Did the Fiesta Bowl Tell Us Anything About Thursday?

Once again, a Big 12 offense has underperformed its expected value based on its and its opposing defenses’ play all year. Texas projected to score 36.5 points, but ended up with only 24.

Kansas is still the only Big 12 offense to exceed its expected point value, and again, it was against a cratering Minnesota team. Oklahoma projects to get about 38 points, and I wouldn’t call it a stretch to think that Florida could hold the Sooners under that if they show up ready to play as a D.

Run defense was an early talking point in the game, as someone on Fox’s research staff pulled out the gem that the Longhorns had seen the fewest rushes of any defense. This tidbit was to point out how pass-heavy the Big 12 was this season.

I looked it up, and the NCAA stats that are currently available include all games through the Sugar Bowl. Even with everyone getting their bowls counted and Texas not, UT did indeed face the fewest rushes. They saw 317 runs against them, with second place being TCU who saw 355 rushes.

What about percentage though? Maybe Texas just didn’t see that many plays run against it thanks to its great offense being on the field a lot.

Well, Texas saw the lowest rush percentage too with opponents running just 40.5% of the time against them. The strong Texas D-line combined with a really young secondary was probably the reason behind this. The pass-happy Big 12 did help some, but it’s not the whole story.

Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri all ended up in the bottom ten of opponents rush percentage along with Texas, and five teams in the bottom ten is a trend, not an outlier. Even so, Alabama and Iowa from the quarterback-challenged SEC and Big Ten were also in the bottom ten. Florida clocked in at 21st-lowest opposing run percentage.

The conference doesn’t explain it all. The fact these teams (Iowa excepted) got up big early and often meant that opponents were forced to pass more often. That’s a main reason why who finishes a game with the most passing yards is generally a poor predictor of who won the game, while the team that rushes for more yards is a much better one.

The fact that Texas’ players didn’t see a power rushing attack all season had more to do with Beanie Wells’ early success than a flat lack of running plays in general. Will Muschamp has seen plenty in his day, and he knows what to do against them, but it’s different when you experience it in a live game. Besides, the fact that Wells is simply a gifted back had something to do with it too.

So what about Thursday? The fact that Oklahoma saw a relatively low number of rushing plays probably means nothing either. Florida has actually seen fewer, at 411 to the Sooners’ 425. OU also saw a power-oriented rush attack against TCU and did fine, holding the Frogs to 2.9 yards per rush. TCU doesn’t use option the way Florida does and certainly doesn’t have a power-running quarterback like Tim Tebow, but the Oklahoma defense does get to go up against the monstrous Oklahoma offensive line in practice.

It’s basically a non-issue, even if it is a nice bit of trivia.

As has been reported, Florida’s defense is much higher in the national rankings than Oklahoma’s is. It is also considerably higher than Texas’ defense too, and the ‘Horns tied for holding OU to its lowest point output of the year.

Florida’s defense is practically even with where Ohio State was going into this game, and we saw that the Buckeyes held Texas to 17 points for more than 59 minutes.

Florida’s offense is considerably better in just about every quantifiable way than Ohio State’s is. Yes, that even includes rushing as the Gators rush for more yards a game and at 5.96 to 4.59, they get almost a yard and a half more per rush.

Throw all those together and mix them around and it points to a Florida win. In reality though, will it blend? We’ll find out.

In the game of Will it Blend, Tom always wins.

An Oklahoma DB Falls Into the Trap

One side effect of the circus that perpetually surrounds Tim Tebow is that he doesn’t get to lead a normal life, or even a normal one for a football player. I am fairly sure most of his teammates like John Brantley and Janoris Jenkins get to walk around without getting noticed. Tebow hasn’t been able to do that since he first got to campus in January 2006.

Another side effect is that opposing defenders hear about him. A lot. They hear about him to the point of frustration, as though every mention of Tebow’s name is a shot at their ability and pride.

For Sooner CB Dominique Franks, the boiling point has come and gone:

“If you look at the three best quarterbacks in the country, they came from the Big 12…

With us being in Florida and playing against Florida, everybody’s going to think Tebow should have won the Heisman. But the right person won the Heisman, and we’re going to go out there and show everybody the reason why he won it…

Going into a game and knowing a quarterback’s going to throw the ball 40 times a game versus coming into a game and knowing he’s probably only going to throw it about 15 or 20… It makes it a lot harder to prepare for those [Big 12] guys…

Hopefully, he’ll throw me the ball a couple of times, and I can get my hands on it.“

Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy also decided to say that Tebow “really knows what he’s doing, but I think we’re prepared enough that we’ll know what they’re doing as well as they know it.”

OU defensive coordinator Bret Venables did a nice job of backtracking, saying that Franks hasn’t watched enough tape yet, that Franks is confident in his teammates, and that the team as a whole is confident in their process.

That’s all well and good, but this bowl season hasn’t been kind on Big 12 offenses so far. Bowl games are never good enough evidence to outweigh a regular season’s lot of games, but Kansas has the only offense from the conference that has outperformed what would be expected given theirs and their opponent’s season averages (see calculation method here). Not only that, but KU did it against a reeling Minnesota team that was nowhere near as good as its stats would have you believe.

That fact would at least a little bit cast some doubt on the value of the Big 12 quarterbacks’ stats that Franks was touting. While I agree that Sam Bradford was worthy of winning the Heisman, I have a feeling the Florida team as a whole would take exception with how he stated that notion.

