Breaking Down Florida’s Triple Option

One play that has become a staple of the Gators’ offensive attack this season is a modified triple option. I’m going try to break it down in simple enough terms for anyone to understand what’s going on, so if you’re a seasoned EA NCAA Football pro, just be patient.

The triple option is named as such because there are three possibilities and the quarterback must choose which one to do based on the defense. He has options, in other words.

Traditionally, the three options are a hand off to the fullback, a hand off to the tailback, or the quarterback running it himself. Here is a diagram of the traditional triple option from the I-formation, so named because the quarterback, fullback, and tailback make the form on a capital I:

The quarterback receives the snap from under center and begins moving backwards. He motions like he is going to hand it off to the fullback, and makes the first decision. If the defensive tackles in the middle start moving to the left to contain the play, he will continue and actually give the ball to the fullback for a run up the middle. If the DTs stay in the middle, he will pull the ball back from the fullback, keep it, and continue running to his left.

Now, a second decision must be made. The defensive end on the left will not be blocked by the left tackle in order to have an advantage farther up the field. If that DE attempts to go after the quarterback, the QB will pitch the ball out to the tailback who will be behind and to the left of him. If the DE anticipates a pitch and goes after the tailback, the quarterback will keep in and run with it.

This play can be run from a variety of different setups for the fullback and running back, and it can be done to the right or the left. Those different formations along with the wide variety of blocking techniques means that you can create a fairly complex offensive scheme off the basic principle setup described above.

It used to be quite popular in college football. Not many teams use it anymore because it requires a lot of practice to get it right and because the quarterback tends to take hits from defenders on the play. It has enjoyed a renaissance in recent years thanks to guys like Urban Meyer, Rich Rodriguez, and Paul Johnson.

Florida’s Modified Triple Option

With the way the Gators run it, they use a running back and a wide receiver instead of a fullback and running back. In addition, the quarterback is in shotgun instead of being under center. Here is Florida using it against Vanderbilt with the setup before the snap.

This is basically a 10-on-10 play as WR Riley Cooper (at the bottom) will take himself and the cornerback on him out of the play. Louis Murphy at the top will run down field as a decoy and deep blocker. The key players here are QB Tim Tebow, RB Chris Rainey, WR Percy Harvin, and TE Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is at the left edge of the offensive line.

Vanderbilt’s safety recognizes the formation as a running play, so he moves up and becomes a de facto fourth linebacker on the play. Just before the ball is snapped, Harvin goes in motion and runs behind Tebow and Rainey. He is playing the role of the tailback as pictured above. Rainey, all 5′9″ of him, actually has the fullback role.

Hernandez’s job is to go out and block the safety. The defensive end on the left will not be blocked. That leaves five offensive linemen to block the three other defensive linemen, so two (LT Phil Trautwein and RG Mike Pouncey) will ignore them and go farther up the field to take on linebackers. Here is a shot shortly after the snap.

Harvin has run around back as you can see. Tebow sees the defensive end is coming to the middle to stop Rainey, so he choses to keep the ball instead of handing it off. Hernandez had to run around the DE to go after the safety, so he actually will arrive too late to properly get the block.

Vanderbilt did its homework and was ready for this one, with the safety assigned to the quarterback. The key was moving him up before the play; had he been back at the normal distance, he would have been easily blocked. The outside linebacker (to the left of Hernandez) is assigned to Harvin. Lets go forward a few frames.

As I said, the safety cuts in before Hernandez can get to him and the linebacker is covering Harvin. Recognizing that a pitch to Harvin would be a big loss, Tebow decides to keep it.

Unfortunately for the safety, the quarterback is pretty nimble for being a big dude. Tebow will do a spin move as the safety goes flying by, negating Vanderbilt’s proper defense of the play. He then runs down field between a couple blocks and gets nine yards after lunging at the end.

You’ll note that there are three white jerseys beyond the original line of scrimmage, not just the two guys I singled out above. C Maurkice Pouncey did the same thing his twin brother Mike (#55 in the picture above) did in that he let someone by to block in the second level.

The result is the guy he would have been blocking got right to Rainey as he hit the line. Either Rainey was really a decoy all along, or Maurkice got confused on his blocking assignment. It appears the latter might be the case because as you can see, he’s going right after the linebacker that Trautwein is already blocking and he looks somewhat confused if you watch him.

Here is the whole play at full speed. I would recommend going to the actual YouTube page and clicking “Watch in high quality” because it’s a lot clearer.

The Other Way, Please

Let’s take another look at the same formation, but this time oriented to the right instead of the left.

The formation is the same only reversed. Deonte Thompson is the receiver at the top in the Riley Cooper role of taking himself and his covering cornerback out of the play. Kestahn Moore is the running back instead of Rainey, and Harvin is still the receiver in motion. Carl Moore is the receiver at the bottom in Louis Murphy’s stead, and his blocking assignment is the cornerback, #17.

