive offense than you think - the Spartans have better offensive stats than Ohio State does across the board despite playing overall a tougher defensive schedule than OSU. Michigan State’s opponents collectively rank 68th and 75th in total and scoring defense; Ohio State’s opponents collectively rank 86th and 84th in total and scoring defense.

Still, Ohio State has nearly everyone back on defense from last year, and the offense hasn’t completely descended back into the cave where it resided for the first few years of Jim Tressel’s tenure there. It’s hard to say for sure how good OSU is since its schedule is so weak, but Ohio State has top-notch talent and a proven track record and coaching staff.

Out of the remaining games, who will beat Ohio State? Michigan State has a better offense, but a much weaker defense and is probably a couple years away from contending in the Big Ten. Do you think Anthony Morelli could beat the Buckeyes’ defense and hold onto the ball enough to win the game? Wisconsin is in a freefall, and won’t likely come within two touchdowns of Ohio State. Illinois won’t beat them since Ohio State can stop the run, and if you do that you stop Illinois. Finally, what has Michigan done this year that inspires any sort of confidence that it can pull off the game? Chad Henne is still the quarterback, and Lloyd Carr is still the coach. It wouldn’t be a shock, but I would be surprised if Ohio State lost a game the rest of the way.

Rutgers is a trendy pick this week to upset USF. I think part of that is that a lot of the media folks who didn’t pick the Bulls to do this well are looking for any opportunity to see them fall back down. The two most common reasons I’ve heard for USF losing is the weather in New Jersey and Ray Rice.

First, the weather. The game is at 7:30 pm, and the forecast is a high of 70 and a low of 49. The chance of rain is just 10% and the wind at night will be at 8 mph. In other words, it’s going to be classic football weather. It will start in the low to mid 60s and end in the low to mid 50s. That’s really not that cold, and I can tell you as a Florida native that we get that kind weather from November through March or April, so it’s not like all the Florida boys on USF will be freezing. As I said, it’ll be classic football weather, and it won’t play a factor in the game.

Second, Ray Rice isn’t going to be anything the Bulls haven’t already seen this year. They just played against Kevin Smith of UCF, formerly the leading rusher in Div. I-A, and held him to 56 yards. Mike Teel is a better quarterback than UCF’s Kyle Israel is, but Rutgers has yet to play a defense like what USF has, and the Scarlet Knights already have two losses. USF may have a loss or two coming, but I don’t think this week is the week.

Some Kentucky Talk

It’s been over a week since I did a post directed solely about the Gators, and that’s too long.

The opponent of this week is Kentucky, whose position in the polls has been more up and down than the Reitz Union elevator. The Cats started unranked, jumped into the polls at 21 after beating Louisville, jumped up to 14 after beating Arkansas, got as high as 8 before losing to South Carolina knocked them down to 17, but defeating LSU got them back up to 8.

By reasonable standards, Kentucky has played three games against decent or better opponents: Louisville, South Carolina, and LSU. You can argue Arkansas if you want, but the Pigs have no defense at all this year. Kentucky had the advantage of facing Louisville and LSU at home, and it won those games; Kentucky had to travel to South Carolina and lost. Clearly, Kentucky is a better team at home, as most teams are.

Well, if you look at it, Kentucky executed two exciting and memorable escapes to beat Louisville and LSU. If Louisville had any secondary at all, UK probably doesn’t win that game. If Matt Flynn played a decent game at all, LSU probably wins that game in regulation. Kentucky’s success is built on what ifs.

Now, some are saying that Kentucky has a physical defense this year. The Wildcats defense is certainly improved, clocking in at 60th and 64th in total and scoring defense. But is it a balanced defense? Stats say no - Kentucky is 27th in pass defense but 99th in run defense. That means the rushing attack that Florida abandoned in the second half against LSU is the very ticket to success on Saturday.

You can believe that Urban Meyer and his staff have figured this out. We should see a steady diet of Kestahn Moore, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Jarred Fayson carrying the ball with just enough passing to keep Kentucky honest and prevent it from just stacking the box. Rich Brooks has done a lot to improve that defense, but there’s only so much you can do in one year. For Florida to win, rushing is the way to go.

A Couple Things

First, FSU is still worthless. The Semis managed to lose at Wake Forest despite them wanting revenge for the 30-0 beat down they received from the Deacs at Doak last year. So much for Xavier Lee being the answer to all the problems. The classic Xavier Lee meltdown is half complete, with him going 24-44 and 2 interceptions last night. All that’s left is a 3 INT + a fumble or two and him getting yanked for Drew Weatherford in the 3rd quarter, who will promptly lead a drive that stalls out in the red zone for a field goal.

In other news, security is being stepped up in Lexington for this weekend’s LSU-Kentucky game after complaints of unruly fan behavior after UK beat Louisville earlier this season.

“We all want to celebrate the success of our winning football team, but we want to do it in a way that is safe for everyone and respects our neighborhoods,” said Lexington mayor Jim Newberry.

In other words, they can handle 24,000 crazy Wildcat fans leaving Rupp, but not 70,000 leaving Commonwealth Stadium after a big win. Speaking of Rupp, apparently the LSU team is staying in the hotel connected to Rupp Arena, and tonight will be the “Big Blue Madness” celebration there. That means the Tiger players could be (read: will be) disturbed all evening by rowdy basketball fans making noise in the area and the surrounding area all night. Luckily for them, it’s a 3:30 game.

See You Tomorrow

I have a test at 4:00 and a packed evening the rest of the way, so this will be the only update of the day. Kirk Herbstreit was on Heath Cline’s show, and he thinks Florida has a real good chance to win. Pat Dooley came on in the second half and was complete doom-and-gloom, figuring that Florida has no shot. Well, with Rice knocking off Southern Miss last night, we may be in for another crazy weekend.

