The Guys Who Follow College Football’s Coaching Legends

We’ve all heard it a million times: “You don’t want to be the guy who follows a legend; you want to be the guy who follows the guy who follows the legend.”

It makes intuitive sense, and it certainly would seem true. Urban Meyer is the guy who followed the guy who followed the legend at Florida, and things have worked out quite well for him so far. Then again, Bill Callahan was the same at Nebraska, and the fans were ready to run him out of town two years before he finally got the axe.

To see how true this adage is, I’ve looked at some coaching legends and the guys who followed them. They are as follows, in chronological order from when the legend was hired:

OKLAHOMA

Legend: Bud Wilkinson, 1947-63, 145-29-4 (.826); 3 national and 14 conference titles

Follower: Gomer Jones, 1964-65, 9-11-1 (.452); 0 national or conference titles

Next: Jim Mackenzie, 1966, 6-4 (.600); 0 national or conference titles

This is somewhat of a bad example to start off with, since Mackenzie sadly passed away due to a heart attack after his first season.

Jones definitely had a difficult time following Wilkinson though, having not been able to break even in his two years. Wilkinson is the coach who led Oklahoma to its famed 47-game winning streak, and he failed to win the Big 8 title in only three of his 17 years.

AUBURN

Legend: Shug Jordan, 1951-75, 175-83-7 (.674), 1 national and 1 conference title

Follower: Doug Barfield, 1976-80, 29-25-1 (.536), 0 national or conference titles

Next: Pat Dye, 1981-92, 99-39-4 (.711), 0 national and 4 conference titles

Jordan held the job for 25 years and the stadium is named after him, but his .674 winning percentage is lower than any of the other legends on this list. Barfield followed him up with 5 forgettable seasons, with 8-3 being the best record he posted.

Dye had the most success in his tenure of the three, though he was forced out of his coaching and AD position when it was revealed that assistant coaches and boosters had paid a player. He still is fondly remembered, though, as the field at Jordan-Hare stadium was named after him in 2005.

OHIO STATE

Legend: Woody Hayes, 1951-78, 205-61-10 (.761), 5 national and 13 conference titles

Follower: Earle Bruce, 1979-87, 81-26-1 (.755), 0 national and 4 conference titles

Next: John Cooper, 1988-2000, 111-43-4 (.715), 0 national and 4 conference titles

Earle Bruce did an admirable job in following Woody Hayes after Hayes’ unexpected meltdown and firing. He did not see the same success however, though he nearly won the national title in his first year.

John Cooper is a goat in OSU annals, having posted a 2-10-1 record against Michigan and having presided over numerous academic and discipline problems.

TEXAS

Legend: Darrell Royal, 1957-76, 167-47-5 (.774), 3 national and 11 conference titles

Follower: Fred Akers, 1977-86, 86-31-2 (.731), 0 national and 2 conference titles

Next: David McWilliams, 1987-91, 31-26 (.544), 0 national and 1 conference title

Akers did a much better job than McWilliams did. Akers caught flak though for losing bowl games and in his final few years having bad records against Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

McWilliams’s 1990 SWC championship year looks like a fluke in light of the rest of his seasons, with the 7-5 record in his first year being the second-best record he had.

ALABAMA

Legend: Paul Bryant, 1958-82, 232-46-9 (.824), 6 national and 13 conference titles

Follower: Ray Perkins, 1983-86, 32-15-1 (.677), 0 national or conference titles

Next: Bill Curry, 1987-89, 26-10 (.722), 0 national and 1 conference title

Perkins left the New York Giants to coach at his alma mater, and he left four years later to take a rich contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An incident where a former player that he had recruited claimed he was paid led to the school being placed on probation in 1995.

Curry was doing well in his three years, though he was 0-3 against Auburn. He didn’t like the contract offered to him in 1990, so he left to coach Kentucky.

GEORGIA

Legend: Vince Dooley, 1964-88, 201-77-10 (.715), 1 national and 6 conference titles

Follower: Ray Goff, 1989-95, 46-34-1 (.574), 0 national or conference titles

Next: Jim Donnan, 1996-2000, 40-19 (.678), 0 national or conference titles

Neither Goff nor Donnan panned out for the Bulldogs. They both failed to win even an SEC East title, and both were used as Florida’s whipping boy. Goff is perhaps most famous for being called “Ray Goof” by Steve Spurrier.

MICHIGAN

Legend: Bo Schembechler, 1969-89, 194-48-5 (.796), 0 national and 13 conference titles

Follower: Gary Moeller, 1990-94, 44-13-3 (.758), 0 national and 3 conference titles

Next: Lloyd Carr, 1995-07, 122-40 (.753), 1 national and 5 conference titles

Moeller is a controversial figure for Wolverines due to his messy departure following a drunken altercation at a restaurant. Some argue his best years were already behind him; some argue that he was trying to modernize the program and that Carr won his national title with Moeller’s players.

Carr is one of the few followed-the-guy-who-followed-the-legend guys who actually won a national title. His legacy will remain mixed due to his futility against Jim Tressel and the loss to Appalachian State.

BYU

Legend: LaVell Edwards, 1972-2000, 257-101-3 (.716), 1 national and 19 conference titles

Follower: Gary Crowton, 2001-04, 26-23 (.531), 0 national and 1 conference title

Next: Bronco Mendenhall, 2005-present, 28-10 (.737), 0 national and 2 conference titles

Crowton won the MWC his first year with Edwards’ players, but failed to reach .500 in his remaining three years. Mendenhall has put together consecutive 11-win seasons, winning the MWC title each year. His 2008 team is expected to contend for a BCS bowl.