Aaron Hernandez has switched over to the right side of the line since the play is going to that direction. Our friend the safety has already moved up here, and he is still Hernandez’s blocking assignment.

What is interesting is the offensive line assignments are the same as they were when the play went to the left. The defensive end to the offense’s left is still going to be the one unblocked instead of the one on the side where the play is. Trautwein and Mike Pouncey are still the guys who are going upfield to block. Maurkice Pouncey this time comes around behind Mike to get block the right defensive tackle while LG Carl Johnson must block the left defensive tackle.

Moore is absolutely a decoy this time, and he immediately runs out to the right with no fake handoff to him. Therefore, there’s only one decision to make now. This is no triple option play, it is an option right disguised as a triple option in its formation and pre-snap motion.

If the linebacker goes for either Moore or Harvin, Tebow will keep it. If he breaks off and goes for the quarterback, then Tebow will pitch it to Harvin. The linebacker ends up taking an in between position, sort of covering Harvin as he stands in front of Moore. Tebow decides to keep it.

Since Hernandez doesn’t have to run a circular path around the defensive end this time, he gets to the safety quickly and takes out his legs. You can see Hernandez’s legs on the ground beneath the safety (#33). The #30 in black you see there is the middle linebacker, and he is Mike Pouncey’s man.

The unblocked defensive end (#90) is now in a footrace to try to beat Tebow to the hole between Maurkice Pouncey and other defensive end being blocked by RT Jason Watkins (#77). Tebow wins that race, so from here it’s a matter of downfield blocking.

Tebow is approaching the hole having beat the DE to it. Because Maurkice Pouncey pancaked his man though, Johnson is unable to slide over to block the defensive tackle. Watkins is moving the hole to the right, giving Tebow the chance to beat the DT to the hole if he’s fast enough.

The linebacker who couldn’t decide on whether to go for Harvin or Moore locked up and Moore is running past him to go block up the field. Harvin has run to the sideline completely out of the play as his job is done.

The safety and middle linebacker have actually collided, causing both to fall down. That frees Mike Pouncey to run past both of them and try to pick up additional defenders up the field.

Tebow had the wheels to narrowly beat the defensive tackle to the hole, so all that’s left now is to hold the downfield blocks long enough to get him to the end zone.

Mike Pouncey (not pictured) did his job, picking up the other safety who did not fall down. Otherwise, Tebow would have been tackled at about the 15 yard line. Left tackle Phil Trautwein is still blocking his linebacker (#6), who at this point has given up on being able to get to Tebow. Thompson (#6) has forced his cornerback to be off balance, so #14 is no threat.

Remember cornerback #17 from the beginning? He has returned and is threatening to take Tebow down before the goal line. Carl Moore either did not finish his block or he was unable to hold it, and that’s him (#16) jogging into view at the bottom right.

Tebow takes an angled path towards the front corner of the endzone, and the angle is enough as the cornerback cannot get a good enough grip on the speeding Tebow to bring him down. Touchdown, 14-0 Florida.

Here is a look at the full play. As with the last one, I recommend going to the YouTube page and clicking “Watch in high quality.”

Conclusion

I hope you now have an understanding of both the principle behind the triple option and the way that Florida has used it this season. I also hope the second example gives you a glimpse of the complexity that option offenses can present even though on the surface, it’s just the quarterback running and deciding whether or not to keep it or give it.

It is for that reason that we’re unlikely to ever see the option die in the college ranks. Tebow is faster than any of the Vanderbilt defensive linemen, so he was able to exploit that in both of these examples. There are other, faster quarterbacks out there who do this too, and there will be plenty more to come.

Vanderbilt Reserves Shut Out Florida Reserves 14-0

In what is assuredly a big upset, Vanderbilt’s backup players were able to shut out Florida’s backup players 14-0 on a chilly night in Nashville, Tennessee. QB Chris Nickson, filling in for injured starter Mackenzi Adams, led the way for the Commodores’ reserves with two touchdown passes and 39 rushing yards on 10 attempts.

“We just decided to throw them out there and see what happened,” explained Vanderbilt head coach Bobby Johnson. “They did a heck of a job against a group of players that had some guys who could probably start for us.”

The two schools’ starters played a little more than a half of football, resulting in a resounding 42-0 win for Florida. It could have been 49-0 as a controversial review of a goal line plunge by Florida WR Percy Harvin appeared to show him breaking the plane of the end zone before the ground caused him to fumble, but replay officials determined it to be a lost fumble and Vanderbilt possession.

Florida starting QB Tim Tebow exerted his will in a manner reminiscent of his Heisman-winning 2007 campaign, accounting for five touchdowns and leading the team with 88 rushing yards. He easily could have had seven touchdowns if he had been used in goal line scenarios as normal, but the Florida offensive staff chose to use Harvin instead. The win catapulted the Gators into the SEC Championship Game for the second time in head coach Urban Meyer’s four seasons.

Still, the Florida head coach did not seem pleased after the contest between the reserve players.

