Capital One Bowl Wrapup

The Capital One Bowl - What’s left in your wallet?

After last year’s national title game, many people attributed Florida’s win to the Gators having “SEC speed.” While that was true to a degree, Florida was the more physical and aggressive team. I just watched most of the game DVD last week, and that fact was easy to see.

I bring this point up because Michigan dominated Florida on both sides of the ball today. Florida’s defensive line, which punished Ohio State last year, looked like a collection of linebackers going up against the Wolverine offensive line. Florida’s offense couldn’t figure out a way to pick up the blitz. The secondary played terribly as usual, but you knew that was coming. The physicality of Michigan won them this game. It’s rare to see a team completely push the other around and lose.

Urban Meyer gave some very accurate analysis in the postgame press conference. According to the AP, he covered the basics: “Florida didn’t give Tebow much time to throw, couldn’t get pressure on Henne and failed to cover Michigan’s receivers.” It’s just what I was mentioning - Florida couldn’t pick up blitzes all year, Florida never got any push up the middle all year on defense, and the defensive secodary was a sieve all year.

He was quoted as saying, “I don’t think we coached very well in certain areas,” and that’s for sure. The answer to the blitz on offense was to have usually Louis Murphy (who’s a twig compared to most linebackers) come back and block and still run slow-developing pass plays. Kestahn Moore is a much better blocker, but more often then not he was lined up way out by the sideline when he was in the game.

We also saw a return to the Tebow-Harvin tunnel vision offense. Only two rushes in the game were by someone other than those two guys (Moore, 2 rushes for 9 yards). Harvin also had as many receptions as the rest of the receiving corps combined, and more if you throw out Chas Henry’s completion to Aaron Hernandez. I realize that those guys are the two best players on the offense, but there’s more than enough talent on the offense for the ball to get spread around more than that. On defense, we constantly saw a linebacker on the slot receiver, which makes no sense in any situation.

Michigan for its part appeared to go with Auburn’s game plan. Florida’s defense this year was one of the worst open-field tackling squads in the country, so Chad Henne spent most of the game throwing slants and screens. When you know that the first guy is going to miss and the second guy might not arrive until 20 yards later, there’s no reason to try anything riskier. On defense, it was blitz on any 4 or 5 wide receiver set on second or third down. With the Gators never doing anything to make them pay for sending an extra guy or two, it made for a great strategy.

In some ways, Florida was fortunate that it was such a close game. After all, Mike Hart lost two fumbles just short of the goal line, and he had lost only one fumble in the rest of his four year career. Those would have been touchdowns in any other game. Now, some Florida fans might counter with complaints about questionable officiating, but that’s a red herring. The Gators had a four point lead with 5:36 to go. In those final five and a half minutes, Michigan outscored Florida 10-0, and the Gators could only muster 4 yards on 8 downs.

In the end a senior-laden, hugely physical team beat a very young, smaller team. Last season, Urban Meyer preached that he wanted to have the most physical team in college football, and he just may have had it based on the national title game. That toughness was missing this year for a lot of reasons. It’s now time for everyone to learn some lessons, have the young players to get some bulk and technique in the offseason, and get ready to come back ready to blow the doors off Hawaii on Labor Day weekend.

Gators Pregame: Georgia

Pregame Jaws

Florida is 18-9 in the eighth game of the season, though that is mostly because of the 1980s. From 1990 on, Florida played Georgia nearly every year in the eighth game, and being aware of the streak as we all are, that means the losses were 37-17 in 1997 and 31-24 in 2004 at the hands of Georgia.

In the ‘80s, though, UGA and Auburn took turns beating up on the good guys. In 1980 is was UGA 26-21; in 1981 it was Auburn 14-12; in 1982 it was UGA 44-0; in 1983 it was Auburn 28-21; in 1987-89 it was Auburn again 29-6, 16-0, and 10-7. Fortunately, we got our revenge in 1990 to the tune of 48-7.

Urban Meyer Fanfare

Urban Meyer is 4-2 in the eighth game of the year. At Bowling Green, he lost to Miami (Ohio) 24-21 in 2001 and beat Kent State 45-14 in 2002. At Utah, he lost to New Mexico 47-35 in 2003 and beat San Diego State 51-28 in 2004. At Florida, he’s defeated Georgia twice, 14-10 and 21-14.

Orange and Blue

Colors are very important in this game due to the split stands. It is always a cool atmosphere when half the stadium is orange and blue and the other half is red and teal. Teal? Yeah, you know, the color of the empty seats after Georgia fans have already started leaving early again.