NEBRASKA

Legend: Tom Osborne, 1973-97, 255-49-3 (.836), 3 national and 13 conference titles

Follower: Frank Solich, 1998-03, 58-19 (.753), 0 national and 1 conference title

Next: Bill Callahan, 2004-07, 27-22 (.551), 0 national or conference titles

Solich is probably the source of the modern “You don’t want to be the guy who follows a legend” movement, having been fired after a 9-win season. Callahan ended up being a disaster, and will probably be despised by Husker fans forever.

FLORIDA

Legend: Steve Spurrier, 1990-2001, 122-27-1 (.817), 1 national and 6 conference titles

Follower: Ron Zook, 2002-04, 23-14 (.622), 0 national and conference titles

Next: Urban Meyer, 2005-present, 31-8 (.795), 1 national and 1 conference title

Zook was doomed from the beginning, having been a fallback choice for the coaching position and having never been a head coach before. He won games he shouldn’t have, but lost games he shouldn’t have too. He also presided over an explosion of off-field issues, including Zook himself being involved in a fight at a frat house. Some Florida fans still defend him, but the overall sentiment is that his hiring was a mistake.

After doubts about his offense abounded in his first year, Meyer solidified his position in his second by winning a national title. Some fans are uncomfortable with his highly aggressive recruiting tactics, which have drawn scrutiny from other coaches and the NCAA, but otherwise Gators are more than happy with his job so far.

*   *   *

Following a legend, regardless of place in line, is not easy. Only Pat Dye clearly surpassed his legendary predecessor’s accomplishments, but his departure was not the stuff of legends.

None of the followers distinguished himself after leaving, though Earle Bruce had a nice run with Iowa State before coaching the Buckeyes. Ron Zook still has time to carve out his legacy at Illinois.

The book is still open for Mendenhall and Meyer, but both appear to be in good shape. Despite their records, most of the coaches in that coveted “guy who followed the guy who followed the legend” role didn’t fare much better than the guy who did follow the legend.

There is some truth to the adage, but in the end good coaches will succeed in good situations regardless of who came before.

Did the BCS Get it Right? Part II

Yesterday, I examined whether in hindsight the BCS got the national championship game participants right. As I have pointed out in the past though, that’s only half of the BCS’s mission:

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a five-game arrangement for post-season college football that is designed to match the two top-rated teams in a national championship game and to create exciting and competitive matchups between eight other highly regarded teams in four other games.

So, did it get the second half correct?

The Sugar Bowl

Participants: 10-2 Georgia vs. 12-0 Hawaii

Result: Georgia 41 - Hawaii 10

This game sure set the tone for the 2008 rendition of the BCS. It was unwatchable unless you are a Dawg or you just liked seeing Hawaii get its comeuppance for actually thinking it belonged in the BCS and then daring to be sanctimonious about it. I feared for Colt Brennan’s life at times, and this game spooked June Jones so much that he actually willingly took the job at SMU.

The Rose Bowl

Participants: 9-3 Illinois vs. 10-2 USC

Result: USC 49 - Illinois 17

This game had the largest margin, and honestly USC could have made it even bigger if it wanted to. Illinois was overmatched from the start, and the Trojans just kept pouring it on as the Illini kept giving the ball away. From everything I’ve read, the nation wanted to see Georgia in this game, but that was kept from happening by two main things: 1) the BCS rules made it so the Sugar would’ve had to give permission to the Rose to take UGA, which it did not, and 2) the Rose Bowl officials think it’s 1960 and believe that there’s nothing better than a Big Ten/Pac 10 matchup.

Illinois had to be in a game somewhere since it finished in the top 14 and was the only eligible team left after you accounted for Hawaii’s auto bid and Georgia and Kansas’ selections. However, it should have been in a game versus someone around its talent level such as Hawaii, Kansas, or Virginia Tech. Note: it’s pretty sad if definite tiers can be seen within the BCS, but that’s the way it goes with the BCS.

The Fiesta Bowl

Participants: 10-2 West Virginia vs. 10-2 Oklahoma

Result: West Virginia 48 - Oklahoma 28

This game was probably not as close as the score indicates, though not nearly to the same degree as the Rose Bowl. The conventional wisdom said that OU had the better talent and was on a roll, as opposed to the poor old Mountaineers who had inexplicably lost to Pitt, keeping them out of the title game, and had lost head coach Rich Rodriguez. Instead, WVU rolled to a comfortable victory, and Bob Stoops’ bowl record now suddenly looks a lot like Larry Coker’s does.

The Orange Bowl

Participants: 10-2 Virginia Tech vs. 11-1 Kansas

Result: Kansas 24 - Virginia Tech 21

This one was the only actual close game, but it was the bad kind of close. Poor offensive execution by both sides hamstrung progress for these two defensive-minded teams, and yet each scored multiple touchdowns. This game proved that Kansas was good but not overwhelmingly so, and that VT (and by proxy, the ACC) probably just was not that good this year. That is all I have to say about the Orange Bowl.

The BCS National Championship Game

Participants: 11-2 LSU vs. 11-1 Ohio State

Result: LSU 38 - Ohio State 24

Ohio State got a garbage time TD late against an LSU prevent defense to keep within three scores, though the game really wasn’t that close after the first quarter. Again the SEC champion embarrassed Big Ten champ OSU in the biggest game of the year, turning the BCS’s experiment of having a special 5th game for the championship into a blowout-fest.

This game technically doesn’t fall under the second part of the BCS mandate, but the fact that it ended up a one-sided blowout reinforces the fact that the first part was botched.