“I was real disappointed by their play out there,” said Meyer. “They did not play Florida football, and that’s why we got shut out. The twos and threes have a lot to think about going into this week’s practice.”

Despite the disappointment in the way the Gators fared in garbage time, the segment with the starters provided many positives. The Gators blocked two punts to once again give the offense several short field situations to work with. The defense got three-and-outs on the Commodores’ first three possessions, and it picked up a turnover with S Ahmad Black’s fifth interception of the season.

The shutout was a disappointment for the Florida backups, however, after scoring in each of Florida’s past three games. The 14 points allowed were also the most given up by the backups this season, surpassing the previous high of 10 allowed against Hawai’i. The main consolation for them is that Nickson has been a starter on and off throughout his career.

The overall Florida team remains on course to play for the national championship if it wins out from here.

Florida-Vanderbilt Preview

Trap Game?

This game for Florida has a lot of the hallmarks of a trap game.

First of all, it is a Vanderbilt game in Nashville. When the Gators won the national championship in 2006, UF only won in Nashville 25-19. When they won the national championship in 1996, they only won in Nashville 28-21. Ron Zook’s first squad in 2002 won only 21-17, and his 2004 team trailed at halftime.

I was at the 2004 game, and it’s easy to see why it can be a difficult site for a visiting team to get up for a game. The stadium is tiny by SEC standards, there were some empty seats, and it seemed like half of the filled seats were occupied by visiting fans. It was the least threatening road game I’ve ever attended.

Things have changed for the better of course, as anyone who saw Auburn’s trip to Nashville earlier this season could tell you. It will also be a night game tomorrow, which will amp things up even more.

It will be cold though, with an overnight low of 43 degrees, and Florida generally only plays one game a year at most in that kind of weather. It does get that cold in Gainesville regularly from late November on, so it’s not a huge deal, but it’s one more thing to think about.

Throw in the fact that Florida just won the game it’s been focusing on for the entire last year by 39 points plus the fact they can lose and probably still win the division, and you’ve got a recipe for a letdown. After all, the Ole Miss loss came directly after defeating their rival Tennessee handily.

What’s In It For Vandy

Not a lot of people probably remember or have looked it up, but thanks to one of Vandy’s losses being to Duke, the Commodores can force a three-way tie atop the SEC East with Florida and Georgia with a win on Saturday. They won’t win any three-way tiebreakers, but they can cause some chaos and pick up the win they probably should have gotten in 2005.

Not only that, but Vanderbilt would become bowl eligible for the first time since 1982 with a win. They’ve been close a couple times over the past few years, but haven’t quite gotten there. Nothing could be more emphatic than getting that sixth win by defeating a team that many are already starting to pencil into the national title game.

A win would also complete the trifecta of beating top-three teams from the division, since they defeated Tennessee in 2005 and Georgia in 2006.

Could Vanderbilt Win?

Well, it you want to play the football chain game, Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss who beat Florida. That logic is reprehensible and doesn’t hold up to any scrutiny, but it serves a purpose here. I would say Ole Miss is a little better than Vanderbilt is, but they are in the same ballpark and UF obviously has lost to someone from that ballpark.

If Florida comes out flat, gives up big plays on defense, gets a bad game from Tim Tebow, and turns the ball over a lot, then they could lose. If that sounds unlikely to all happen in the same game, consider that it has already happened this season on September 27th.

If it sounds to you like I’m not giving Vanderbilt the chance to force the issue and take this game, then you’re right. That’s exactly what I’m saying. If Florida and Vanderbilt both play their A-games, the Gators will win by a couple scores after it being uncomfortably close all game. In other words, it will be a standard Florida-Vanderbilt game.

Vandy simply does not have the playmakers to keep up with a healthy, focused, and prepared Florida team. If they get a lackadaisical Florida team that thinks it can win simply by showing up and wearing orange helmets, then the Commodores can win. I give them a much better shot than I did Kentucky because the Wildcats were simply too ravaged by injury to win in any reasonable scenario.

It’s a road game. It’s a night game. It’s in the SEC. Nothing is guaranteed, but if the Gators live up to Tebow’s promise that he made after the Ole Miss game, then Florida will cruise to victory.

SEC Power Poll Roundtable #2

This round is hosted by Georgia blog Hey Jenny Slater. The compiled roundtable will come sometime next week.

1. What’s your prediction for the matchup in the SEC championship game, and has that changed at all from what you were predicting in the preseason?

Sorry Commodores, but I see the winner of the Florida-Georgia game winning the East even if both lose another conference game. I also see the winner of the LSU-Alabama game winning the West. Today I’d give those games to Florida and ‘Bama, though I could easily see any combination of those plausibly in the game.

My preseason pick was Florida-LSU, so it hasn’t changed a whole lot. It all depends on which Alabama team shows up to play the Tigers.

2. Knowing what you now know about your team, how have your expectations for this season changed? What would constitute a successful season in your eyes, and what would be a disappointment?

