Did the BCS Get it Right?

Now that LSU has defeated Ohio State for the BCS title, did the system set up the right championship game? I’ll do a quick rundown of the 1-loss and major conference 2-loss teams then make my case. After all, everything’s clearer with 20-20 hindsight. Teams are listed in alphabetical order, and the “Best Wins” category lists wins over .500 or better teams from major conferences (and Hawaii, if applicable, since the Warriors made a BCS game and had only one loss).

1 Loss Teams

Hawaii Warriors

Best Wins: Boise State, Fresno State

Loss: Georgia, 41-10

No wins over a major conference foe besides the Pac 10’s doormat, Washington. I feared for Colt Brennan’s life in the Sugar Bowl. No way, no how. I’m calling this one right now.

Kansas Jayhawks

Best Wins: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech

Loss: Missouri, 36-28

While losing only once (and only by 8 points) is impressive. However, beating a perpetually suspect Virginia Tech team and a 7-6 Oklahoma State team is not, so Kansas is not helping itself much with the schedule.

2 Loss Teams

Georgia Bulldogs

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma State

Losses: South Carolina, 16-12; Tennessee 35-14

The team was lost a listless until injuries forced Mark Richt to play Knowshown Moreno as a feature back. Uninspired play also forced Richt to pick a new motivational gimmick each week starting with the Florida game, all of which worked. This team was playing some of the best football in the country at the end of the year, but you must consider the season as a whole.

LSU Tigers

Best Wins: Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Ohio State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

Losses: Kentucky, 43-37 (3OT); Arkansas, 50-48 (3OT)

It’s hard to accept a national champion who had two losses and gave up 50 points in a game during the season. Still, no one had a better array of wins, and as LSU fans will be quick to point out, the Tigers were undefeated in regulation and won the system everyone agreed upon.

Missouri Tigers

Best Wins: Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Losses: Oklahoma, 41-31; Oklahoma, 38-17

Missouri only lost to one team all year, except that it did so on two separate occasions. The Tigers did have wins over BCS participant Illinois and Arkansas, a team that beat LSU.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Best Wins: Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Losses: Illinois, 28-21; LSU, 38-24

Ohio State had the #1 rated defense in the regular season and was one of the most consistent teams all year. It did however play in the Big Ten, which dropped a stink bomb in bowl season and looks awful now. Plus, Illinois was thrashed by USC and the final score of the LSU game was closer than it should have been.

USC Trojans

Best Wins: Arizona State, Illinois, Oregon State

Losses: Stanford, 24-23; Oregon, 24-17

The Arizona State and Illinois wins were certainly impressive. However, it took until November 3 for the Trojans to beat a team that would finish above .500 for the year. The Stanford loss was unimaginably bad, and though USC had it’s backup QB playing the game, so did the Cardinal. Oregon with a healthy Dennis Dixon was probably the best team all year, and USC lost by just a touchdown.

West Virginia

Best Wins: Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, UConn

Losses: USF, 21-13; Pittsburgh, 13-9

The Fiesta Bowl win was a huge statement, the Miss State win was nearly as big as LSU’s, and the UConn win was overwhelming. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, the Pitt loss was nearly as bad as USC’s loss to Stanford, and the team couldn’t get anything going against USF. In its defense, WVU lost Pat White for large stretched during the two losses.

As a side note, Pitt’s 13-9 win over WVU that sent LSU to the championship game was the same score as the UCLA win over USC last year that sent Florida to the championship game.

Conclusion

Who are the top two teams?

Hawaii is eliminated, period.

Kansas had just two wins over teams that finished above .500 for the year. You’re a nice story, Jayhawks, but you’re also eliminated.

USC, you only had 3 wins over above-.500 teams, and you still lost to Stanford. Total body of work counts, so you’re eliminated.

Ohio State had only 5 wins over winning teams, but it also played a pillow-soft non conference schedule and the Big Ten was deplorable this year.

West Virginia had also 5 wins over winning teams, but it was the weakest set of wins out of the teams with 5. WVU, you’re eliminated.

We’re now down to Georgia, LSU, and Missouri. LSU does belong in the top two because it had seven wins over .500 or above opponents and wins over two other BCS conference champions (ACC, Big Ten). Between Missouri and Georgia, the Bulldogs had more wins over teams .500 or better and beat a team (UK) that beat LSU. But, Missouri’s losses were better and the Tigers played just as well as UGA did in each’s bowl game.

For the moment, I have to pick the team with more quality wins, so I go with Georgia. That leaves an LSU/Georgia game. It might make people from the Midwest or West unhappy, but honestly those two deserved it more.

So no, the BCS didn’t get it right.

A Brief History of the Post-Season in America

I am going to be doing a haphazardly-published series on playoffs and college football. I would prefer to see a playoff decide a champion rather than polls,  for the record. This is the first in the series.

The longest-running post-season event in major American professional sports is baseball’s World Series. The first one was in 1903, when the National League and American League, then two completely separate entities, organized under the mantle of Major League Baseball. Each league’s champion played a best-of-9 series to determine the overall champion. The necessity for this playoff was the fact that AL and NL teams didn’t play each other during the regular season. After a dispute canceled the series in 1904, it returned in 1905 and would be played every year since except the strike-shortened 1994 season.