Conclusion

So did the BCS fulfill its mission of creating exciting and competitive matches in the non-championship games? Absolutely not. Only one game (Orange Bowl) was competitive, and none were terribly exciting. As a showcase for the sport, the BCS gets a rating of “EPIC FAIL” for the 2008 bowl season.

Did the BCS Get it Right?

Now that LSU has defeated Ohio State for the BCS title, did the system set up the right championship game? I’ll do a quick rundown of the 1-loss and major conference 2-loss teams then make my case. After all, everything’s clearer with 20-20 hindsight. Teams are listed in alphabetical order, and the “Best Wins” category lists wins over .500 or better teams from major conferences (and Hawaii, if applicable, since the Warriors made a BCS game and had only one loss).

1 Loss Teams

Hawaii Warriors

Best Wins: Boise State, Fresno State

Loss: Georgia, 41-10

No wins over a major conference foe besides the Pac 10’s doormat, Washington. I feared for Colt Brennan’s life in the Sugar Bowl. No way, no how. I’m calling this one right now.

Kansas Jayhawks

Best Wins: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech

Loss: Missouri, 36-28

While losing only once (and only by 8 points) is impressive. However, beating a perpetually suspect Virginia Tech team and a 7-6 Oklahoma State team is not, so Kansas is not helping itself much with the schedule.

2 Loss Teams

Georgia Bulldogs

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma State

Losses: South Carolina, 16-12; Tennessee 35-14

The team was lost a listless until injuries forced Mark Richt to play Knowshown Moreno as a feature back. Uninspired play also forced Richt to pick a new motivational gimmick each week starting with the Florida game, all of which worked. This team was playing some of the best football in the country at the end of the year, but you must consider the season as a whole.

LSU Tigers

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Ohio State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

Losses: Kentucky, 43-37 (3OT); Arkansas, 50-48 (3OT)

It’s hard to accept a national champion who had two losses and gave up 50 points in a game during the season. Still, no one had a better array of wins, and as LSU fans will be quick to point out, the Tigers were undefeated in regulation and won the system everyone agreed upon.

Missouri Tigers

Best Wins: Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Losses: Oklahoma, 41-31; Oklahoma, 38-17

Missouri only lost to one team all year, except that it did so on two separate occasions. The Tigers did have wins over BCS participant Illinois and Arkansas, a team that beat LSU.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Best Wins: Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Losses: Illinois, 28-21; LSU, 38-24

Ohio State had the #1 rated defense in the regular season and was one of the most consistent teams all year. It did however play in the Big Ten, which dropped a stink bomb in bowl season and looks awful now. Plus, Illinois was thrashed by USC and the final score of the LSU game was closer than it should have been.

USC Trojans

Best Wins: Arizona State, Illinois, Oregon State

Losses: Stanford, 24-23; Oregon, 24-17

The Arizona State and Illinois wins were certainly impressive. However, it took until November 3 for the Trojans to beat a team that would finish above .500 for the year. The Stanford loss was unimaginably bad, and though USC had it’s backup QB playing the game, so did the Cardinal. Oregon with a healthy Dennis Dixon was probably the best team all year, and USC lost by just a touchdown.

West Virginia

Best Wins: Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, UConn

Losses: USF, 21-13; Pittsburgh, 13-9

The Fiesta Bowl win was a huge statement, the Miss State win was nearly as big as LSU’s, and the UConn win was overwhelming. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, the Pitt loss was nearly as bad as USC’s loss to Stanford, and the team couldn’t get anything going against USF. In its defense, WVU lost Pat White for large stretched during the two losses.

As a side note, Pitt’s 13-9 win over WVU that sent LSU to the championship game was the same score as the UCLA win over USC last year that sent Florida to the championship game.

Conclusion

Who are the top two teams?

Hawaii is eliminated, period.

Kansas had just two wins over teams that finished above .500 for the year. You’re a nice story, Jayhawks, but you’re also eliminated.

USC, you only had 3 wins over above-.500 teams, and you still lost to Stanford. Total body of work counts, so you’re eliminated.

Ohio State had only 5 wins over winning teams, but it also played a pillow-soft non conference schedule and the Big Ten was deplorable this year.

West Virginia had also 5 wins over winning teams, but it was the weakest set of wins out of the teams with 5. WVU, you’re eliminated.

We’re now down to Georgia, LSU, and Missouri. LSU does belong in the top two because it had seven wins over .500 or above opponents and wins over two other BCS conference champions (ACC, Big Ten). Between Missouri and Georgia, the Bulldogs had more wins over teams .500 or better and beat a team (UK) that beat LSU. But, Missouri’s losses were better and the Tigers played just as well as UGA did in each’s bowl game.

For the moment, I have to pick the team with more quality wins, so I go with Georgia. That leaves an LSU/Georgia game. It might make people from the Midwest or West unhappy, but honestly those two deserved it more.

So no, the BCS didn’t get it right.

Welcome to the Big Leagues, Colt

Last night’s Sugar Bowl was immensely satisfying. I have been sick and tired of the Colt Brennan hype machine since, oh, about last year’s bowl season. It got even worse when Hawaii plundered the bakery that is the WAC and somehow played an even worse non-conference schedule to finish the season undefeated. I didn’t want to see him get injured (although Georgia’s defense appeared to be trying to accomplish just that with as many fearsome hits as it delivered), but to see him humbled on the national stage was great, and possibly even good for him as he heads into draft workouts.

I found an article at Foxsports.com with some quotes of his, and I’d like to share them with you now:

• “When you play against a team like this, you can’t miss a beat. We didn’t do that.”