The offense has not been at the level I expected it to be at, but I think my expectations were probably a bit high. I discounted the fact that the offense would be changing, and the offensive line has not been near what I expected it to be. I figured with three redshirt seniors and the Pouncey brothers it would be nearly impenetrable, but that has not been the case. Trautwein has been rusty after being out injured last year, Tartt has been injured on and off, Watkins has been inconsistent, and the Pounceys have taken some time to get used to new positions.

There is an elite team under the perceived issues and fans’ pessimism, and I think we might see it yet. I said before the year that since the schedule is easier than last season’s and the team would be better, the expectations begin at 10-2, a game better than 2007’s 9-3 regular season record.

If they go at least 1-1 against LSU and Georgia, they can still meet that expectation with relative ease. The catch is making sure whatever team happened to wear the orange and blue against Ole Miss never surfaces again.

3. If your team has Vanderbilt coming up at some point on its schedule, are you worried? If not, which team should be the most worried?

I personally am not because I cannot imagine the Gators losing to Vandy. The Commodores could have easily won a couple years ago if not for some calls favorable to Florida, but that just adds to it. I probably shouldn’t say things like this considering Auburn lost to them for the first time since the 1950s, but I’m just being honest here.

Florida should be worried since the Vandy winning formula so far is similar to what the Rebels used to win a couple weeks ago. Even so, Vanderbilt has a history of collapsing after hot starts, and the Gators get VU at the end of the season.

4. Other than perhaps Alabama’s season-opening win over Clemson, the SEC doesn’t really have any marquee non-conference wins thus far, and a couple of traditional powers (Auburn and Tennessee) are struggling in high-profile fashion. Is it too early to call this a “down year” for the conference?

I felt like the conference would experience a down cycle before the season began, so no, it’s not too early. Everyone except Florida, Georgia, and Alabama have had to deal with either big changes on offense or general ineffectiveness issues, and then the Gators and Bulldogs go and have lots of injuries.

The defenses around the league have been good overall, though it’s difficult at this point to truly be able to determine the precise good defense/bad offense ratio.

I have tried to phase out battling in the Conference Wars over the last year, since it’s about as useful and fun as banging my head against a wall, but I would give the Big 12 the edge of the SEC for 2008. There’s no shame in that considering how many amazing things are going on out there. It’s just a down year, and everyone gets them from time to time. At least the SEC is not owned by a mid-major, like with the Pac-10/MWC dynamic, and it’s comfortably ahead of the Big Ten, ACC, and Big East.

Vanderbilt, Auburn Headed in Different Directions

I’m not sure if I’m ready to live in a world where Florida is on the cusp on being in the top 10 and Vandy is still just two spots back of them.

Yes, Vanderbilt is off to its best start since 1943, and a win in Starkville this weekend means their best start since 1928. Of course, that was back when Vandy did things like beat Alabama in Birmingham (1927), defeat Texas in Dallas (1928) and blowout Auburn 41-2 (1929). Though they struggled some in the 1940s and 1950s, they didn’t become a perpetual doormat until the 1960s.

It sure looks like I was right to put Vandy on bowl watch after all. They should be able to pick up at least one win among games against Mississippi State, Duke, Kentucky, and yes, Tennessee. None of those teams looks better than any of the five Vandy has defeated so far. Of course they’ve played Florida and Georgia close in recent years, and if Wake Forest is capable of losing to Navy, the Deacs can lose to Vandy.

I would expect 7-9 wins on the season from them. Eventually, they will run into a game where the ball doesn’t bounce their way all of the second half, and two or three of the remaining opponents are just plain better teams. The floor on that range is if Vanderbilt remembers it’s Vanderbilt, and the ceiling is if the dream continues.

Meanwhile, Auburn fans are seriously melting down over Tony Franklin. Even though they aren’t actually running the Tony Franklin system.

On the drives that ended in scores, Auburn basically Tuberballed down the field until the red zone, and then spread things out to get open receivers near the goal line. That worked remarkably well. Vandy caught on to this, however, and started taking away the power running game. Neither Chris Todd nor Kodi Burns could make the Commodores pay.

The actual problems Auburn is having are not any different than the ones they had with Brandon Cox, it’s just that Cox was a better quarterback than Todd and Burns are. Drop in a better passer, and many problems go away. In that sense, the offensive mess is as much Tuberville’s fault for not recruiting a better quarterback as it is Franklin’s fault for trying to shake things up a bit with new formations.

The Tigers seriously need to pick an identity and stick with it, because this is two weeks in a row they’re promising big changes. You can’t just keep making big changes every week because that will only ensure they never find the rhythm they’re looking for. The defense can’t bail the offense out every week.

SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 2

1. Georgia

I have a few quibbles about their performance, but really they’re nothing more than nitpicks. CMU got more pressure than I thought it would, which happens to be “any at all,” and the defense lost focus early in the second half. This game would have been closer for longer if Dan LeFevour actually ran the ball before the final drive of the second quarter.

They played like they should have played and won like they should have won.