The next-oldest professional post-season event is the NHL Playoffs, as the league has had some sort of playoff determining a champion every year since its inception in 1917. The lone except is 1920, when the Ottawa Senators won both halves of the regular season and the league decided a playoff would be unnecessary. The league’s regular season system was strange up until that point; read the Wikipedia page linked to above for details.

After that, you have the NFL playoffs. The NFL was founded in 1920, but from its founding until 1932, no playoffs were held. From 1920 to 1923, the champion was selected by the owners voting at the annual owners meeting. From 1924 to 1932, the team with the highest winning percentage won the championship as the teams all played different numbers of games. In 1932, the Chicago Bears and Portsmouth Spartans tied for the lead in winning percentage, so a one game playoff was thrown together hastily to determine a champion.

Responding to fan interest in the game, the NFL split itself into two divisions (East and West) in 1933. From then on, playoff games were held if necessary as tiebreakers and then the east and west division winners played in a championship game. A consistent tournament to determine who got to play in the NFL title game was not held until 1967 when the league expanded to 16 teams. The first Super Bowl was played in 1967 as a championship game between the NFL and AFL winners, and it became the NFL championship game after the AFL/NFL merger in 1970.

The NBA playoffs have occurred every year since the precursor BAA league was founded in 1947. The league had east and west divisions from the start, and at least the top three teams from each division have appeared in the playoffs every year. Perhaps the relatively late founding of the NBA allowed it to observe the other leagues and set up a proper playoff tournament from the start.

The NCAA

The precursor to what we know as the NCAA was the Intercollegiate Athletic Association of the United States (IAAUS). It was founded by Teddy Roosevelt after his son broke his collarbone playing football at Harvard while running the offense known as the flying wedge. The idea was to have a governing body setting rules for collegiate sports to cut back on the injuries and yes, deaths, being experienced by college athletes. The organization took the name NCAA in 1910.

The NCAA at first was a a discussion group and rule-setting club until 1921, when the first NCAA championship was officially recognized: the National Collegiate Track and Field Championships won by Illinios. In the years since, it has come to sponsor 44 women’s, 41 men’s, and 3 coed championships.

The only sanctioned sport without a recognized champion is Division I-A football, a.k.a. the Football Bowl Subdivision. Only in the sport of football is a relevant distinction made between multiple parts of Division I.

Bowl Games

As we all know, I-A football uses a system of bowl games as its post-season fare. They were originally a method of attracting tourists for the areas in which they were played, and they were scheduled around the new year to give fans time to plan trips and travel to the site.

The first bowl game was the “Rose Bowl” of 1902. I put it in quotes because while it was put on by the  Tournament of Roses, it was called the “Tournament East-West Football Game.” It featured a dominant Michigan team versus a decent Stanford team, and it ended in the third quarter when Stanford quit while trailing 49-0. The Tournament of Roses was so scarred by the blowout, it wouldn’t sponsor a football game again until 1916. The game wouldn’t take on the name “Rose Bowl” until 1923 when the stadium known as the Rose Bowl was completed and hosted the game. Fun fact: it wasn’t actually a bowl stadium at the time, but a horseshoe stadium.

The Rose Bowl pitted a team from the Pacific Coast Conference (the predecessor to the Pac 10) and an eastern US team up until 1947, when the champions of what are now the Pac 10 and Big Ten became the annual contestants. It was the only major bowl until 1930, and the oldest surviving bowl games besides the Rose are the Sugar, Orange, and Sun Bowls, all founded in 1935. Besides those, the Cotton (1937), Gator (1946), and Florida Citrus (1947) are the only bowls that have been held consistently for more than 50 years. The first major bowl with a title sponsor was the (in)famous Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl, operating under that name from 1990-1996.

Football Playoffs

Up until 1973, the NCAA had two divisions - the University Division, roughly football’s Division I, and the College Division, roughly football’s Divisions II and III. In 1973, the I-II-III system was set up, and Divisions II and III immediately began holding playoff tournaments for football. Division I did not, however, set up a playoff tournament thanks to the tradition of the bowls and polls.

In 1978, the NCAA partitioned Division I into three divisions: I-A for the principal football schools, I-AA for the lesser football schools, and I-AAA for the Division I schools that did not play football. Division I-AA from its inception has had some sort of playoff tournament, probably because none of its participating schools would be bowl material. This fact confirms that the real reason I-A has no playoffs is due to the bowls; every other excuse given (demands on players, the sanctity of the regular season, etc.) is secondary to the bowl games. The NCAA must have realized in the late ’70s that teams with no hope of making a bowl were playing meaningless seasons, so a separate division with playoffs included was created. No other reason for the existence of Division I subdivisions makes sense.

The Polls

The absence of an officially recognized champion of major college football naturally created a power vacuum of sorts that many organizations have been eager to fill in. The NCAA on its website keeps a record of every major poll service’s pick for national champion dating back to 1869. No polls existed at that time, but poll services such as Richard Billingsley, the National Championship Foundation, and Parke Davis have gone back and somehow come up with champs for all those years.