No joke, Colt. When your whole team has 4 guys who might in a dream scenario play in the NFL, you have to absolutely perfect because every mistake becomes a sack, turnover, or touchdown for the other team.

• “We knew coming in this was probably the best defense we’d ever faced. We really wanted to do something special here tonight, but we just couldn’t get any momentum going. We have a lot of drives that didn’t go anywhere. It wasn’t so much a question of X’s and O’s. They just won the battles all night.”

Perhaps, but your X’s and O’s guru on the sidelines also had a hard time not calling slow-developing pass plays despite the fact you became intimately familiar with the inner workings of the “Sportexe Momentum 41” playing surface of the Superdome.

• “Everybody knows the SEC is the fastest league in the country. We just couldn’t simulate that in practice with our scout team.”

Self-explanatory. It’s similar to Billy Donovan’s comments about Marresse Speights and Alex Tyus - they’re suffering in practice because there’s no one else on the team like them to hone their skills against. Okay, back to football.

• “We had never played in this type of element before. We tried as hard as we could to keep everything the same as we have all season long, but it just seemed like we weren’t used to the venue as big the Super Dome. Georgia plays in this kind of environment in the SEC every week all season.”

If anyone has questioned whether playing on big stages every week helps teams of the major conferences, here’s your proof that it does make a difference. Hawaii started 1st and 20 on its opening drive due to penalties, and it was all downhill from there. Before you bring up Boise State last year, remember that the Broncos had a similar harrowing experience at the hands of Georgia in Sanford Stadium in 2006, and BSU regularly plays at Pac 10 venues.

• “We have done a good job most of the year protecting Colt,” [Head Coach June] Jones said. “But they had eight sacks and a couple of times we didn’t touch anybody. They just blew in and whacked him.”

Well said, June. That about sums up the 2008 Sugar Bowl.

If last year’s Fiesta Bowl set up this season’s craziness from week to week, this year’s Sugar Bowl most likely sets up next year as a season of juggernauts. Florida, Georgia, and maybe LSU in the SEC, Ohio State in the Big Ten, Oklahoma, Missouri, and maybe Texas in the Big 12, and USC in the Pac 10 all appear set to dominate next season.

West Virginia in the Big East would have counted if Rich Rodriguez had stayed, and then Pat White and Steve Slaton would have stayed as well. If WVU hires former Rodriguez assistant and spread option fan Butch Jones away from Central Michigan, and Jones can convince White and Slaton to stay, they might yet have a chance. After all, Jones molded Dan LeFevour into only the second guy to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season, Vince Young being the first.

Virginia Tech will likely be the titan of the ACC, but the rest of that conference save Boston College is so bad, it’d be difficult to tell if the Hokies are really that good. BC won’t qualify as a juggernaut because it wasn’t one this year and is losing its senior starting QB Matt Ryan. No one else in the conference will clock in as better than “surprisingly good.”

BCS Projections

Before everyone gets their picks out, here’s my projections for the BCS:

BCS National Title Game: Ohio State and LSU

Rose Bowl: USC (auto) and Illinois

Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia and Oklahoma(auto)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (auto) and Missouri/Kansas

Sugar Bowl: Georgia and Hawaii

The designation (auto) indicates a conference champion tie-in that will happen by contract.

I project LSU to pass up Virginia Tech since the Tigers beat the Hokies 48-7 earlier this year. I project LSU to pass Georgia because they have identical records, but LSU won the conference while UGA didn’t even win the SEC East. USC won’t pass LSU because USC lost to Stanford. End of that discussion.

The Rose Bowl will take Illinois because it is desperate to set up a Pac 10/Big Ten game every year, and no one else will want the Illini.

The Sugar Bowl will take Georgia because it prefers to have an SEC team. Hawaii has no fans on the mainland, so it too will go to the Sugar Bowl (who has the last pick this year). The Fiesta will have to take Big East champ West Virginia since it won’t want an inter-Big 12 game.

Kansas has a better record than Missouri, but Mizzou won the division and its two losses were to conference champ Oklahoma. My guess is Missouri will get the bid since it is now more well-known than Kansas, but the Jayhawks’ 11-1 record could prove too compelling to pass up.

The only way this could be wrong is if the Fiesta somehow grabs Georgia ahead of the Sugar, sending West Virginia to the Orange and Missouri/Kansas to the Sugar.

As for the Gators, it’s 99% certain we’re in the Citrus Bowl versus Michigan.

Updated 8:25 am to reflect result of Washington - Hawaii game.

EDIT: I should mention that this would make for a terrible year for the BCS. West Virginia/Oklahoma would be the only game guaranteed to be any good, and that’s assuming Pat White will be healthy.

The OSU/LSU title game would obviously be the most hyped, for the teams as well as what’s at stake, but we will be seeing Ohio State up against a barrage of speedy skill players and a hellacious defensive line. Sound familiar? (Honk if you sacked Todd Boeckman!)

USC would thoroughly beat down Illinois. Georgia would thrash Hawaii. Remember that the Warriors play worse the farther east they go, and the last time they played in Louisiana, they eked out a 1 point win over La. Tech. Ouch. Virginia Tech and Missouri/Kansas might be a good game, a classic defense (VT) versus offense (M/K) game, but VT games somehow always end up boring. Unless you’re a Hokie (and maybe especially if you’re a Hokie) they just suck the life out of you as you watch. Plus, the Orange Bowl would have an extremely hard time selling out the stadium. So, if somehow the Orange gets to pick ahead of the Sugar, I wouldn’t be surprised at all for it to take Georgia for ticket selling purposes.

