Let the BCS Fretting Begin

Urban Meyer said he’d be disappointed (or something to that effect) if the Gators didn’t hit 60 points this weekend. We got to 70, so mission accomplished.

Something that will be on Gator fans’ minds this week is whether Oklahoma’s big win could put the Gators’ national title game hopes in jeopardy. It’s one thing to put up 70 on a I-AA team with the backups going most of the way, but it’s another entirely to put up 65 points on the undefeated No. 2 team.

In the short term, no one should be shocked at all to see Oklahoma pass up Florida in the standings. With LSU crashing and burning to turn a good win into just a win, it’s hard to make a case for UF to be ahead of OU. In fact, I’d be surprised if the Sooners were not the new No. 2 behind Alabama.

Now before we get too ahead of ourselves, there still are two more weeks to go before the BCS selections. Oklahoma has been known to drop shockers or Oklahoma State this decade, and it is never easy for Florida in Tallahassee. Alabama won’t be a picnic either. Throw on top of that two straight Texas A&M upsets over Texas the past two years and Missouri waiting in the Big 12 title game, and you can see the chances for peril.

No matter what happens in the Big 12 though, I still say that if Florida wins out they will go to the national title game. That is especially true if Alabama beats Auburn (which they will).

We learned in 2006 that voters as a whole do not want rematches. We saw in both 2006 and 2007 that winning your conference is an important factor too. Twice we’ve seen a Big 12 team not win the league and still go to the national title game (2001 Nebraska, 2003 Oklahoma), and both times that team lost. There’s no way voters will ignore that.

I don’t expect to see Florida get to the No. 2 spot until after a win over Alabama (should it come), because poll inertia wins until the final ballot when voters manually choose who they want to see play for it all. Texas can’t impress anymore because of how bad Texas A&M is, and the way Oklahoma beat Texas Tech will override the 10-point loss at a neutral site to the Longhorns.

In other words, rest easy Gators. All we can control is ourselves, and taking care of business should be all we need.

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2 Responses to Let the BCS Fretting Begin

  1. peachy says:

    Just so. The day has not yet come when an undefeated team from the MWC or WAC can displace a one-loss team from the SEC. Penn State has finished its season, and I’d be shocked if they moved past us in today’s rankings. USC has two games to go, but they will hardly improve its profile (FSU alone may be as valuable as both.) And, as you say, voters have shown no inclination for rematches – or for turning the title game into a single conference affair.

    I’d add that Ole Miss did us a good turn yesterday – with every game they win, our loss to them becomes a less horrific blemish (and as their stock rises, their own losses are being reinterpreted as valiant efforts undone by bad luck – or simply the misfortune of playing an elite team – rather than proof of incompetence.)

  2. O-town Gator says:

    As long as our Gators continue to play their game, not get complacent, and not repeat the same mistakes that cost us the Ole Miss game we’ll be fine. We can BEAT both that school out west and Bama – and then after that it’ll come down to being in the right place at the right time as far as the BCS is concerned.

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