2. LSU

Will Hurricane Ike let them play next week? It’s looking better now than it did Sunday when I originally drew up these rankings and comments.

3. Florida

The 26-3 final score doesn’t give a fully accurate impression of the game. The UF offensive staff got outcoached, but fortunately the Miami offensive staff did too. The Gator defense looked really good against a vanilla Miami attack, but they didn’t look as dominating as the stats make them out to be.

4. Auburn

They started strong and kind of let off the gas a bit, but the passing game had a pulse and the defense and running were still there. Without some uncharacteristic fumbles, Auburn’s margin of victory would have been much greater.

5. Alabama

Welcome back down to earth, and how. Without some great special teams plays, the Tide might have only won this one 7-6.

6. Ole Miss

Jevan Snead is Matt Jones, Jr. and Ole Miss would qualify as about the third best team in the ACC. They battled the whole game and easily could have won. This one portends good things in Oxford.

7. Tennessee

They better show something against UAB. And by that I mean the Blazers better not be anywhere near contention in the fourth quarter.

8. Vanderbilt

This year’s Mississippi State? A definite maybe on that for now.

9. South Carolina

They had their chances, but the offense stunk without McKinley. Then again, it wasn’t exactly putting up fireworks with him. They didn’t play like they wanted it as badly as Vandy did, and the defense fell apart to a degree in the second half.

I never thought I’d see Spurrier lose twice to Vandy, much less twice in a row.

10. Kentucky

Maybe Cobb is the answer at quarterback, but how much can you really learn against a I-AA team?

11. Mississippi State

You beat SELA. Congratulations.

12. Arkansas

Another close call against a bad team. They will be fortunate to win more than one conference game.

Vanderbilt Bowl Watch?

With Vandy now sitting at 2-0, it’s worth a minute to look at the Commodores’ schedule to see if they have a shot to break their 25-year streak of not having a winning season and actually become bowl eligible.

Rice on 9/13, Mississippi State on 10/11, Duke on 10/25, and Kentucky on 11/15 appear to be the most winnable games from here on out. Ole Miss on 9/20 and Tennessee on 11/22 aren’t completely out of the question depending on how good Nutt’s Rebels turn out to be and whether the Vols play like they did against UCLA all season. I mean, Vandy did only lose to Georgia by three and Tennessee by one a season ago.

One of the biggest problems in Nashville has been a lack of confidence. They just have that feeling like, “OK, what’s going to happen this time?” Reports from the game indicate though that the Commodores expected to win this one, and they certainly played like it.

It’s important not to get too carried away by one game. South Carolina played much of the game without its best playmaker, Kenny McKinley. However, instead of going all conservative with a second half lead, Bobby Johnson kept pressuring the Gamecocks to extend his lead from 17-10 to 24-10. That is something new and different that hasn’t always happened.

There was no fourth quarter meltdown. There was no critical special teams breakdown. Maybe a bowl could happen after all.

SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 1

It is extremely difficult to parse the differences in the ways that elite teams blowout overmatched opponents, especially for me since I really only got to see the South Carolina-NC State and Florida-Hawai’i games all the way through. I only saw pieces of other games, if any at all.

Don’t be offended if you don’t like where your team is at. The margin between the top teams is razor thin, and until everyone starts playing real opponents, we’re all guessing anyway. Relax, it’s only Week 1; there are 13 more weeks of regular season to go.

These rankings are based heavily on the games played this past weekend. As time goes by, they will change based on how the teams’ résumés change.

Florida – The Gators are my top team as much as anything because I got to see them in person this weekend and no one else. Still, they answered fairly definitively two major questions. Yes, they have running backs, and yes, the defense is a lot better. The D-line was in the backfield all day and the secondary made fundamentally sound tackles for the first time since 2006.

It’s important not to overreact to one single game, but Florida showed enough to make me conclude that at their peak, they’re the best in the conference.

LSU – The quarterbacks were not electrifying, but the rest of the Tiger team showed that those signal callers will not have to be great. Despite a last-minute kickoff time change and a hurricane bearing down, Les Miles had his team focused enough to blowout a normally game opponent. I have few worries about this team for the rest of the season right now.

Georgia – The Bulldogs dismissed their lesser opponent with less authority than the above two did, so they end up third. Honestly, it’s tough to tell teams apart based on beating up patsies. As much as anything, they ended up third because they lost yet another player for the year to injury in DT Jeff Owens. Sure UGA has a lot of depth on the defensive line, but it is negative momentum.

Alabama – As I said earlier, it’s important not to overact based on one game. However, I did see some of the Alabama-Clemson game and Bama controlled the trenches on both sides with startling ease. The Tide just plain wanted it more, and they made a statement with their play. Then again, beating up on a Tommy Bowden team that has high expectations is hardly a stunning achievement.

Auburn – The defense and running game will have to carry this team until the passing game gets sorted out, but it appears for now that they’ll be able to do it. That’s fine in the short term, but Kodi Burns, the best runner of the two QBs, still can’t pass and that’s a problem. Defense and running the ball suit Tommy Tuberville just fine though, so it’s a little early to worry. Eight-man fronts in the SEC could pose a problem.