South Carolina and Kentucky play for the lead in the SEC East (which is so weird so say) tonight, which should be a great game. UK is higher ranked, but I think South Carolina is favored, go figure. Will the Gamecocks’ defense be good enough to slow down Andre’ Woodson and the Wildcats enough for Chris Smelley to win the game? We’ll find out. South Carolina winning helps us out more, so I’ll be rooting for the old ball coach tonight.

As I said, I’ll be back tomorrow with my Gators pregame writeup, and possibly another coach show review. Go Gamecock, and Go Gators.

Schedule Analysis: Part 3

Don’t forget to read Part 1 and Part 2.

October 6: at LSU

This is the big one. If there’s one obvious game for a Gators loss, this is it. LSU is generally considered to be one of the top-three elite teams for 2007, along with Southern Cal and Michigan.

LSU’s main strength is the defense. It has to replace both safeties, but it returns both cornerbacks (both seniors), and has a deeper and better defensive line than what Florida had going into last year (and that’s before Marcus Thomas was thrown off the team). Did I mention that all three linebackers return too? LSU should be in the top-five in every defensive category this season.

The offense does have some issues, mostly in the passing game. Head coach Les Miles brought in Gary Crowton from Oregon to install the spread option after offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher left for FSU, and as we saw at Florida, that offense can take some time to get working correctly. QB Matt Flynn looked great in torching a mediocre Miami team in the 2005 Peach Bowl, but he’s played sparingly ever since. Early Doucet is the only reliable receiver. The Tigers have plenty of running backs though, led by 10th-year senior Jacob Hester. Losing Alley Broussard hurts some because of his experience, but they still have plenty back there without him. If no one emerges alongside Doucet, Flynn could be spending most of his autumn handing off.

There also is the Les Miles factor. He’s proven himself as a loudmouth, but still an excellent recruiter. Most of Nick Saban’s recruits are gone, so now the program is all on him and his ability to develop those players he’s signed the last three years. Some, many from Oklahoma State where he came from, scoffed at the idea of Miles becoming a true big-time coach in the SEC, since his most notable accomplishments at OSU consisted of never winning 10 games, pulling off two improbable upsets of Oklahoma, and lying about talking to LSU officials before taking the Tigers’ head coaching job. By all accounts, Urban Meyer is a better coach than Miles is.

Will this be 2005 again, where LSU squeaks out a victory? Or will it be 2003, when Florida played a perfect game and stole one from the favored and more-talented Tigers? I don’t know, but I do know that either team can win this game. It will be awfully tough, even with the surplus of playmakers, for the Gator offense to make up for the inexperience of the defense. I don’t think Florida is deep or experienced enough to go undefeated, so this looks like the most obvious game for a loss.

October 20: at Kentucky

The Gators get a week off before travelling to Lexington to face Kentucky. Normally Florida plays UK the fourth game of the year, and I don’t remember hearing why it was moved to the middle of the year.

This game is not a de facto second week off in a row like it has been in years past. Kentucky has the preseason first-team all-SEC quarterback in Andre Woodson, who led the league in passing by almost 400 yards over second place JaMarcus Russell. In addition, they have the SEC’s fifth-leading receiver of 2006 returning in Keenan Burton, and the 12th-leading receiver Dicky Lyons is also back. Last year, UK made it to its first bowl game since 1999 on the strength of its offense.

This game will be a big test for the Gators’ pass coverage, even perhaps moreso than the LSU game. Rich Brooks saved his job last year, much to many Wildcats fans’ chagrin, but he probably will need to go to another bowl game this year to really feel safe, especially considering what he has coming back on offense. Beating Florida for the first time since 1986 would be huge for Brooks, not only in ensuring his job security but also in winning some fan support.

The big problem for Kentucky is that its defense is abysmal. The Wildcats finished 118th in total defense and 99th in scoring defense last year. That just won’t get it done in a conference that prides itself on defense, and it really says a lot when the offenses in said conference often atrophy at the expense of head coaching focus on defense. In addition, Florida has enormous intangibles going in this game. As I said, UK hasn’t beaten UF since 1986. There always seems to be something, whether it was Florida’s improbable 4th-quarter comeback in 2003 to the Doering’s Got a Touchdown game in 1993 that keeps Florida winning. Of course, having vastly superior teams for much of the past two decades has kept the Gators winning too, sometimes with comical margins (73-7 in 1994, or 65-0 in 1996).

Florida will probably give up more points than Gator fans would like, but really there’s no reason for Florida not to win this game comfortably. Even though Florida didn’t play that well against Kentucky last year, Urban Meyer had no problems in winning at Kentucky 49-28 in 2005. Florida has more than enough offensive weapons to score plenty of points, and Kentucky just doesn’t have the personnel to cause enough problems for Florida’s defense to be in the game at the end.

Funny Story

I heard a funny story on the radio today. Chris Doering had Judd Davis on as a special guest, and while talking about the Auburn-South Carolina game, they got on the subject of the SC player who dropped the sure touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Doering mentioned it was one of his nightmares thinking what if he dropped his famous touchdown catch against Kentucky in 1993. Davis sarcastically said he’d have to try a 57-yard field goal, and that if he’d have made it people would just congratulate him for sending a Kentucky game to overtime rather than be immortalized like Doering was.

Davis also said on the plane home he was sitting with Wuerffel and Doering and that he was so happy that he didn’t have to try the field goal that he let the other two use his dad’s credit card to call their families using the plane phones. Funny stuff.