A Follow Up on Predictions

Last Thursday I threw out some numerical predictions for the SEC title game based on the teams’ stats and those of their opponents. I was looking to see what kind of effect each team had on their foes, such as (for instance) Florida holds its opponents to almost 13 points a game under their season averages. The whole thing is here.

Anyway, looking at real yardage and point differences (as opposed to percentage differences) produced a fairly accurate picture of the game. It said Alabama was likely to gain between 317 and 333 yards, and the Crimson Tide had 323 yards against the Gators. It also predicted a scoring window of 19 to 22 points, and Alabama scored 20.

For Florida, it predicted a range of 370 to 374 total yards. The Gators ended up gaining just 358 yards. For points, it predicted a range of 34 to 36 points, a little more than the 31 Florida ended up getting. It is worth noting that Percy Harvin could easily have made up that shortfall, and also if Jonathan Phillips made his second field goal attempt, they’d have hit the lower boundary of the range.

Whether Florida’s bowl game will hold to this pattern or not I do not know, but I’ll run the numbers again before it happens.

Other predictions I made:

  • It’s going to come down to execution in every phase of the game. (Check)
  • I don’t think one team will lead the whole game… (Check)
  • Nor do I think either will win by more than 14 points because they are so close (Check)
  • I believe Tebow will find a way to win. (Double Check)

All that’s missing at this point is a berth in the national title game to make it complete. Overall, I think I did quite well with this game. It makes me feel good, at least until I pull out my preseason predictions to revisit those for a later post. Clemson the easy choice in the ACC? Ohio State in the national title game again? Beanie Wells winning the Heisman? Ouch.


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