South Carolina – Thanks to them playing on Thursday, I got to see most of the Gamecocks’ opening game. The defense appears legit again, with Jasper Brinkley making a huge difference. The offense was putrid until Chris Smelley came in, but he also got to play against a demoralized defense after the game was already decided. This team is far from perfect, but Smelley showed at least there’s some hope for finishing above fourth in the SEC East.

Tennessee – I’ll be honest, I haven’t had time to really look at the Vols’ performance against UCLA. I had a late flight into Charlotte and got a flat tire on the way home. It doesn’t look all that great at first glance because I don’t have a high opinion of the Bruins right now, but that could always change. Tennessee got four first half turnovers but only 14 first half points. Crompton’s percentage was bad, but UCLA has a decent defense. I can’t ding them too bad for now since they at least went and played on the west coast.

Ole Miss – Memphis is not very good, but Ole Miss showed some real promise. The Wild Rebel formation, about the only thing Houston Nutt took away from his year with Gus Malzahn, was a smashing success. All that talk about Ed Orgeron stocking cupboards in Oxford was true, and if Nutt can harness it into something cohesive for a season, the Rebels will finish comfortably ahead of Arkansas and their in-state rival.

Kentucky – When Rich Brooks said his team had an SEC-caliber defense, I chuckled and decided to take a wait-and-see approach. Apparently he was absolutely right about that, but he forgot to mention that the offense might not be SEC-caliber. All but three of the Wildcats’ points against Louisville were scored or set up directly by the defense, and the offense prevented a shutout with QB Mike Hartline getting a grounding penalty in the endzone. If the Cats can’t figure out how to score more points, they’ll have a hard time climbing any higher than ninth.

Vanderbilt – Chris Nickson surprised a lot of people with his strong play against Miami University, and the Commodores won somewhat surprisingly easy. That bodes well for a team that lost a lot from last season. Bobby Johnson will have his work cut out for him if he plans on repeating last year’s five-win performance, but it will be easier if Nickson runs for 166 yards every week. D.J. Moore? Beastly.

Mississippi State – Louisiana Tech will be pretty good this season, but still, the Bulldogs had no business playing in Ruston, much less losing there. The magic from last season is fading already as Mississippi State had a -3 turnover margin. They outgained Tech 322-243, but ten penalties, five turnovers, and a 4-15 mark on third down negated that advantage.

Correct the mistakes and they win the game, but it’s not looking good for finishing above fifth in the division right now. Sly Croom is going to have to go back to his bag of tricks to get them to another bowl game.

Arkansas – Yes Mississippi State lost, but if you beat a I-AA team by just four points, that’s not good. This season, I’d classify that as worse than losing at LA Tech. Casey Dick can pass, but the Razorback faithful had better hope this Michael Smith kid (suspended for the first game) can really run. Having just 76 rushing yards won’t cut it in most SEC games.

Arkansas outgained WIU 394-262, committed just four penalties, went 7-11 on third downs, and yet was still down by 10 points in the fourth quarter. That’s some special kind of voodoo right there. Three turnovers, a reported six or so drops by receivers, and a 13:23 deficit in time of possession are troubling. This could be a long, long year in Fayetteville.

SEC Power Poll Ballot: Preseason

The preseason SEC Power Poll this year (conducted by Garnet and Black Attack) is not a ranking of the teams, but a ranking of the coaches. Specifically, it is a ranking of coaching ability.

My ballot is based on who is good now, and it is slanted towards performance in this decade. No lifetime achievement awards are being handed out here.

Here’s my list and the explanations.

1. Urban Meyer

Call it a homer pick if you want, but he’s done well everywhere he’s gone. He turned in an undefeated season at Utah, becoming the first BCS Buster ever. Let’s also not forget that he did it before the BCS expanded to five games.

At Florida he won a national and conference championship and got a quarterback a Heisman. He proved the spread could work in the SEC and did it so convincingly that other coaches in the league are going to install some spread-style goodness of their own in 2008. Add to that his ace recruiting abilities, and you have my vote for top SEC coach.

2. Tommy Tuberville

I should specify that this is a vote for the Tuberville of 2004 and on and not for the Tuberville of 2003 and prior. There is a difference, and I outlined it here.

The post-2003 Tuberville has been one of the best coaches in the country in that span, though the fact he’s only parlayed that into one conference title is the reason why he’s second on the list. He also gets points for abandoning his old, conservative offense and actually giving former outcast/spread guru Tony Franklin the shot at major college coaching that he deserves.

3. Mark Richt

Richt is on pace for becoming the most successful head coach in Georgia history. He has two conference titles and a 13-1 season that wins him a national title in nearly any other year than the 2002 season in which he did it. He also lost to Vandy in 2006, something that a top league coach shouldn’t do six years into his tenure despite the strides the Commodores have made under Bobby Johnson.