Men of Florida

I’m going to say that the Men of Florida for this game need to be Kestahn Moore, Percy Harvin, Jarred Fayson, and Brandon James. Those four guys need to step up and give the Gators a running game other than Tim Tebow. Tebow will still get his carries, but they need to be effective when called upon to lighten his load and get positive yardage. Georgia’s defense can be somewhat suspect at times, so a balanced and unpredictable attack will help Florida out tremendously.

Chimes/Alma Mater

The tradition of having this game in Jacksonville goes back many, many years. Long before I or my parents were even around. It is a unique atmosphere to have a regular season rivalry game at a neutral site, and only three such games exist – Florida/Georgia, Oklahoma/Texas in Dallas, and Army/Navy in Baltimore. If you have never been, it’s something you need to see at some point.

It’s a shame more schools don’t do it, because of what a tremendous weekend it is. FSU and Miami fans show up every year because of how great the experience is. It’s something every school should do, even if temporary, because it makes the game a lot more fun. I wouldn’t want to do a neutral site for every game, of course, but once a year it makes for an incredible weekend.

Boys March

The Gators had better be marching up and down the field on offense tomorrow. Georgia has almost nothing left at tailback besides Knowshown Moreno thanks to injuries, so that means the passing game will be important. As in consistent as Matt Stafford has been in the deep passing game, he is very good at the intermediate passing game and that’s precisely what the Florida secondary gives up willingly in its frustrating soft zone scheme. I expect to see a lot of blitzing from Florida to try to make Stafford throw it before he has a chance to get comfortable and find his intermediate routes.

Gators Spell Out

G: Georgia Fans

There are precious few things funnier in this life than Georgia fans on Florida-Georgia weekend. Before the game, you can see the young men in their atrocious red polyester pants and dated moptop haircuts and the older fans barking at anything orange and/or blue and saying things like “Hunker down Daaaaawgs!!” which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense as a cheer. After the game – after yet another loss – they can’t make eye contact with anything orange and/or blue and have even been known to ask in a taunting voice “Why didn’t you beat us by more?” Priceless, I tell you.

A: Andre Caldwell

I know I’ve used him before in this spot, but his reemergence last week was a huge even for the offense. When he’s fully healthy, it’s like having another Percy Harvin on the field. He was a revelation in Lexington. It’s hard to stop either Andre or Percy, but having them both borders on unfair. If he can stay healthy the rest of the year, Florida will be in excellent shape on offense.

T: Tim Tebow

This is his chance to shine. After Matt Ryan lucked out last night by getting to play against the worst prevent defense ever seen, Tebow needs to answer in a big way to preserve his lead in the Heisman race. Florida is the featured 3:30 CBS game, and people naturally watch this game because it’s Florida-Georgia and everyone likes the wide shots of the split stands and all that stuff. It’s time to lay a historic smackdown to put Ryan in his place, and also because it’s Georgia, and they deserve it for being Georgia and having 50+ year old people barking at children in the parking lot.

O: Offensive Coordinators

Florida fans have been up and down on Dan Mullen throughout this season, and Mike Bobo has been very hit or miss with his play calling in this his first full season of calling plays. Bobo is one of the few Bulldog quarterbacks not yet over the hill who has known what it’s like to beat Florida as he did the trick in his senior season in 1997. Mullen has yet to lose to UGA in two tries, and his game against Kentucky showed a lot more diversity in play calling; he’s definitely more comfortable with Caldwell out there. No doubt that whichever team loses, its offensive coordinator will be second-guessed for weeks.

R: Running Backs

Georgia has one good one left (Moreno), and there’s talk that Mark Richt might burn the redshirt off the back of prized freshman Caleb King since he’ll be dressing out for the first time this season. Florida has only one medium-sized or larger back (Moore) and behind him are three small speed backs (James, Chevon Walker, Chris Rainey). If any of these guys can get something going it will be a big coup for his team so it won’t have to rely on only passing/QB rushes the whole game.

S: Stafford, Matt

Which Matt Stafford will show up? The one who lit up Oklahoma State, or the one who couldn’t move the ball on Tennessee’s awful defense? Florida has been reasonably good at stopping the run this year, so Georgia’s big chance to move the ball is housed in Stafford’s unusually large right arm.

Suwannee

It is actually the St. Mary’s River that separates the two states participating in the contest tomorrow. It’s brackish, tea-colored water is something I know well since I have an aunt and uncle who have a house close to it. That house is where I will be staying this weekend, as with most Florida-Georgia weekends. So, after around noon today when I leave to head up there with my family I will be without Internet and even cell phone signal for much of the weekend. Nothing further will be posted until Sunday afternoon at the earliest.

Tunnels

Florida has the obvious advantage among the offenses, but Georgia’s defense is much better statistically. Statistically good defenses haven’t prevented Florida from being in every game this year, and Georgia has yet to face an offense quite like Florida’s. Florida’s defense has been suspect at best for most of the year, but as long as Georgia doesn’t run quick slants all game then the D should be fine. It will probably end up close, as Meyer’s first two UGA games have been, but I will be surprised if Florida loses. Georgia just doesn’t have the talent that Florida does.