The two oldest surviving polls are the AP poll and the Coaches’ Poll, the latter initially being published by UPI before being taken over by the USA Today in 1991. The AP poll began in 1936, but it didn’t release a post-bowl season poll until 1965, and it wouldn’t do so on a consistent basis until 1968. The Coaches’ poll, for its part, began in 1950 and didn’t release post-bowl season polls until 1974.

Over time, mathematicians began taking cracks at making polls since human-based opinion polls can be influenced by bias, ignorance, and misinformation. The BCS has used a variety of them over its decade of existence, but the ones used today are Jeff Sagarin’s ELO-CHESS, Richard Billingsley, Anderson and Hester, Kenneth Massey, Peter Wolfe, and the Wes Colley Matrix. This group was chosen because they all do not rely on margin of victory.

One final human poll has come to prominence, the Harris Interactive Poll, after the AP pulled out of the BCS formula in 2005. The poll is made of former players, coaches, administrators, and current and former media members selected at random from a pool of candidates. Harris Interactive is a market research firm that specializes in opinion polls.

A National Title Game

For the most part, national champions for Division I/I-A football since 1950 are recognized to be the final #1 in the AP and Coaches’ Polls. That’s fine when they agree with each other, but what if they disagreed? You’d get two teams with equally legitimate claims at a title. How could one convince both
to vote for the same #1? Why, by having a national title game, of course.

The first attempt at creating a national title game was the formation of the Bowl Coalition. It consisted of the SEC, Big 8, SWC, ACC, and Big East partnering with the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, and Cotton Bowls. The idea was that the site of the national title game would rotate among the four bowls, and it’d take the #1 and #2-ranked teams from the AP and play them against each other. This setup might require the breaking of tie-ins of conference champions to their traditional bowls, but the Coalition agreement made that possible. It lasted from 1992-94.

You may notice the absence of the Pac 10, Big Ten, and Rose Bowl. They did not participate in the Coalition, and they kept their traditional arrangements with each other. This resulted in 1994 of  #1 Nebraska playing #3 Miami in the “national title game” while #2 Penn State played in the Rose Bowl.

Following the formation of the Big 12, the Bowl Coalition was replaced by the Bowl Alliance. It consisted of the SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Big East along with the Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta Bowls. The purpose and goal was the same as the Coalition’s, but the absence of the Pac 10, Big Ten, and Rose Bowl created the same problem. Twice a #1 vs. #3 game was forced to occur in the so-called national title game. It lasted from 1995-97.

In 1998, the three stubborn laggards finally came aboard to form the Bowl Championship Series. The goal was the same - have #1 and #2 play each other - only this time it would use the AP poll, Coaches’ Poll, and an index of computer polls to determine #1 and #2. Initially, strength of schedule and losses were their own categories, and in 2002 a quality win category was included as well.

By 2002, the BCS purged all computer models that included margin of victory to discourage teams from running up the score. However, it’s impossible to keep the human element from considering it, and margin of victory definitely plays a part in the human-generated polls. In 2004, it was streamlined to include just the human and computer polls with no other categories. In 2005, the Harris Poll replaced the AP poll. In 2006, the system was tweaked to deemphasize the computers, and the result has been that the human polls control the BCS formula almost completely. Only a huge anomaly in the computer element could override a unanimous human selection. That situation creates a Catch-22, since such an anomaly would likely cause an outrage, probably leading to further deemphasizing of the computers.

A Brief Timeline of the Post-Season in America

1902: The Tournament East-West Football Game

1903: The first World Series

1916: First annual Rose Bowl game

1917: NHL formed; first NHL playoffs

1921: First officially recognized NCAA championship

1932: First NFL Championship Game

1935: First annual Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Sun Bowl

1936: First AP Football Poll

1937: First annual Cotton Bowl

1939: First NCAA men’s basketball tournament, consisted of 8 teams

1946: First annual Gator Bowl

1947: First annual Florida Citrus Bowl

1947: Advent of NBA precursor; first annual NBA basketball playoffs

1950: First Football Coaches’ Poll

1965: First post-bowl season AP poll

1967: First Super Bowl

1968: First annual post-bowl season AP poll

1971: First annual Fiesta Bowl

1973: NCAA creates Divisions I, II, III; first annual D-II and D-III football playoffs

1974: First annual post-bowl season Coaches’ Poll

1978: NCAA creates Div. I-AA; first annual I-AA football playoffs

1984: NBA playoffs expands to current 16-team format

1985: NCAA men’s basketball tournament expands to 64 teams

1990: NFL playoffs expands to current amount of 12 teams

1992: Bowl Coalition formed

1992: SEC expands to 12 teams, plays first ever football conference championship game

1993: NHL playoffs expand to current format

1994: MLB institutes the wild card; World Series canceled due to strike

1995: Bowl Alliance formed

1996: Big 12 formed; first Big 12 Championship Game

1998: BCS formed

2001: NCAA men’s basketball tournament adds 65th team, play-in game

2002: NFL reorganizes to 8 divisions, drops one wild card per conference to keep playoffs at 12

2003: Split national title between LSU and USC; BCS formula completely rewritten

2004: NASCAR implements its “Chase for the Cup” quasi-playoff system

2005: ACC expands to 12 teams; first ACC Championship Game

2005: AP Poll drops out of BCS formula, Harris Poll is formed to replace it

BCS Projections

Before everyone gets their picks out, here’s my projections for the BCS:

BCS National Title Game: Ohio State and LSU

Rose Bowl: USC (auto) and Illinois

Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia and Oklahoma(auto)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (auto) and Missouri/Kansas

Sugar Bowl: Georgia and Hawaii

The designation (auto) indicates a conference champion tie-in that will happen by contract.