He ended up third in the league on my ballot. That is still nothing to sneeze at in the best coaching conference in the country. How he does with the heaps of expectations on him this year will help to sort out his place in the hierarchy as well as help to define his legacy as a head coach.

4. Nick Saban

I know some people will be upset seeing him this high, especially given the loss to Louisiana-Monroe last season. It’s difficult to blame him too much for the negative goings on last season though given that his predecessor was Mike Shula, a guy who never should have been given a head coaching position.

Despite that fact, all six of the losses were by eight points or less so the Tide was competitive in every one of them. He had a blowout win over the SEC East champ Tennessee. Let’s also not forget the BCS championship he won at LSU and the incredible amount of talent he left there when he bolted to the Dolphins.

5. Les Miles

I decided that the first five guys on the ballot had to be guys who have won the national title in this decade, or at least have done enough to win one in a normal year. Since Miles won his national title with two losses while Meyer’s and Saban’s came with one loss (and Tuber ville had an undefeated season and Richt had a 13-1 year), he ended up fifth.

Yes it’s true that he walked into a treasure trove of talent at LSU. It’s also true that he has gone 11-2 each of the past three seasons with two blowout wins in BCS bowls and a Peach Bowl win that ended Miami football as we knew it. He also doesn’t get nearly enough credit for keeping the LSU team together after the Hurricane Katrina disaster just days before the start of his first season in Baton Rouge. He’s colorful, but he can coach.

6. Bobby Petrino

I’m going to throw out his time with the Falcons, which was spent under conditions that pretty much no one could succeed under. Instead, I’m looking more at his time at Louisville where he turned it into one of the country’s best teams, nearly made the national title game, and helped save the Big East.

The immediate drop off after his departure should highlight how good of a coach he was. He still did win his BCS game as the Big East champ though, which unfortunately doesn’t mean a whole lot, and it was over surprise ACC champ Wake Forest, which makes it matter even less. He’s still got a bright offensive mind and knows how to build a winner, so he goes here.

7. Phil Fulmer

You could make a case for him being higher or lower on the list, but he’s listed here thanks to being the final guy who has won a division championship at his current school. His East Division title last season helped some, but the fact remains that he has not won a conference title since 1998 and none of his teams has truly been elite without David Cutcliffe.

He gets some points for hiring Dave Clawson but nothing big until we find out if the Clawfense can succeed long term in the conference. Fulmer didn’t really manage his staff as well as he could/should have in the time between the Cutcliffe stints, but maybe this is a step forward. He will have to win the conference again to move higher on my list though.

8. Steve Spurrier

It pains me a little to put him this low, but there’s not a lot he’s done at South Carolina to support putting him higher. The Orange Bowl win in his final year at Florida was this decade so it does count some, but not being able to break past seven wins at South Carolina hurts his ability to go higher on my list.

Now, he did go to two bowls in a row in 2005-06, which ties the longest bowl appearance streak in school history. Lou Holtz also left the school on probation and in questionable shape. However, I can’t ignore the epic collapse last season after climbing to #6 in the country. His upward mobility will be determined in large part by whether he can win the division.

9. Houston Nutt

This could be a little low, but we’re talking about ability to perform the duties of head coach with this list. He won the SEC West twice this decade, but with Matt Jones and Darren McFadden on those teams, you’d expect that to happen.

In recent years, his ability to be a head coach has appeared to decline. His regime at Arkansas had increasingly been marked by scandal, and last season there was precious little offensive talent behind the McFadden-Felix Jones combination. The cupboards at Ole Miss appear to be relatively full, so he’s going to need to produce quickly in Oxford.

10. Sylvester Croom

Mississippi State was a toxic waste dump of a program when he arrived, and he got it to eight wins and a bowl just four years later despite having no dominant offensive players. Even in Croom’s rebuilding years, he scored upsets over Florida in ’04 and Alabama in ’06 despite them being in better shape.

He has not been perfect; he initially wanted to run a West Coast scheme despite not having nearly the talent or practice time to pull it off. However he’s built a winner, and he built it the right way. If he can sustain it, he can move up.

11. Rich Brooks

Brooks has taken Kentucky to two consecutive bowls, and that should win him some sort of award. I mean, this is a school that used its newly-hired basketball coach to sell football tickets last fall despite having gone to a bowl the previous season.

I have a feeling though that any of the other guys on the list could have done that with the personnel Brooks had. I also suspect that many of them would have done it faster than he did. For that reason, he’s behind the rest.

12. Bobby Johnson

I actually like Bobby Johnson, so I don’t like ranking him last. He has made Vanderbilt a competitive team week in and week out, and he has defeated Tennessee and Georgia in recent years. That’s really good for a school that doesn’t even have an athletics director.

At the same time, he’s not yet made a bowl so I can’t put him ahead of guys who have. His 2005 team with Jay Cutler was his best chance to get eligible, but they lost late in the season to 3-8 Kentucky. As far as I know, Vanderbilt is happy with him so he’s not going anywhere, but I’d like to see him get a shot at a school with more resources.