Yes, I really will be without Internet all weekend. If you leave  a comment, it won’t show up until Sunday because I manually approve all comments since too much spam makes it past the filter. Don’t let that stop you from leaving a comment though. Stay safe, and Go Gators!

Gators Pregame: LSU

Pregame Jaws
Florida is 22-5 since 1980 in the 7th game of the season. In 1988, Florida lost to Vanderbilt 24-9, the last time that’s happened. In 2002, Florida lost to LSU 36-7; in 2004 it lost to Mississippi State 38-31 in the game that cost Zook his job; in 2005 it lost to LSU 21-17; and in 2006 it lost for the only time to Auburn 27-17.

Urban Meyer Fanfare
Urban Meyer is 4-2 in the 7th game of the season as a head coach. At Bowling Green, he beat Akron 16-11 in 2001 and Ball State 38-20 in 2002. At Utah, he defeated UNLV 28-10 in 2003 and 63-28 in 2004. At Florida, he has yet to win the 7th game of the season, falling to LSU 21-17 in 2005 and to Auburn 27-17 in 2006. In both of those cases, it was the last game before a bye week; this year it’s the first game after the bye week. Urban Meyer is 22-2 as a head coach when he has more than one week to prepare for a game.

Orange and Blue
This game would be one of the few times where it is not just acceptable but recommended for Florida fans to wear orange to the game since they are in Big Blue country. I doubt it’d ever happen, but it would be pretty cool if a bunch of Gators invaded Lexington wearing orange to create a nice orange and blue effect in Commonwealth Stadium.

Men of Florida
We haven’t had to see the Men of Florida deal with back-to-back losses in a while, and the bulk of this team has not dealt with it yet in college. Urban Meyer promised the team would come out smokin’, but will that happen? The Wildcats’ 99th ranked pass defense should be accommodating, but the 27th ranked pass defense will have something to say about that.

Chimes/Alma Mater
Florida will be playing with a heavy hear following the deaths of Michael Guilford and Joe Haden’s girlfriend in the unfortunate motorcycle crash. I’m sure it will be good for the team to get out of Florida for a bit and get back to playing to help get their minds off of it. It will be an emotional game for the team, and it will be emotional for them the next time they play at the Swamp where there will undoubtedly be a tribute.

Boys March
For the first time in a while all of Florida’s receivers are healthy. That would generally indicate the chance to throw the ball down the field, but Kentucky will probably play zone to prevent those from working. That means a steady diet of Moore and Tebow rushing with Harvin and Ingram over the middle should work well. Then, if the Cats adjust to that, the longball should be wide open.

Gators Spell Out
G: GameDay
Today is the first time College GameDay has ever visited Lexington, and the fans are out in full force. Kentucky is not your standard nouveau riche football program like USF where the fans are just trying to imitate the big boys. Kentucky has the craziest basketball fans in the world, and they can just move over to the football stadium and be some of the craziest football fans in the world. Especially since UK could sell out the football stadium if they put some hardwood down and played the Wildcats’ SEC schedule there.

A: Andre Woodson
One of two Heisman trophy candidates in the game, Woodson must have a great game from the QB spot to win. He must be able to avoid pressure, should it get to him, and avoid costly interceptions and bad plays like what hurt his team in the last loss. If Woodson makes big plays and leads his team to victory, not only will his team move up in the polls, but he’ll become a permanent fixture in the Heisman race for the remainder of the season.

T: Tim Tebow
One of two Heisman trophy candidates in the game, Tebow must have a great game from the QB spot to win. He must be able to avoid pressure, should it get to him, and avoid costly interceptions and bad plays like what hurt his team in the last loss. If Tebow makes big plays and leads his team to victory, not only will his team move up in the polls, but he’ll become a permanent fixture in the Heisman race for the remainder of the season.

O: Offense
As in, you’ll see plenty of it. It’s the SEC’s best drop back passer against one of its most suspect defenses. It’s the SEC’s best running quarterback against a defense that has no idea how to stop a running quarterback. It should be a shootout for sure. First to 40 wins.

R: Rich Brooks
He looked like a dead coach walking to a lot of people just 14 games ago, but those people forgot about the sanctions Kentucky was dealing with at the time. After going 11-2 in the last 13 games, he looks like the new King of Lexington, at least until Billy Gillespie gets to playing games. Believe it or not, up at Autzen Stadium they call the playing surface Rich Brooks Field since he brought them from nothing to the Rose Bowl and built the foundation that Mike Bellotti has enjoyed during his tenure there.