I project LSU to pass up Virginia Tech since the Tigers beat the Hokies 48-7 earlier this year. I project LSU to pass Georgia because they have identical records, but LSU won the conference while UGA didn’t even win the SEC East. USC won’t pass LSU because USC lost to Stanford. End of that discussion.

The Rose Bowl will take Illinois because it is desperate to set up a Pac 10/Big Ten game every year, and no one else will want the Illini.

The Sugar Bowl will take Georgia because it prefers to have an SEC team. Hawaii has no fans on the mainland, so it too will go to the Sugar Bowl (who has the last pick this year). The Fiesta will have to take Big East champ West Virginia since it won’t want an inter-Big 12 game.

Kansas has a better record than Missouri, but Mizzou won the division and its two losses were to conference champ Oklahoma. My guess is Missouri will get the bid since it is now more well-known than Kansas, but the Jayhawks’ 11-1 record could prove too compelling to pass up.

The only way this could be wrong is if the Fiesta somehow grabs Georgia ahead of the Sugar, sending West Virginia to the Orange and Missouri/Kansas to the Sugar.

As for the Gators, it’s 99% certain we’re in the Citrus Bowl versus Michigan.

Updated 8:25 am to reflect result of Washington - Hawaii game.

EDIT: I should mention that this would make for a terrible year for the BCS. West Virginia/Oklahoma would be the only game guaranteed to be any good, and that’s assuming Pat White will be healthy.

The OSU/LSU title game would obviously be the most hyped, for the teams as well as what’s at stake, but we will be seeing Ohio State up against a barrage of speedy skill players and a hellacious defensive line. Sound familiar? (Honk if you sacked Todd Boeckman!)

USC would thoroughly beat down Illinois. Georgia would thrash Hawaii. Remember that the Warriors play worse the farther east they go, and the last time they played in Louisiana, they eked out a 1 point win over La. Tech. Ouch. Virginia Tech and Missouri/Kansas might be a good game, a classic defense (VT) versus offense (M/K) game, but VT games somehow always end up boring. Unless you’re a Hokie (and maybe especially if you’re a Hokie) they just suck the life out of you as you watch. Plus, the Orange Bowl would have an extremely hard time selling out the stadium. So, if somehow the Orange gets to pick ahead of the Sugar, I wouldn’t be surprised at all for it to take Georgia for ticket selling purposes.

SSOS This Week

On my travels, I found enough time to cobble together the SSOS for this week. Top 25:

1. Notre Dame (NC)
2. Washington (NC)
3. Colorado (+2)
4. FIU (+5)
5. Ole Miss (+1)
6. Nebraska (+2)
7. Stanford (-3)
8. Auburn (-5)
9. Washington State (-2)
10. Tennessee (NC)
11. Duke (+4)
12. Maryland (+13)
13. UNLV (+4)
14. Syracuse (+4)
15. San Diego State (+12)
16. USF (+5)
17. Iowa State (+6)
18. California (+4)
19. LSU (NC)
20. Kentucky (-
21. Utah State (-7)
22. NC State (+
23. Oregon (+24)
24. Oklahoma State (NC)
25. Florida (+6)

Full List: 10-27-07.pdf

Average SSOS By Losses

It’s a little more noisy now, but the huge gap between the unbeatens and everyone else is very apparent. Ohio State improved to 79th with its game against Penn State, but the other four undefeated teams are still in the triple digits. Arizona State stands to improve the most this week with its game against Oregon, but it will also have the toughest test with its game against Oregon.

The best 1-loss teams clearly are LSU and Oregon because they each have top quintile schedules (18 and 23, respectively) and they are just taking care of business with only a 3 overtime loss and a bizarre fumble through the endzone keep them from being undefeated.

Biggest Movers

The week’s biggest gainers:

1. Rutgers (+49) played West Virginia last week
2. Virginia Tech (+39) Boston College
3. Penn State (+35) Ohio State
4. Texas A&M (+34) Kansas
5. Northwestern (+31) Purdue
6. Fresno State (+30) Boise State
7. Georgia (+27) Florida
8. New Mexico State (+27) Hawaii
9. UTEP (+27) Houston
10. Arkansas State (+25) Troy

Biggest Fallers:

1. Navy (-56) Played Delaware (I-AA) last week
2. Louisiana Tech (-46) Utah State
3. BYU (-30) San Diego State
4. Arkansas (-27) FIU
5. Buffalo (-24) Akron
6. FSU (-23) Duke
7. MTSU (-23) North Texas
8. Rice (-23) Marshall
9. Missouri (-21) Iowa State
10. Utah (-21) Colorado State