Potential Risers in 2008

Playing a lot of close games can be good or bad depending on your perspective. If you’re planning on being a top team, it could be bad since you’re not blowing out as many teams as you thought you would. If you’re an up-and-coming team, it could be good because that means you’re competitive in many games.

To win a lot of close games, it takes some skill and a lot of luck. You have to get some breaks in order to prevail, no matter how skilled you are. Some times you get them, some times you don’t.

Things tend to even out in college football in regards to winning close games. If you get a lot of breaks one year, you don’t tend to get them the next, and vice versa. Following that line of thinking, it is possible to use how a team does in close games in one season to pick out candidates for risers and fallers for the next season.

For instance, Rutgers and Wake Forest were big surprise teams in 2006 when they went 3-0 and 5-1 in close games. By that measure you’d expect them to fall off some, and they did, going from 11-2 and 11-3 in ‘06 to 8-5 (2-2 in close games) and 9-4 (3-2) in ‘07. On the other side of the coin, Missouri went 0-3 in close games in 2006 on the way to going 8-5, but it went 12-2 in 2007 thanks in part to being 2-0 in close games.

It is an inexact science of course. Teams get better and worse, their schedules change, players come and go, coaches and coordinators change, and so on. This is a list of teams that have the potential for rising; you must engage your brain from here on out to decide how well these teams will do.

For these purposes, a “close game” is defined as a game where the final score is eight points or less – in other words, one touchdown and conversion could tie or swing the game. Teams that made the main list had at least three more losses than wins; teams on the watch list had two more losses than wins and played at least four close games.

Only BCS conference teams (including Notre Dame) were analyzed.

Maryland Terrapins, 6-7 overall, 1-5 in close games

Maryland has languished in mediocrity since winning 10+ games from 2001-03. Ralph Friedgen probably needs a good season or else he could be on his way out. His team posted one of the three worst records in close games in 2007, so either his team was really close or it had poor execution.

Maryland was picked 5th in its division in 2007, precisely where it ended up, and it’s picked to do the same in 2008. If the Terps can catch some breaks though, which they apparently couldn’t a season ago, they could surprise a lot of people.

Michigan State Spartans, 7-6 overall, 2-6 in close games

Mark Dantonio was almost universally praised for the job he did in his first year in East Lansing. After three straight losing seasons, he got them above .500 and competitive in all six losses. Sparty could be set for a breakout season in 2008.

Minnesota Golden Gophers, 1-11 overall, 1-6 in close games

Minnesota’s season was a disaster last year, especially on defense. Tim Brewster has proven to be a pretty good recruiter, and he has lots of optimism for the future. And why not? Despite the poor defensive play, seven of the Gophers’ twelve games were close.

Then again, one of those close losses was to North Dakota State. Caveat emptor.

UCLA Bruins, 6-7 overall, 0-3 in close games

I would hazard a guess that most UCLA fans would attribute the poor record in close games to mismanagement by Karl Dorrell.

This team is a probably a case where the record doesn’t indicate a turnaround – the coaching staff has changed, the top two quarterbacks are hurt, and it’s debatable how much talent is on the sidelines in Westwood. Then again, Rick Neuheisel is known for quick turnarounds.

North Carolina Tar Heels, 4-8 overall, 2-6 in close games

In Butch Davis’ first year, UNC was very competitive for a 4-8 team. Only two of its eight losses were by more than one score, and that’s what you’re looking for in an up-and-coming team.

Many people are already expecting big things out of the Heels in 2008, with them having been picked second in the ACC’s Coastal Division. Their record in close games in 2007 would seem to back up those expectations, as long as things regress to the mean in Chapel Hill.

Vanderbilt Commodores, 5-7 overall, 0-3 in close games

For the second time in three seasons, Vanderbilt finished one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 1982. Two seasons ago the five wins came on the back of star QB Jay Cutler. Last season the five wins came despite great upheaval at the quarterback position, and the ‘Dores had three good chances to get that sixth win anyway.

Could 2008 be the season that Vandy finally breaks through? Perhaps, but lets not forget that scaring the big boys by losing close games is one of the things that defines Vanderbilt over the past couple decades.

Washington Huskies, 4-9 overall, 0-5 in close games

Ty Willingham has been working his way through a bad situation in the post-Neuheisel era. His many critics probably would attribute the 0-5 mark in close games to poor coaching and execution. Others might attribute it to having a young team and starting a freshman quarterback.

The pressure is definitely on Willingham to have a good season. If another year goes by with a poor record in close games, the folks on the “poor coaching and execution” side of the argument will probably win out.

The Watch List

Alabama Crimson Tide, 7-6 overall, 4-6 in close games

Arizona Wildcats, 5-7 overall, 2-4 in close games

Cincinnati Bearcats, 10-3 overall, 1-3 in close games

Louisville Cardinals, 6-6 overall, 3-5 in close games

Mississippi Rebels, 3-9 overall, 2-4 in close games