Looking Back and Forward

I was stunned after Auburn; I was disappointed after LSU; I was angry after Georgia.

For one, Mark Richt should have been tossed from the game for having his whole team rush the field. Not suspended or fined after the fact, just thrown out at the time to ensure no one tries to pull copycat performances. For one, it’s classless. Also, it could have incited a riot, given the amount of bad blood between the two teams. Plus, Heath Cline pointed out it was stupid from Georgia’s perspective too - Moreno barely got the nose of the ball in the endzone, and if replay reversed the play, they’re looking at 4th and goal from the 31. It was completely unnecessary and bad from every angle. And to all of you out there talking about how great it worked: no, it didn’t work. Florida marched right back down the field to tie it, and even took a lead later in the half.

The missed opportunities hurt the most. The defense played its worst game this year, and I put far more of the loss on its shoulders than that of the offense. There were two turnovers in the first half that could have led to scores. Florida got the ball 1st and 10 at the UGA 30 thanks to penalties on the kickoff, and three plays later they were taking a delay of game to back up to punt. There was also the play in the second half where Tim Tebow had  Cornelius Ingram wide open over the middle  for an almost certain score but overthrew him. That’s four well-defined instances where the offense could have scored, not to mention when the defense got back-to-back stops in the second half that lead to a total of zero Florida points.

When it comes down to it, like I said earlier, the defense is the problem. Clint McMillan and Javier Estopinan are not SEC-caliber defensive tackles. Kyle Jackson is not an SEC-caliber safety, and Tony Joiner only is when he’s got Reggie Nelson at the other safety spot. The rest is too young to be counted on every play, and it showed. Georgia ran basic running plays, going left between the tackle and guard and doing toss sweeps to either side. It’s not rocket science, but it worked and was eerily reminiscent of the 2004 Mississippi State game where Jerious Norwood ran all over Florida doing the same 4 basic running plays in a random order.

Speaking of historic games, I could have sworn Dan Mullen learned his lesson about the 5 wide set after the 2005 LSU game. If the defense is blitzing every time you go 5 wide, as LSU did then and Georgia did on Saturday, you don’t call slow developing pass plays from that set. It’s that simple, because 5 offensive linemen can’t block 6 defenders for the time required for the receivers to run their routes. Despite this fact being patently obvious, and despite having reaped the consequences of trying to fight it two years ago, Mullen continually called for slow developing plays out of the 5 wide set. Now, I will never claim to have the expertise needed to be an offensive coordinator, and I have not played organized football. However, just because I’m not a singer doesn’t mean I don’t know when a singer is out of tune, and similarly the fact that I can count to 6 means I am qualified to say that having only 5 blockers for a 6-man blitz is a recipe for disaster. Especially when your quarterback has a bum shoulder and you instructed him not to run.

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As for the national scene, Ohio State can be #1 for now, but if Arizona State goes unbeaten then they have to be #1. The Pac 10 is about 1,000,000 times better than the Big Ten, and so is the SEC for that matter. Given the choice, I’d give an undefeated Arizona State and a 1-loss LSU team priority for the national title game over an unbeaten Ohio State. The statistical quality of Ohio State’s schedule is laughable at best, and in won/loss terms like the NCAA uses, it’s just as bad.

That is all.

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There will not be much more this week since I am very busy with class, projects, and job interviews. I am a graduate student, after all. I finish in December, so the interviews are coming by the bunches now, and I have one each day of this week.

If you are in need of a college football fix, by all means click any of the links in the blogroll and you won’t be disappointed.

The Fall Guys

Some of the top teams in the country are showing the classic signs of being set up for a fall, and some don’t. I will now go over some of the teams and why they do or do not look ready to drop like rocks.

So far, Oregon has looked very good, and Dennis Dixon has been spectacular. The Ducks looked like they were just rolling along with a 53-7 win over Washington State, but if you didn’t see anything beyond the score, you’d never suspect anything was wrong.

However, WR Cameron Colvin (he of the fumble out the endzone in the Cal game) broke his ankle in the first half, and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. RB Jeremiah Johnson rushed for two TDs but then fell to a knee injury, and he is out for an uncertain amount of time. Neither is the top at his respective position for the Ducks; in fact, both are number two on the team behind Jonathan Stewart (leading rusher) and Jaison Williams (leading receiver). However, this situation will test Oregon’s depth and put a strain on Stewart especially, since Dixon is the Ducks’ third-leading rusher.

Losing two important skill players in a blowout isn’t just crushing from a personnel standpoint, it can be mentally challenging too. Oregon will probably be fine this week against Washington, but in two weeks they face a still-dangerous USC team, and if the Trojans can get their offensive issues worked out against Notre Dame this week, it could be serious bad news for Oregon. After that come Arizona State, Arizona (who is improving on offense every week), UCLA, and Oregon State. Going 4-2 the rest of the way is definitely possible and wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it probably would disappoint the Oregon fans who are expecting a lot at this point.

Arizona State has also been bit by the injury bug. Leading rusher Ryan Torain is gone for the season with a dislocated and/or broken big toe incurred in the game against Washington last Saturday. Torain had played in 6 of the Sun Devils’ 7 games and rushed for 553 yards on 110 carries. Keegan Herring takes over the starting role, but despite having played in all 7 games, he has just 480 yards on 73 carries. He’s not bad, but he’s clearly not as good as Torain.