SSOS by Conference

Total Average SSOS for all 119 Teams: 64.66

Best Schedule: Ole Miss, 3rd overall, score of 47.31

Worst Schedule: Arkansas, 108th, 74.44

Average SOS Rank: 37.83

Average SOS Score: 59.20

Best Schedule: Washington, 2nd overall, score of 41.88

Worst Schedule: USC, 110th, 75.41

Average SOS Rank: 40.20

Average SOS Score: 58.93

Best Schedule: Colorado, 3rd overall, score of 44.69

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 112nd, 76.66

Average SOS Rank: 47.67

Average SOS Score: 61.48

Best Schedule: Duke, 11th overall, score of 54.34

Worst Schedule: Boston College, 105th, 74.03

Average SOS Rank: 54.67

Average SOS Score: 63.99

Best Schedule: Illinois, 33rd overall, score of 60.83

Worst Schedule: Wisconsin, 85th, 69.19

Average SOS Rank: 55.91

Average SOS Score: 64.70

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 14th overall, score of 54.56

Worst Schedule: UConn, 109th, 74.63

Average SOS Rank: 56.63

Average SOS Score: 63.92

Everyone improved over last week. Even the teams at the bottom have better scores, even if their ranks didn’t improve much. The SEC and Pac 10 split the title this week, as the SEC had a better average rank, but the Pac 10 had a better average score. How’d that happen? Washington. The Huskies are a bit of an outlier with their 41.88 score. The entire list has no significant gaps except between the top 3 teams and #4, and between #117 and #118 Memphis, and then again between Memphis and #119 Hawaii. The conferences themselves have bunched up though, so the order could be volatile from here on out.

Ahhh…

It feels good to be in the win column again. It’s been a month since the Ole Miss game.

I project Florida to hit 11 in the AP, due to South Carolina, Kentucky, and Cal falling behind, and 12 in the BCS for the same reason. Even if LSU falls, the Tigers will probably still be ahead of us since the humans won’t vote UF ahead of a team it lost to. The only wildcard would be if the humans jump a victorious Auburn over UF, since Auburn won here in Gainesville, despite Florida’s two losses being better than Auburn’s two losses. It’s a classic poll paradox. We’ll find out in the late afternoon.

The Fall Guys

Some of the top teams in the country are showing the classic signs of being set up for a fall, and some don’t. I will now go over some of the teams and why they do or do not look ready to drop like rocks.

So far, Oregon has looked very good, and Dennis Dixon has been spectacular. The Ducks looked like they were just rolling along with a 53-7 win over Washington State, but if you didn’t see anything beyond the score, you’d never suspect anything was wrong.

However, WR Cameron Colvin (he of the fumble out the endzone in the Cal game) broke his ankle in the first half, and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. RB Jeremiah Johnson rushed for two TDs but then fell to a knee injury, and he is out for an uncertain amount of time. Neither is the top at his respective position for the Ducks; in fact, both are number two on the team behind Jonathan Stewart (leading rusher) and Jaison Williams (leading receiver). However, this situation will test Oregon’s depth and put a strain on Stewart especially, since Dixon is the Ducks’ third-leading rusher.

Losing two important skill players in a blowout isn’t just crushing from a personnel standpoint, it can be mentally challenging too. Oregon will probably be fine this week against Washington, but in two weeks they face a still-dangerous USC team, and if the Trojans can get their offensive issues worked out against Notre Dame this week, it could be serious bad news for Oregon. After that come Arizona State, Arizona (who is improving on offense every week), UCLA, and Oregon State. Going 4-2 the rest of the way is definitely possible and wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it probably would disappoint the Oregon fans who are expecting a lot at this point.

Arizona State has also been bit by the injury bug. Leading rusher Ryan Torain is gone for the season with a dislocated and/or broken big toe incurred in the game against Washington last Saturday. Torain had played in 6 of the Sun Devils’ 7 games and rushed for 553 yards on 110 carries. Keegan Herring takes over the starting role, but despite having played in all 7 games, he has just 480 yards on 73 carries. He’s not bad, but he’s clearly not as good as Torain.

While Arizona State has a bye this week to adjust, this injury still comes at a very bad time for the team. So far, ASU has played just two BCS schools with winning records - Colorado and Oregon State - and it took Oregon State a miracle win over Cal and its backup QB just to get back over .500 again. The schedule has been soft, but not anymore the rest of the season.

In two weeks, the Sun Devils get Cal and presumably a healthy Nate Longshore. After that is a trip to Oregon, a trip to UCLA (who is undefeated in Pac 10 play), and then USC and Arizona at home to end the year. It would not be out of the question to see Arizona State finish 3-2 or even 2-3 against that slate. Remember, this team only went 7-6 last year, and while Dennis Erickson is a step up from Dirk Koetter, it’s still roughly that same team.

It’s always bad karma to talk about your upcoming opponent as being ready for a fall since it tends to jinx your team, but whatever. Rich Brooks may have heaped an even bigger jinx on his team this week with his comments.

Specifically, it’s his comments about Andre Woodson deserving to be in the Heisman race. Usually once coaches and players start talking about individual awards, the player in question comes out and flops. Granted, Brooks was talking more in generalities about the award and whether mass mailings and other promotions (the “Joey Heisman” billboard comes to mind) are necessary, and he says no with as many people commenting on the Heisman every week out there and the ability of technology to let everyone see all the important highlights.