S: Soreness
Kentucky has it, Florida doesn’t. While the Cats were getting beat up playing essentially 5 quarters against the brutal LSU Tigers, the Gators were chillin’ in Gainesville, sipping delicious cool drinks, and perhaps even cranking that soulja boy. LSU wore down at the end, probably as a result of getting beat up by LSU, just like Florida wore down at the end versus LSU after getting beat up by 7 consecutive quarters against Auburn and LSU. Now it’s Kentucky’s turn, and so hopefully Florida’s defensive line will be able to flush Woodson out of the pocket at least once today.

Suwannee
Derrick Locke can really run, being a track star and all, but he did everything you’d want a running back to do. He picked up tough yards, was a decent blocker, and overall didn’t look like a 4th string track guy trying to play running back. With Rafael Little still out, Kentucky will need Locke to flow through the UF defense like a river to free up Woodson and the passing game.

Tunnels
Kentucky had a great game last week, and is definitely tougher at home than on the road. However, the Wildcats are beat up, and they can’t stop a running quarterback like Tebow. Florida is hungry, looking to avoid a three game losing streak, and looking to stay alive in the SEC East race. Urban Meyer will have them ready, and Florida should win this game.

Some Kentucky Talk

It’s been over a week since I did a post directed solely about the Gators, and that’s too long.

The opponent of this week is Kentucky, whose position in the polls has been more up and down than the Reitz Union elevator. The Cats started unranked, jumped into the polls at 21 after beating Louisville, jumped up to 14 after beating Arkansas, got as high as 8 before losing to South Carolina knocked them down to 17, but defeating LSU got them back up to 8.

By reasonable standards, Kentucky has played three games against decent or better opponents: Louisville, South Carolina, and LSU. You can argue Arkansas if you want, but the Pigs have no defense at all this year. Kentucky had the advantage of facing Louisville and LSU at home, and it won those games; Kentucky had to travel to South Carolina and lost. Clearly, Kentucky is a better team at home, as most teams are.

Well, if you look at it, Kentucky executed two exciting and memorable escapes to beat Louisville and LSU. If Louisville had any secondary at all, UK probably doesn’t win that game. If Matt Flynn played a decent game at all, LSU probably wins that game in regulation. Kentucky’s success is built on what ifs.

Now, some are saying that Kentucky has a physical defense this year. The Wildcats defense is certainly improved, clocking in at 60th and 64th in total and scoring defense. But is it a balanced defense? Stats say no - Kentucky is 27th in pass defense but 99th in run defense. That means the rushing attack that Florida abandoned in the second half against LSU is the very ticket to success on Saturday.

You can believe that Urban Meyer and his staff have figured this out. We should see a steady diet of Kestahn Moore, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Jarred Fayson carrying the ball with just enough passing to keep Kentucky honest and prevent it from just stacking the box. Rich Brooks has done a lot to improve that defense, but there’s only so much you can do in one year. For Florida to win, rushing is the way to go.

LSU Thoughts

A lot of people have said a lot of things about the LSU game so far, so I am not going to try to do a comprehensive game review. You’ve already read plenty, most likely, so there are the things that stuck out to me.

Physicality

This was a heavyweight bout, and not just because or the teams’ rankings. This was one of the fiercest, most physical games I’ve seen in a while. LSU’s defense was intent on delivering punishment, and Florida was set on giving right back. LSU safety Craig Steltz, who participated in 16 tackles for the game, said that his equipment was damaged after the game. That’s impressive.

Urban Meyer said when he got here that he wanted to create a tough, physical team, and he has accomplished that goal.

Captain Hook

After Kestahn Moore fumbled, he never got another carry. In fact, Florida abandoned the run completely after that. I understand pulling someone who fumbles when it’s Chris Rainey, an unproven true freshman. I don’t understand pulling a guy who fumbles when it’s your junior starter who has been gashing the other team up the middle all game long.

This is not the first time that’s happened either. Urban Meyer and his coaches have been doing this ever since they arrived in Gainesville – if you fumble, you get pulled. I can understand the philosophy behind it, but it’s impractical in practice. You tell your guy to put two hands on the ball in traffic, then send him out there again to keep getting 4 to 8 yards a carry up the middle.

Regression to the Mean

I called last Saturday “Regression to the Mean Saturday” partly to make fun of ESPN for trying to give days ridiculous names like “Gut Check Saturday” and partly because I thought it’d be a day where a lot of corrections in the standings would occur. It ended up being a bad way of making picks, but it did hold true for a few teams. Wisconsin and USC have looked shaky, and they finally fell.