While Arizona State has a bye this week to adjust, this injury still comes at a very bad time for the team. So far, ASU has played just two BCS schools with winning records - Colorado and Oregon State - and it took Oregon State a miracle win over Cal and its backup QB just to get back over .500 again. The schedule has been soft, but not anymore the rest of the season.

In two weeks, the Sun Devils get Cal and presumably a healthy Nate Longshore. After that is a trip to Oregon, a trip to UCLA (who is undefeated in Pac 10 play), and then USC and Arizona at home to end the year. It would not be out of the question to see Arizona State finish 3-2 or even 2-3 against that slate. Remember, this team only went 7-6 last year, and while Dennis Erickson is a step up from Dirk Koetter, it’s still roughly that same team.

It’s always bad karma to talk about your upcoming opponent as being ready for a fall since it tends to jinx your team, but whatever. Rich Brooks may have heaped an even bigger jinx on his team this week with his comments.

Specifically, it’s his comments about Andre Woodson deserving to be in the Heisman race. Usually once coaches and players start talking about individual awards, the player in question comes out and flops. Granted, Brooks was talking more in generalities about the award and whether mass mailings and other promotions (the “Joey Heisman” billboard comes to mind) are necessary, and he says no with as many people commenting on the Heisman every week out there and the ability of technology to let everyone see all the important highlights.

He still had these sound bites:

• “Andre Woodson is right at the first discussion in every Heisman ballot, and he should be. So we just have to keep going.”
• “Andre Woodson was not in the conversation when we started the year. He’s in every conversation now, as he deserves to be.”

That’s practically open campaigning for his guy, and that’s classic jinx territory. Hopefully I didn’t negate the jinx by pointing it out before the fact. You know, this is why I’m not superstitious; it’s too hard to keep everything straight. Still, don’t be surprised if Woodson lays an egg this weekend.

Ohio State has Michigan State, and it will be the first big test for the Buckeyes. Purdue is an impostor just like every year, so the Boilers don’t count. Michigan State has a much more impressive offense than you think - the Spartans have better offensive stats than Ohio State does across the board despite playing overall a tougher defensive schedule than OSU. Michigan State’s opponents collectively rank 68th and 75th in total and scoring defense; Ohio State’s opponents collectively rank 86th and 84th in total and scoring defense.

Still, Ohio State has nearly everyone back on defense from last year, and the offense hasn’t completely descended back into the cave where it resided for the first few years of Jim Tressel’s tenure there. It’s hard to say for sure how good OSU is since its schedule is so weak, but Ohio State has top-notch talent and a proven track record and coaching staff.

Out of the remaining games, who will beat Ohio State? Michigan State has a better offense, but a much weaker defense and is probably a couple years away from contending in the Big Ten. Do you think Anthony Morelli could beat the Buckeyes’ defense and hold onto the ball enough to win the game? Wisconsin is in a freefall, and won’t likely come within two touchdowns of Ohio State. Illinois won’t beat them since Ohio State can stop the run, and if you do that you stop Illinois. Finally, what has Michigan done this year that inspires any sort of confidence that it can pull off the game? Chad Henne is still the quarterback, and Lloyd Carr is still the coach. It wouldn’t be a shock, but I would be surprised if Ohio State lost a game the rest of the way.

Rutgers is a trendy pick this week to upset USF. I think part of that is that a lot of the media folks who didn’t pick the Bulls to do this well are looking for any opportunity to see them fall back down. The two most common reasons I’ve heard for USF losing is the weather in New Jersey and Ray Rice.

First, the weather. The game is at 7:30 pm, and the forecast is a high of 70 and a low of 49. The chance of rain is just 10% and the wind at night will be at 8 mph. In other words, it’s going to be classic football weather. It will start in the low to mid 60s and end in the low to mid 50s. That’s really not that cold, and I can tell you as a Florida native that we get that kind weather from November through March or April, so it’s not like all the Florida boys on USF will be freezing. As I said, it’ll be classic football weather, and it won’t play a factor in the game.

Second, Ray Rice isn’t going to be anything the Bulls haven’t already seen this year. They just played against Kevin Smith of UCF, formerly the leading rusher in Div. I-A, and held him to 56 yards. Mike Teel is a better quarterback than UCF’s Kyle Israel is, but Rutgers has yet to play a defense like what USF has, and the Scarlet Knights already have two losses. USF may have a loss or two coming, but I don’t think this week is the week.

This Week’s SSOS

This week’s Statistical Strength of Schedule is brought to you by the letters U, F, T, um… T again, and the number 15.

I’ve got the new SSOS figures calculated for this week, and the BCS conference teams are definitely benefiting from more conference play. At least those who played conference games did. Overall conference numbers were better across the board. Now, I’ll go over the top 25, and look at who were the biggest risers and fallers.

As with last week, the SSOS score is taken by averaging all of each team’s opponent’s total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense ranks, then averaging those together to come out with a final SSOS score. The top 25:

1. Notre Dame, 35.21 points, no change in rank from last week
2. Washington, 37.71, +1
3. Stanford, 43.88, -1
4. Florida Int’l, 46.50, +2
5. Auburn, 46.68, NC
6. Tennessee, 49.08, +2
7. Syracuse, 49.18, +12
8. East Carolina, 51.96, -1
9. Utah State, 52.17, +12
10. Oregon State, 52.18, +13
11. Colorado, 52.50, +4
12. Nebraska, 52.68, -3
13. Washington State, 52.79, +1
14. Mississippi, 53.29, -4
15. UNLV, 54.64, +13
16. Arizona, 54.86, +11
17. Duke, 55.00, +3
18. BYU, 55.21, -7
19. Colorado State, 56.17, +3
20. SMU, 56.67, +20
21. LSU, 56.75, +20
22. Akron, 57.00, -18
23. Kansas State, 57.46, +3
24. Marshall, 57.54, -11
25. Wyoming, 57.96, +37

You can see the full list here: 10-13-07.pdf

Note: The Nevada - Boise State game from Sunday is not included as the official NCAA stats only include the games through Saturday, October 13.