He still had these sound bites:

• “Andre Woodson is right at the first discussion in every Heisman ballot, and he should be. So we just have to keep going.”
• “Andre Woodson was not in the conversation when we started the year. He’s in every conversation now, as he deserves to be.”

That’s practically open campaigning for his guy, and that’s classic jinx territory. Hopefully I didn’t negate the jinx by pointing it out before the fact. You know, this is why I’m not superstitious; it’s too hard to keep everything straight. Still, don’t be surprised if Woodson lays an egg this weekend.

Ohio State has Michigan State, and it will be the first big test for the Buckeyes. Purdue is an impostor just like every year, so the Boilers don’t count. Michigan State has a much more impressive offense than you think - the Spartans have better offensive stats than Ohio State does across the board despite playing overall a tougher defensive schedule than OSU. Michigan State’s opponents collectively rank 68th and 75th in total and scoring defense; Ohio State’s opponents collectively rank 86th and 84th in total and scoring defense.

Still, Ohio State has nearly everyone back on defense from last year, and the offense hasn’t completely descended back into the cave where it resided for the first few years of Jim Tressel’s tenure there. It’s hard to say for sure how good OSU is since its schedule is so weak, but Ohio State has top-notch talent and a proven track record and coaching staff.

Out of the remaining games, who will beat Ohio State? Michigan State has a better offense, but a much weaker defense and is probably a couple years away from contending in the Big Ten. Do you think Anthony Morelli could beat the Buckeyes’ defense and hold onto the ball enough to win the game? Wisconsin is in a freefall, and won’t likely come within two touchdowns of Ohio State. Illinois won’t beat them since Ohio State can stop the run, and if you do that you stop Illinois. Finally, what has Michigan done this year that inspires any sort of confidence that it can pull off the game? Chad Henne is still the quarterback, and Lloyd Carr is still the coach. It wouldn’t be a shock, but I would be surprised if Ohio State lost a game the rest of the way.

Rutgers is a trendy pick this week to upset USF. I think part of that is that a lot of the media folks who didn’t pick the Bulls to do this well are looking for any opportunity to see them fall back down. The two most common reasons I’ve heard for USF losing is the weather in New Jersey and Ray Rice.

First, the weather. The game is at 7:30 pm, and the forecast is a high of 70 and a low of 49. The chance of rain is just 10% and the wind at night will be at 8 mph. In other words, it’s going to be classic football weather. It will start in the low to mid 60s and end in the low to mid 50s. That’s really not that cold, and I can tell you as a Florida native that we get that kind weather from November through March or April, so it’s not like all the Florida boys on USF will be freezing. As I said, it’ll be classic football weather, and it won’t play a factor in the game.

Second, Ray Rice isn’t going to be anything the Bulls haven’t already seen this year. They just played against Kevin Smith of UCF, formerly the leading rusher in Div. I-A, and held him to 56 yards. Mike Teel is a better quarterback than UCF’s Kyle Israel is, but Rutgers has yet to play a defense like what USF has, and the Scarlet Knights already have two losses. USF may have a loss or two coming, but I don’t think this week is the week.

Some Kentucky Talk

It’s been over a week since I did a post directed solely about the Gators, and that’s too long.

The opponent of this week is Kentucky, whose position in the polls has been more up and down than the Reitz Union elevator. The Cats started unranked, jumped into the polls at 21 after beating Louisville, jumped up to 14 after beating Arkansas, got as high as 8 before losing to South Carolina knocked them down to 17, but defeating LSU got them back up to 8.

By reasonable standards, Kentucky has played three games against decent or better opponents: Louisville, South Carolina, and LSU. You can argue Arkansas if you want, but the Pigs have no defense at all this year. Kentucky had the advantage of facing Louisville and LSU at home, and it won those games; Kentucky had to travel to South Carolina and lost. Clearly, Kentucky is a better team at home, as most teams are.

Well, if you look at it, Kentucky executed two exciting and memorable escapes to beat Louisville and LSU. If Louisville had any secondary at all, UK probably doesn’t win that game. If Matt Flynn played a decent game at all, LSU probably wins that game in regulation. Kentucky’s success is built on what ifs.

Now, some are saying that Kentucky has a physical defense this year. The Wildcats defense is certainly improved, clocking in at 60th and 64th in total and scoring defense. But is it a balanced defense? Stats say no - Kentucky is 27th in pass defense but 99th in run defense. That means the rushing attack that Florida abandoned in the second half against LSU is the very ticket to success on Saturday.

You can believe that Urban Meyer and his staff have figured this out. We should see a steady diet of Kestahn Moore, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Jarred Fayson carrying the ball with just enough passing to keep Kentucky honest and prevent it from just stacking the box. Rich Brooks has done a lot to improve that defense, but there’s only so much you can do in one year. For Florida to win, rushing is the way to go.

This Week’s SSOS

This week’s Statistical Strength of Schedule is brought to you by the letters U, F, T, um… T again, and the number 15.