It also held true for Florida in this way: Florida got nearly every break last year. In every game but the Auburn game, if something could go right for the Gators, it did. This year, things have been going against UF with its back-to-back last-minute losses. Wes Byrum made his game-winning kick by about 2 feet. Joey Ijjas’ field goal attempt was blocked, and the margin of victory for Auburn was 3 points. Charlie Strong knew LSU’s fake punt was coming, but no one on the field could hear him hollering at them to shift over to cover it. Jacob Hester was awarded a highly favorable spot on the final 4^th down conversion for LSU. Tim Tebow’s first interception that was not because of Riley Cooper running the wrong route came on a deflection off of Cornelius Ingram’s helmet.

Some would say that you have to make your own luck, and that’s true to a great extent. Florida had a lot of depth and experience last year, and it has almost none this year. Some of these things are just a side effect of having a young team. If a team gets all the breaks one year, they usually don’t the next. Look at Wake Forest – everything went right for the Deacs last year, but this year they already have two losses.

We all knew this year would have some growing pains. We knew there’d be a lot of growing up to do. There could be another game or two like the last two where everything goes against Florida in the end. It could cost Florida a shot at the SEC East title, which I know would be a huge disappointment for Gator fans. We just have to remember that when all the breaks go against a team, they always get a few the next year.

Mythbusters!

———————–

Myth: Pollsters can be counted on to produce an accurate ranking of college football teams.

Evidence:

• Colorado 27 - #3 Oklahoma 24
• Auburn 20 - #4 Florida 17
• #18 USF 21 - #5 West Virginia
• Kansas State 41 - #7 Texas 21
• Maryland 34 - #10 Rutgers 24
• Georgia Tech 13 - #13 Clemson 3
• Illinois 27 - #21 Penn State 20
• FSU 21 - #22 Alabama

Status:

———————–

Myth: Tim Tebow can win games by sheer force of will.

Evidence:

Florida at 4:33 4th Quarter

1st and 10 at FLA 42: Tebow pass complete to Harvin, loss of 6 yards

2nd and 16 at FLA 36: Tebow option pitch to Moore, no gain

3rd and 15 FLA: Tebow pass incomplete, broken up by Jerraud Powers

Status:

———————–

Myth: Urban Meyer is truly concerned about the number of carries Tim Tebow gets and will rely on running backs to spread the load around.

Evidence:

Florida Rushing

Tebow: 19 carries

Harvin: 4 carries

Moore: 3 carries

Fayson: 2 carries

Status:

———————–

Myth: USC is the best team in the country.

Evidence: USC 27 - Washington 24

Status:

———————–

Myth: LSU is the best team in the country.

Evidence:

• LSU 45 - Mississippi State 0
• LSU 48 - Virginia Tech 7
• LSU 44 - MTSU 0
• LSU 28 - South Carolina 16
• LSU 38 - Tulane 9

Status:

———————–

Myth: The Gators’ season is over, woe is us, we have nothing left to play for since our hero didn’t deliver and we are no longer undefeated.

Evidence:

• October 6: Florida @ LSU
• October 20: Florida @ Kentucky
• October 27: Florida vs Georgia (Jacksonville)
• November 3: Vanderbilt @ Florida (Homecoming)
• November 10: Florida @ South Carolina
• November 17: FAU @ Florida
• November 24: FSU @ Florida

Status:

Gator Pregame: Auburn

Pregame Jaws

Florida is 19-8 since 1980 in the fifth game of the season. In 1982, Florida lost 31-28 at Vanderbilt, the last time the Commodores have beaten the Gators. 1986 and 1987 brought back-to-back losses to LSU. In 1993 Terry Bowden picked up an unexpected win for Auburn. In 1999, we lost by a point at home to Alabama, and 2000 had a loss at Mississippi State. In 2004, we had a heartbreaking loss to LSU, and 2005 had that horrible, horrible loss at Alabama. For what it’s worth, Florida has won 7 of the last 10 against Auburn, going back to 1994.

Urban Meyer Fanfare

Urban Meyer is 5-1 in the fifth game of the year. At Bowling Green, he beat Kent State 24 – 7 in 2001 and Central Michigan 45 – 35 in 2002. At Utah, he beat Oregon 17 – 13 in 2003 and New Mexico 28 – 7 in 2004. At Florida, he lost to Alabama 31 – 3 in 2005 and beat LSU 23 – 10 in 2006. Urban Meyer has also never lost to the same team two years in a row.

Orange and Blue

Florida fans should all be wearing orange and blue to the game tomorrow. There was a movement among some students of doing a white out for the game, which is stupid because white is not one of our colors. Yes, Auburn wears orange and blue too, but they wear darker shades of each. No one should be wearing white since it’s a night game so there’s no heat issues, but look for a lot of white in the student section among those dumb enough to think it’s a good idea.