Average SSOS by Losses

Again, we see that the undefeated teams have played by far the easiest schedules. USF is in the third quartile at 56, but every other unbeaten team is in the triple digits of easiest schedule: Ohio State is at 107, Arizona State is at 109, BC is at 113, Kansas is at 116, and Hawaii is dead last at 119. The gap between no losses and one loss has opened up from almost 7 points to almost 12 points.

Also, we see the 2-loss teams with a trend-breakingly difficult schedule average, but it’s for the same reason as last week: an unusual number of teams from BCS leagues find themselves sitting on two losses. Auburn, Tennessee, and Kansas State are all 2-losss teams in the top quintile of SOS, and six other 2-loss teams from BCS leagues are in the second quintile. Other than that, it’s a nicely downward-curved line showing that the more losses a team has, generally the more difficult a schedule they’ve played. I’d be interested to see if there’s another SOS measure that shows such a nice relationship as this one does. That very neat inverted parabola shape inspires confidence in me that this is an accurate method of looking at SOS.

Biggest Movers

This week’s top gainers:

1. Wyoming, +37 in the standings, its opponent last week was New Mexico
2. Nevada, +35, Fresno State
3. Baylor, +34, Kansas
4. North Carolina, +33, South Carolina
5. San Jose State, +33, Hawaii
6. Wisconsin, +33, Penn State
7. Missouri, +31, Oklahoma
8. UCF, +27, USF
9. FAU, +26, Bye
10. Michigan, +26, Purdue
11. Oklahoma, +26, Missouri

Oklahoma and Missouri perfectly illustrate what can happen when two good teams play each other: they both dramatically improve each other’s SOS score. LSU and Kentucky did the same for each other, each moving up 20 and 15 spots respectively, only to a lesser degree since LSU and Kentucky both had played tougher schedules than OU and Mizzou.

This weeks biggest losers:

1. North Texas, -42 spots in the standings, its opponent last week was UL-Monroe
2. UTEP, -39, East Carolina
3. Temple, -34, Akron
4. Tulane, -33, UAB
5. TCU, -29, Stanford
6. Rutgers, -29, Syracuse
7. Western Michigan, -25, Northern Illinois
8. Miami (Ohio), -22, Bowling Green
9. Toledo, -21, Buffalo
10. Houston, -21, Rice

Remember kids, playing a U-L U-Pick ‘em team can be disastrous to your strength of schedule. Arkansas State played the other half, UL-Lafayette, and fell 11 spots to 97th, but with a schedule already in the 80s, Ark State only had so much room to fall.

SOS by Conference

Total Average SOS for all 119 Teams: 65.54

Best Schedule: Washington, 2^nd overall, score of 37.71

Worst Schedule: USC, 111^th,80.04

Average SOS Rank: 32.00

Average SOS Score: 58.64

Best Schedule: Auburn, 5^th overall, score of 46.68

Worst Schedule: Vanderbilt, 95, 60.51

Average SOS Rank: 39.92

Average SOS Score: 60.51

Best Schedule: Colorado, 11^th overall, score of 52.50

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 116^th, 84.21

Average SOS Rank: 48.91

Average SOS Score: 65.04

Best Schedule: Duke, 17^th overall, score of 55.00

Worst Schedule: Boston College, 113th, 80.21

Average SOS Rank: 53.73

Average SOS Score: 65.95

Best Schedule: Minnesota, 26^th overall, score of 57.96

Worst Schedule: Ohio State, 107, 77.29

Average SOS Rank: 61.80

Average SOS Score: 67.18

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 7^th overall, score of 49.18

Worst Schedule: UConn, 118^th, 86.83

Average SOS Rank: 74.71

Average SOS Score: 70.71

The Big 12 overtook the ACC for third place among the conferences, and the Pac 10 opened up a slightly larger lead over the SEC. Still, the Pac 10 and SEC are leaving everyone else behind in terms of SOS. These two conferences should remain in the lead since the teams in them will be playing each other the rest of the year and they are clearly the two best conferences in America.

Most Important Thing: Never trust a won/loss record; look inside it to see if its foundation is rock or sand, and then, and only then, create a poll. There is absolutely no reason for Ohio State to be ranked #1.

BCS Title Game Preview, Part 2

Today started as a really dreary day here in Gainesville. It was cool, overcast, and drizzly. Shortly after noon though it began to break and now it is a beautiful day. Basically, it was a typical cold front day. It may feel fine now, but it’ll get colder after the sun goes down. If the Gators win tonight, expect to see lots of jackets, sweatshirts, and knitted wool hats.

Bonus Overrated Media Story

The SEC Has More Speed than the Big 10

While this may be true overall, on a top-to-bottom basis, let’s face it: everyone has speed nowadays. Florida has it, Ohio State has it, and if you saw any of the Fiesta Bowl, you’ll know that even Boise State has it. With the way that training science has improved over the years, it turns out you probably can teach speed, or at least improve it. Ted Ginn and Percy Harvin have the unteachable kind of speed, but with the kind of facilities and resources that most college programs have, everyone has speed.

