The process of how games select their participants is outlined here.
If the season ended today, the following teams would get the automatic bids based on the conference standings:
ACC: Wake Forest (4 conference wins, tiebreaker over FSU)
Big 12: Texas Tech
Big Ten: Michigan State (6-1 conference record, no one else is better than 5-1)
Big East: Pitt/Cincinnati (Cincy beat West Virginia, these two have identical conference and overall records)
Pac-10: Oregon State (tiebreaker over USC)
SEC: Alabama
Non-BCS: Utah (by virtue of being the highest ranked non-BCS team and being inside the top 12)
Other: Texas (not a conference winner but still in top 4)
The Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl get first picks since they lost their tie-in teams. This year, the rotation after they pick replacements is Fiesta-Sugar-Orange. The order of the selections goes like this:
- Sugar takes Florida to replace #1 Alabama to lock in an SEC team
- Fiesta takes Texas to replace #2 Texas Tech to lock in a Big 12 team
- Fiesta takes USC, the most desirable at-large left and a nearby team
- Sugar takes Utah
- Orange takes Pitt/Cincinnati
I am making the assumption that the Sugar Bowl will want to set up an “Urban Meyer against his former team” storyline. It will have the luxury of doing so because of how well Florida fans travel. Plus, Utah at this point probably brings quite a few fans themselves, and I don’t know how big a crowd Pitt or Cincinnati will bring.
In total:
BCS Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose Bowl: Michigan State and Oregon State
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Pitt/Cincinnati