Men of Florida

I am looking for the linebackers to bounce back this game after an uneven game in Mississippi. Brandon Spikes had a lot of tackles, but he also had a bad personal foul penalty. I hardly noticed that Dustin Doe was even there. Spikes and Doe will need to step up and be noticed in this game to ensure that Florida gets the revenge it desires.

Chimes/Alma Mater

Wilber Marshall becomes the fifth member of the Florida Ring of Honor, a very exclusive club that is unlikely to be added to again for a while. He graduated before I entered the world, so I never got to see him play, but everyone who has seen him play calls him the best linebacker ever to play at UF. His game against Sean Salisbury’s USC Trojans is the stuff of legends. Pat Dooley argued that Marshall should have been in last year, and Marshall was upset about it at the time, but presumably all’s forgiven now.

Boys March

Tim Tebow did his fair share of marching down the field last week, racking up a McFadden-like 166 yards on the ground. Everyone on earth has said at some point this week that 28 carries is probably too many for a quarterback. Urban said it concerned him too, so I would look to see Kestahn Moore and Jarred Fayson get a lot more carries out of the backfield this week. I doubt we’ll see too many designed QB runs. If Florida was to lose Tebow to injury the week before the LSU game, it’d be devastating.

Gators Spell Out

G: Gambler

Tommy Tuberville likes to cultivate an image of himself as a “riverboat gambler,” even though he’s one of the most conservative coaches out there. Still, he sometimes does really risky plays at times if he thinks he can steal momentum away from Florida and silence the crowd.

A: Apathy

There has been a real feeling of ambivalence towards this game among the fan base for most of the week. Everyone seems ready to head out to Baton Rouge and play LSU, and few of those who have noticed that we play the Auburn Tigers this week seem to be sure we’re going to beat them like we beat Tennessee. If Florida struggles in this game, there will be plenty of fans reaching for the panic button.

T: Torched

The Gator secondary has looked very shaky, and it let the weak Ole Miss passing game put up some big numbers. Auburn will look to exploit a lot of the same weaknesses we saw last week, so hopefully the pass rush will step up and help the defensive backfield out some. There’s no reason why Auburn should throw for 300+ yards like Ole Miss did last week.

O: Offense

Florida has a great offense. It’s been said that Auburn’s offense is worse than vanilla, it’s flavorless yogurt. While Florida will try to air it out and gain yards in bunches, Auburn will be trying to control the ball by running because Brandon Cox can no longer be trusted, and Auburn hasn’t had top-shelf offensive talent since Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Jason Campbell left.

R: Running Game

Auburn’s passing attack has been anemic for most of the year, and they’ve had a QB controversy despite having a 5^th-year senior as a starter. That’s pretty remarkable. Brad Lester, who torched Florida last year on the ground, is out with academic issues, so that bodes well for Florida’s surprisingly stout running defense. Kestahn Moore is playing better and better as the year goes on. I think Florida has a distinct advantage on the ground, and since Auburn has no passing game, Florida should be able to win this one.

S: Special Teams

Special teams can be one of Florida’s biggest advantages. The kick coverage has been spotty at times, but Brandon James is a certified playmaker and Joey Ijjas has been perfect so far. Ijjas has been nursing a quad injury this week, but he should be ready to go. If Florida can shore up the kick coverage, this will be a solid advantage for Florida in nearly every game.

Suwannee

Florida is hoping to build momentum with the game that will help it sweep into Louisiana and come out with a win. No doubt, beating Auburn is the focus of the players and coaches since they feel like they have a score to settle from last year. Still, you have to know that LSU will be in the backs of everyone’s minds this weekend.

Tunnels

By all accounts, Florida has the better team. Florida has the revenge factor. Auburn is playing for its season in a sense because they need to regain some momentum and avoid starting SEC play 0-2. Plus, some think ol’ Tommy Tuberville is coaching for his job after losing two home games in a row. Even still, Florida should win this one. It’s never comfortable with Auburn, but the Gators should still come out on top.

Ole Miss Wrapup

This was a classic trap game. Sandwiched between the big rival of Tennessee and the revenge game of Auburn was the worst road game of the year and it looked it. By worst, I don’t mean in terms of competition but in terms of quality. It’s a horrible trip because it’s a long bus ride from Tupelo to Oxford from the game, the stadium is small so that won’t get you amped up, and it’s hard to get excited when playing a bad team like Ole Miss. Urban Meyer was concerned about players not being ready to play, and he was justified.

Rece Davis of ESPN called it “Hangover Saturday,” and that’s what we saw. There were 14 penalties, some defensive lapses, and overall uneven play. We had receivers dropping balls and running wrong routes. The play calling was conservative, perhaps not to give much away for later, and so screens and runs up the middle ruled the day.