I’ve got the new SSOS figures calculated for this week, and the BCS conference teams are definitely benefiting from more conference play. At least those who played conference games did. Overall conference numbers were better across the board. Now, I’ll go over the top 25, and look at who were the biggest risers and fallers.

As with last week, the SSOS score is taken by averaging all of each team’s opponent’s total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense ranks, then averaging those together to come out with a final SSOS score. The top 25:

1. Notre Dame, 35.21 points, no change in rank from last week
2. Washington, 37.71, +1
3. Stanford, 43.88, -1
4. Florida Int’l, 46.50, +2
5. Auburn, 46.68, NC
6. Tennessee, 49.08, +2
7. Syracuse, 49.18, +12
8. East Carolina, 51.96, -1
9. Utah State, 52.17, +12
10. Oregon State, 52.18, +13
11. Colorado, 52.50, +4
12. Nebraska, 52.68, -3
13. Washington State, 52.79, +1
14. Mississippi, 53.29, -4
15. UNLV, 54.64, +13
16. Arizona, 54.86, +11
17. Duke, 55.00, +3
18. BYU, 55.21, -7
19. Colorado State, 56.17, +3
20. SMU, 56.67, +20
21. LSU, 56.75, +20
22. Akron, 57.00, -18
23. Kansas State, 57.46, +3
24. Marshall, 57.54, -11
25. Wyoming, 57.96, +37

You can see the full list here: 10-13-07.pdf

Note: The Nevada - Boise State game from Sunday is not included as the official NCAA stats only include the games through Saturday, October 13.

Average SSOS by Losses

Again, we see that the undefeated teams have played by far the easiest schedules. USF is in the third quartile at 56, but every other unbeaten team is in the triple digits of easiest schedule: Ohio State is at 107, Arizona State is at 109, BC is at 113, Kansas is at 116, and Hawaii is dead last at 119. The gap between no losses and one loss has opened up from almost 7 points to almost 12 points.

Also, we see the 2-loss teams with a trend-breakingly difficult schedule average, but it’s for the same reason as last week: an unusual number of teams from BCS leagues find themselves sitting on two losses. Auburn, Tennessee, and Kansas State are all 2-losss teams in the top quintile of SOS, and six other 2-loss teams from BCS leagues are in the second quintile. Other than that, it’s a nicely downward-curved line showing that the more losses a team has, generally the more difficult a schedule they’ve played. I’d be interested to see if there’s another SOS measure that shows such a nice relationship as this one does. That very neat inverted parabola shape inspires confidence in me that this is an accurate method of looking at SOS.

Biggest Movers

This week’s top gainers:

1. Wyoming, +37 in the standings, its opponent last week was New Mexico
2. Nevada, +35, Fresno State
3. Baylor, +34, Kansas
4. North Carolina, +33, South Carolina
5. San Jose State, +33, Hawaii
6. Wisconsin, +33, Penn State
7. Missouri, +31, Oklahoma
8. UCF, +27, USF
9. FAU, +26, Bye
10. Michigan, +26, Purdue
11. Oklahoma, +26, Missouri

Oklahoma and Missouri perfectly illustrate what can happen when two good teams play each other: they both dramatically improve each other’s SOS score. LSU and Kentucky did the same for each other, each moving up 20 and 15 spots respectively, only to a lesser degree since LSU and Kentucky both had played tougher schedules than OU and Mizzou.

This weeks biggest losers:

1. North Texas, -42 spots in the standings, its opponent last week was UL-Monroe
2. UTEP, -39, East Carolina
3. Temple, -34, Akron
4. Tulane, -33, UAB
5. TCU, -29, Stanford
6. Rutgers, -29, Syracuse
7. Western Michigan, -25, Northern Illinois
8. Miami (Ohio), -22, Bowling Green
9. Toledo, -21, Buffalo
10. Houston, -21, Rice

Remember kids, playing a U-L U-Pick ‘em team can be disastrous to your strength of schedule. Arkansas State played the other half, UL-Lafayette, and fell 11 spots to 97th, but with a schedule already in the 80s, Ark State only had so much room to fall.

SOS by Conference

Total Average SOS for all 119 Teams: 65.54

Best Schedule: Washington, 2^nd overall, score of 37.71

Worst Schedule: USC, 111^th,80.04

Average SOS Rank: 32.00

Average SOS Score: 58.64

Best Schedule: Auburn, 5^th overall, score of 46.68

Worst Schedule: Vanderbilt, 95, 60.51

Average SOS Rank: 39.92

Average SOS Score: 60.51

Best Schedule: Colorado, 11^th overall, score of 52.50

Worst Schedule: Kansas, 116^th, 84.21

Average SOS Rank: 48.91

Average SOS Score: 65.04

Best Schedule: Duke, 17^th overall, score of 55.00

Worst Schedule: Boston College, 113th, 80.21

Average SOS Rank: 53.73

Average SOS Score: 65.95

Best Schedule: Minnesota, 26^th overall, score of 57.96

Worst Schedule: Ohio State, 107, 77.29

Average SOS Rank: 61.80

Average SOS Score: 67.18

Best Schedule: Syracuse, 7^th overall, score of 49.18

Worst Schedule: UConn, 118^th, 86.83

Average SOS Rank: 74.71

Average SOS Score: 70.71

The Big 12 overtook the ACC for third place among the conferences, and the Pac 10 opened up a slightly larger lead over the SEC. Still, the Pac 10 and SEC are leaving everyone else behind in terms of SOS. These two conferences should remain in the lead since the teams in them will be playing each other the rest of the year and they are clearly the two best conferences in America.