Stuff that Actually Matters

The Layoffs

Both coaches in this game have proved that they are sharp if you give them extra time to prepare, so that’s a non-factor. What does matter is how much time both teams have had off. Ohio State’s 51-day break from games will be a factor initially because no team can go that long without a game and play well for all 60 minutes. Ohio State will find their groove again, but I don’t expect to see the Buckeyes light up the scoreboard in the first quarter without big help from turnovers or special teams.

Florida has had a more traditional break, but their problem is one that has been there for the past 4 years: focus. The Gators have a hard time handling success during a game lately, which is why there have been so few blowouts and the Ron Zook-led teams gave away so many leads. You can always tell when it’s going to happen too: they’ll come out for a kickoff jumping around, waving their arms, pointing at the crowd, and then the defense will come out and do the same. Scoring drives of 5 plays or less usually follow this behavior. Urban Meyer has done a lot to curb this, but half of the team is still Zook players, and this will remain a concern for me at least the whole game.

Reggie Nelson

This guy is as crucial a player as there is in this game. Florida’s secondary is undersized and inexperienced. Nelson and Ryan Smith have player pretty well for the most part, but Tony Joiner is not going to be at full-strength and Reggie Lewis cannot be trusted against top-flight receivers. Beyond that, you have the freshman Dorian Monroe and the McCollum brothers. These are hardly promising prospects against the talent Ohio State has on offense.

This brings us back to Reggie Nelson. He and/or Ryan Smith have made some kind of huge play in the second half of every win that in some capacity seals the game for Florida. The only game that neither made such a play in was the Auburn game. These guys need to make something happen. Nelson will be very emotional with the recent passing of his mother, with whom he was very close. I expect he’ll try to play hard in her honor and memory, but I hope that doesn’t mean he overpursues looking to make a big hit somewhere. He’s been known to do that when he gets excited. Nelson must play well for Florida to have a chance.

Eliminating the Big Mistake

Whether it is Eric Wilbur dropping a punt or Chris Leak throwing bad interceptions, this Gator team has been susceptible to making very bad plays at inopportune times. Each of Florida’s past two games they have come out flat after halftime and had a terrible third quarter. In the Arkansas game, it was probably because at halftime they heard that USC had lost and they lost focus, as I have described above, allowing their minds to go to Arizona before finishing the job in Atlanta. Having that one disastrous quarter against Ohio State means going home humiliated.

Close Game Experience

Nearly everyone agrees that this game will be close. Florida has had much more experience in winning close games than OSU has had this year. From rallying from 10 points down at Tennessee to putting Arkansas away after falling behind in the second half, Florida has been winning close games all year. Ohio State on the other hand, has really only been in danger once, against Illinois, and the Illini would have had to drive the length of the field to tie it up (highly unlikely given the two teams involved). And no, the Michigan game was not that close.

I don’t know how good Ohio State is in a hurry-up offense because I just haven’t seen that much game film of them playing. I do know that Chris Leak is at his absolute best in the 2-minute drill. When he’s out there just throwing and not thinking hard, not worrying about having to run the option, and knowing exactly where he needs to put the ball (near the sidelines), he executes with outstanding precision. When it comes to the last two minutes, I have much more faith in Florida’s ability to move the ball down the field and score than I do in its ability to keep an opposing offense from moving down the field to get within field goal range.

Well, hopefully there’s some unique things in there for you. Final predictions in a bit.

BCS Title Game Preview, Part 1

Today is the first day of classes at UF. If something smells funny about that, it would be because the same institution that sold student tickets for tonight’s game in Arizona also expects students to be in class today. It doesn’t matter for me as I am a graduate student now, and the grad school sets its own calendar, but there is just a hint of hypocrisy about this. In any event, this will have to be in parts because of that and I don’t know how many parts there will be.

Overrated Media Stories

1. Jim Tressel is Conservative but Urban Meyer is Crazy!

In the past, Jim Tressel coached football like he was in the 1960s SEC. This year though, he’s had far too many good wide receivers not to spread the field. Ohio State’s spread is more conservative than Florida’s is, but it’s not like Tressel goes into run-out-the-clock mode with a lead in the second quarter. He knows the Florida defense is good, and I expect to see him call some tricks as a result.

2. Holy Cow! Percy Harvin vs. Ted Ginn!!!

Yes, both are dynamic talents, but it’s not like they’re going to be playing directly against each other. There are some similarities, but there are also some differences in the way that they are used, namely that Ginn is used as a return man and Harvin takes handoffs in the backfield. Ginn also is more elusive in traffic, whereas Harvin is more of a one-move-and-blow-by-you kind of guy. Are they important guys for their teams? Absolutely. However, the quarterback, linebacker, and secondary play for both teams is far more important than these two guys. They’re momentum swingers at best.

3. Florida Can’t Run the Ball

Um, yes it can. Florida averaged the same yardage per rush as Ohio State did, and averaged 160 yards rushing per game in a conference where “Stop the Run!” is the motto for 11 of the 12 teams (I’m not sure that Vanderbilt has a football motto). Ohio State has the more traditional run game, with a workhorse back and a burner for a change of pace. Florida has done it by a committee approach with a mix of running backs and receivers, with Tim Tebow for short-yardage situations. Tebow has shown in some instances that he can run for big gains, but he’s unlikely to have such plays called for him this game.

The biggest factor for Florida here is that DeShawn Wynn is healthy again. He showed he can carry the load against Tennessee, but the coaches have also shown that they can forget about him entirely, such as in the FSU game. If Florida plans on running the ball effectively against Ohio State, it will have to do it at least in part by using Wynn effectively. This reeks of potential redemption game for him.

That’s all for now, more to come later.