Now, it’s hard to find fault with Tim Tebow’s performance from a statistical standpoint, especially since he, Percy Harvin, and Kestahn Moore were the only offensive players who showed up fully ready to play (Derrick Harvey was the only one on defense, by the way). However, Ole Miss dropped 8 in coverage and Tebow took off running a lot of times when his first or second option wasn’t open. For a young player in his first year starting, that’s perfectly normal. However, it could be a concern against future secondaries, especially LSU’s.

In the end, I think everyone is just happy to get out with a win. We’ve got one more home game before the big test in Louisiana to get some things straightened out. I’m not dismissing Auburn, but those Tigers are looking a lot more tame after losing at home to USF and Mississippi State. Hopefully, with future road contests being later in the day we won’t be showing up sluggish. It’s best to put this one behind us.

Tennessee Wrapup

If there’s one thing that’s clear from this weekend, it’s that Urban Meyer is not planning on doing any more campaigning for BCS prizes. He’s going for style points with abandon, and is not having any more NFL-type victories where just winning is the only concern. When it comes down to it, the years have conditioned people who evaluate college football to look at margin of victory whether they like to admit it or not, and a 59-20 victory will carry more weight with pollsters than a 35-20 win will, and therein lies the problem - it’s all about impressing pollsters. But that’s another issue entirely.

That was probably the second-most complete performance by a Florida team since Urban got here, next to the BCS Championship Game against Ohio State. The defense played surprisingly well, so much so that it surprised Urban himself. To hold Tennessee to just 37 yards was incredible, and something I would not have believed if you tried to tell me that before the game. Clint McMillan and Javier Estopinan finally got some push up the middle, which definitely helped. The Gators also got some timely turnovers, something that was a hallmark of last year’s team. You really have to hand it to the Gators’ defensive coaching staff for getting the guys ready and keeping them focused throughout the game. These guys will be scary good next year.

The offense that we saw is what everyone has been waiting for ever since Florida fans started watching 2004 Utah highlights wanting to see what their new coach was going to do on offense. Tim Tebow played beyond his years, with his only big mistake (the interception) apparently being because Riley Cooper didn’t run the proper route. It was nice to see that the Meyer spread option can work against n SEC defense.

Then again, some might argue that Tennessee doesn’t have a real SEC offense this year, and for the most part those people would be right. The Vols’ defense just isn’t where it has been in years past. Some of Tebow’s throws would have been intercepted or at least knocked down against a top-flight defense. The first down pass to Kestahn Moore when Moore was coming back and made a diving catch comes to mind. After a fourth of the season, Tennessee is 90th in rushing defense, 95th in passing defense, and 102nd in total defense. Part of that is from playing Cal and Florida, the owners of two of the best offenses in the country, and UT will climb in the rankings after playing Arkansas State, Georgia, and Mississippi State in the next three games. Still, Tennessee’s defense is startlingly vulnerable.

The receivers definitely stepped up in the absence of Andre Caldwell, with Percy Harvin having probably his best game as a Gator and Cornelius Ingram coming up huge as well. It was nice to see Tebow throwing in Riley Cooper’s direction again, after Cooper had only one ball thrown his way against Troy. I guess the idea was that they wanted to make Tennessee think that the deep balls against WKU were only thrown because it was WKU and that against better competition the Gators wouldn’t loft it deep. Eschewing the long ball for short slants and bubble screens was one of the (many) things that turned a lot of Gator fans against the Zook regime, and it was a bone of contention last year up until the team won the SEC title. Even though Tebow threw the ball just 19 times, Florida fans left the game buzzing more about the passing game than the rushing game that had 46 carries.

Mark Schlabach has already proclaimed 2007 Florida as better than the title team from last year. I wouldn’t go that far quite yet, based on how dominant the defense was last year. Certainly the offense is worlds more efficient, the defense still could use some work. Plus, we haven’t even seen them on the road yet. This weekend at Ole Miss won’t provide much of a test, but at least it’s outside the state. The games at Kentucky and at LSU will provide much better tests.

No matter, Florida passed its first test in a big way, and anytime you beat Tennessee by margins not see since Herschel Walker was patrolling the SEC, it’s a good weekend. Go Gators!

Gators Pregame: Tennessee

Pregame Jaws

Florida is 23-4 in the third game of the season since 1980. The losses were at Tennessee in 1998, at Mississippi State in 1992, at Syracuse in 1991, and to Alabama in 1986. So, in general Florida does not lose the third game of the year if it’s at home.