Most Important Thing: Never trust a won/loss record; look inside it to see if its foundation is rock or sand, and then, and only then, create a poll. There is absolutely no reason for Ohio State to be ranked #1.

Poll Watching

If you vote on performance on the field, then you have to have South Florida #1. Of the unbeaten teams, no one has better wins than USF does. If you vote on quality wins, then LSU should still be #1 because no one has better wins than the Tigers do. You can’t make a reasonable case for BC or Arizona State #1 since they don’t have the best resume of the unbeatens (USF does) and doesn’t have the best, most proven coaching staff (Ohio State does). You can’t vote Oklahoma #1 because LSU has the best resume of the once-beatens.

I bring this up because the AP poll actually releases votes week-to-week, and we actually get to know who voted what. There actually was one nutjob who voted Arizona State in the top spot and that was… Neal McCready from Mobile, Alabama. Huh? The guy who voted BC #1? Tommy Trujillo from The New Mexican. The one person who left LSU #1? Jon Wilner from San Jose, California. The person who voted Oklahoma #1? Adam Van Brimmer from Savannah, Georgia. At least these aren’t homer votes.

South Florida did pick up 11 first place votes, and they came from Louisiana,  Washington, D.C., Raleigh, Greensboro, Nashville, El Paso, Austin, Provo, Los Angeles, and two national guys (Stewart Mandel of SI.com and Tom Hart of CSTV). But wait - what about Brian Landman, from the St. Pete Times? Surely he’d have USF #1, right? Nope, in fact he has them #3 behind Ohio State and Oklahoma.

Fortunately, we no longer have to worry about the AP Poll since the BCS poll is now out. Unfortunately, that means the Coaches’ Poll now does matter, and I shouldn’t have to tell you why it’s a joke. Anyway, there are a few significant discrepancies between the humans and the computers.

The biggest discrepancy is USC - the humans have the Trojans a consensus 9, but the computers have them #23.  The next biggest is Hawaii, who is 16th in the human polls, but 25th among the computers, and only 2 of the 5 computer polls have Hawaii in the top 25. After that, it’s Oklahoma, a consensus #4 in the human polls, but #11 in the computer polls.

I think that computer polls are a nice tiebreaker since they don’t factor in things like track record, tradition, coaching, emotions, and other confounding factors in the human polls. They don’t care that USF has been playing football for a decade; they just look at the games as they have been played. However, since they can be heavily biased based on what factors go into them, so it’s best to use several of them averaged together like the BCS does.

To that end, there is a site that puts together every known computer poll from a reputable source (66 in all) then adds the AP, Coaches’, Harris, and Master Coaches Survey polls to come out with one huge master poll. The top 25 of that poll are as follows:

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. USF
4. Arizona State
5. Oregon
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. West Virginia
9. BC
10. Kansas
11. Kentucky
12. Florida
13. Cal
14. Missouri
15. Auburn
16. Virginia Tech
17. Cincinnati
18. Kansas State
19. Tennessee
20. USC
21. Georgia
22. Illinois
23. Texas Tech
24. Virginia
25. UConn

Notables: Hawaii (31), FSU (29), Miami (58), Notre Dame (84)

SSOS Power Poll

Rather than do a normal poll this week, I decided to do a power poll based on the figures I used for my Statistical Strength of Schedule study from yesterday. I took the four basic measures of a team - total and scoring offense and defense - and averaged that with the SSOS score. It evenly balances what you do with who your foes are. Since it goes by relative rank versus the other I-A teams, the scoring is like golf where the lower the score, the better. This is how the top 25 ended up:

1. LSU, 37.85 points
2. Oklahoma, 37.88
3. Rutgers, 42.90
4. Florida, 44.75
5. West Virginia, 44.98
6. Kansas, 45.13
7. Auburn, 45.21
8. BYU, 45.38
9. Boise State, 45.93
10. Kansas State, 46.90
11. Arizona State, 47.19
12. Texas, 47.29
13. Oregon, 47.48
14. Cincinnati, 47.56
15. Ohio State, 49.08
16. Kentucky, 49.19
17. USC, 49.68
18. Penn State, 49.75
19. New Mexico, 49.96
20. Colorado, 50.44
21. Alabama, 50.69
22. Arkansas, 50.70
23. Boston College, 51.02
24. Oregon State, 51.73
25. Georgia Tech, 52.19

Notables: South Carolina (26), USF (28), Cal (30), Missouri (34), UConn (40), Hawaii (47)

The full, color-coded listing for all 119 teams is here: power-poll.pdf

What we see here is that stats alone don’t predict success on the football field. I think everyone probably knew that, although who knows what will happen as the season rolls along. I may have just picked a very fluky year to be doing this kind of work.

If you think that either the team’s performance or the schedule should count for more, then click the read more link and find out what happens when one is weighted over the other.