Florida and Tennessee began playing each other the third game of the season in 1993, at which point UF went on a 5 game winning streak. Florida again won in 1999 and 2000. In 2001, the Tennessee had been scheduled for the third game, but was postponed to the end of the season due to 9/11. In 2002 and 2003, Florida did not play Tennessee until the fourth game because those were the trial years of the 12-game schedule, and Florida added Miami to the usual two “exhibition” games at the beginning before conference play. In 2004, Tennessee was again scheduled to be third but it was actually played as the second game due to a Hurricane Francis postponing the Middle Tennessee State game. Tennessee returned to the third spot on the schedule in 2005.

Urban Meyer Fanfare

Urban Meyer has never lost the third game of a season, going a perfect 6-0. At Bowling Green, he defeated Temple 42-23 and Kansas 39-16 in 2001 and 2002. At Utah, he defeated California 31-24 and Utah State 48-6 in 2003 and 2004. At Florida, he has defeated Tennessee twice, by scores of 16-7 in 2005 and 21-20 in 2006.

Orange and Blue

Or in the case of this weekend, just blue. Urban Meyer has requested all Florida fans wear blue to drown out the Tennessee orange. It should create a cool orange and blue effect in the stands, and it will only add to the atmosphere of the Swamp. Urban said it will be for recruiting purposes, and I think he’ll get the impressive atmosphere he wants.

Men of Florida

Tim Tebow and again Brandon Spikes and Dustin Doe were the real Men of Florida last week. Tebow put up over 300 yards of total offense himself, and is running the offense at very high efficiency. Spikes lead the defense with 9 tackles and a sack if memory serves me correctly, and Doe had 9 tackles, one for a loss, and a fumble recovery. Those three men will be the most important players on the field for Florida because the offense must score a lot since Tennessee will, and the linebackers will need to step up in run coverage because the defensive line is getting no push this year.

Chimes/Alma Mater

For details in this category, see the prior post called The Florida-Tennessee Relationship.

Boys March

The boys of old Florida should be doing a lot of marching up and down the field. Percy Harvin is the healthiest he’s been this year, Cornelius Ingram is catching everything thrown at him and always getting yards after contact, Kestahn Moore has shown some flashes of being a feature back, Riley Cooper will be going deep, and Tim Tebow is the straw that stirs the drink. Fans of Neanderthal offense or Big Ten offense (is there a difference?) should avert their eyes and watch Notre Dame – Michigan on ABC instead.

Gators Spell Out

G: Gaines, Antonio

Antonio Gaines, one of Tennessee’s starting cornerbacks, is out for the season now with a torn ACL. That’s a blow to the already shaky Volunteers’ pass defense.

A: Andre Caldwell

Yes, Florida lost Andre Caldwell for the game, but Florida has more offensive weapons than Tennessee has pass defenders, and the Vols are already 86^th against the pass this year. Still, the loss of his senior leadership on the field could hurt. Don’t worry, though, he’ll be very involved on the sideline.

T: Tennessee Fans

Tennessee fans are coming to town this weekend, and it’s not going to be pleasant. While there are some perfectly reasonable Vols out there, they are not the ones that you notice. You notice more the jerks that drive laps through campus blaring “Rocky Top” out their windows shouting “Go Vols!” at 8:15 in the morning (which I personally witnessed in 2003). Wear sunglasses at all times to avoid scarring from Tennessee orange.

O: Offense

The Florida offense has a chance to put up a lot of numbers in a legendary performance this Saturday. Or, it can sputter like it did in the third quarter against Troy as a young unit seizes up in its first true test against a conference rival. Which will happen? I am leaning towards the former, but the latter is definitely not out of the question.

R: Rush Defense

Florida’s rushing defense will have a severe test this week, facing Arian Foster, Montario Hardesty, and the now-healthy LaMarcus Coker. Phil Fulmer said that he is going to try to run the ball, as he always does, and if the Gator defensive line can’t get any more push up the middle than it has gotten in the last two games, Tennessee could control the game if it can get its running game working well.

S: Shootout

Everyone is saying it, and it will probably be true: this game will be a shootout. It definitely is a shootout on paper, but I have a feeling that this is a case when the conventional wisdom is so overwhelming that it can’t possibly come true. Then again, there’s not much either defense has done that inspires confidence.

Suwannee

Brandon James flowed right through the Troy special teams coverage live a river last week, but he tweaked his ankle in the process. Florida really need him to be healthy to help in the field position battle because Jarred Fayson has been awful as a return man and Chris Rainey won’t see the field as long as he keeps fumbling.

Tunnels

Tennessee is coming in confident in the way its offense matches up against Florida’s defense, and Phil Fulmer needs to make a statement that he can beat Urban Meyer. Florida is coming in looking to prove itself against real top competition and show that it deserves its top ten ranking. Also, there is still an element out there looking to see if Urban Meyer’s “real” spread option offense can work in the SEC since we still haven’t seen it against SEC competition yet. All in all, it should be one of the best games in the series we’ve seen yet.