As for the part about preparing for pass numbers, he is quite a bit off. The way that Florida does its run/pass option plays is different than how anyone he’s seen does it, and Florida has probably the best set of run blocking receivers in the country. On top of that no quarterback in the country (much less the Big 12) matches Tebow’s power running game, so his unique usage by the Florida offensive staff would indicate he requires more preparation from opposing defenses, not less.

I also appreciate that Gerald McCoy believes his team will be ready. I’m sure they will be since Oklahoma has a great defensive staff. However FSU DC Mickey Andrews knew what was coming in his second attempt at stopping the Tebow-led offense, and UF put up 45 points. Georgia’s DC Willie Martinez in his second crack at it gave up 49 points. South Carolina’s Ellis Johnson, a widely-respected defensive coordinator in his own right, gave up 49 in his first attempt.

Knowing what’s coming and stopping it are two different things. Everyone knew what Alabama was going to do on offense all year, and only two teams stopped it well enough to pull out wins.

Finally, Franks probably doesn’t understand what he did in falling into the trap of publicly trash talking Tim Tebow. Big No. 15 and his teammates don’t take it lightly. Here are a few examples of what happens when people publicly run their mouths about him:

1. In November 2007, LB Geno Hayes said before the UF-FSU game that Tebow was “going down,” and “the bigger they are the harder they fall.” Florida won the game 45-12.
2. At Tennessee’s media day prior to this season, DT Demonte Bolden said, “Man, I don’t care about Tebow. Yeah, he’s an All-American, but he’s a regular player. Get him back on the field. You know what I’m saying. I made hits on him last year. This year, I’m going to get back to him a lot quicker.” Florida won the game 30-6, and only the two teams’ run-heavy offenses and the new clock rules kept it from being worse as Florida scored on six of its seven non-garbage time drives.
3. No one from Miami called out Tebow by name that I could find, but the Hurricanes talked plenty of trash. C Xavier Shannon (head coach Randy’s son) said he wanted “to show [the Gators] the University of Miami still rules the state of Florida,” and S Anthony Reddick wondered, “[a]re they going to be able to match up with our defense?” Florida won the game 26-3, and Miami was fortunate to get the three.
4. LSU DT Ricky Jean-Francois said this season that if he and his fellow linemen got a good look at Tebow, “we’re going to try our best to take him out of the game.” Florida won the contest 51-21 and Jean-Francois didn’t even travel to Gainesville for the game due to injury.
5. South Carolina LB Eric Norwood promised Florida would not score 40 on his defense. He also predicted he’d get a sack and that it was “definitely going to hurt.” Norwood did get a sack, but it was his Gamecocks who got a hurting to the tune of 56-6.

It is not a trap that the Florida players or coaches set, but it’s a trap that Franks fell into. His temperament couldn’t take hearing about Tebow anymore, and he ran his mouth promising doom for the Gators’ signal caller.

We’ll see if he and his fellow defenders can back it up, but history is not on his side.

Let the BCS Fretting Continue (For Real, This Time)

The latest BCS standings are in, and like last week Florida is No. 4. That really is not surprising, given that Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma all won in blowouts just like the Gators did.

Here’s the problem that makes this week more precarious than last week: beating FSU did almost nothing for Florida’s standing in the computer rankings. Granted, FSU wasn’t all that high in the BCS rankings at No. 20, but they were a team the computer polls liked better than the humans. The algorithms had the Seminoles at No. 18 overall.

But then, a lot of Florida’s past opponents happened to lose to teams with similar or worse records. Miami lost to NC State, LSU lost to Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Tennessee, Georgia lost to Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt lost to Wake Forest, and South Carolina lost to Clemson. None of those outcomes were friendly to the Gators, leaving only two vanquished teams (Georgia and FSU) with more than seven wins on the season.

So, Florida moved up just .03 in the computer rankings in the BCS. No sweat though, just beat consensus No. 1 Alabama and we’re in the title game, right? Well not so fast there cowboy, because Alabama fell to No. 3 in the computer rankings behind both Texas and Oklahoma. It would certainly be the best win for the Gators all year, but it carries less weight this week than it did last week.

After all, the human polls are generally nothing to worry about. They will likely have the Big 12 and SEC champs in the top two slots with a noticeable gap between No. 2 and No. 3. The computer polls however still have Florida at No. 6. An upset of Texas Tech by Baylor would have helped a lot, as the Red Raiders are still ranked above Florida in all but one computer poll.

As UF is already No. 2 in the Harris Poll, a win would put the Gators at No. 1 there. The Coaches Poll dropped Florida to No. 4 as the voters all focused on Texas and Oklahoma this week. That one could get a little hairy.

Best as I can tell, here are the possible outcomes for this weekend with the attached implications for the Gators. Obviously a loss to Alabama knocks them out of the national title race, so I’m not even going to go over it.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma loses to Missouri

SEC Championship Game: Just win, baby. Doesn’t matter how.

Outcome: Texas and Florida in the national title game. Clean and simple.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma barely squeaks by Missouri on something controversial or fluky.

SEC Championship Game: Florida barely squeaks by Alabama on something controversial or fluky.

Outcome: Human voters have a crisis of conscience, wondering if Texas should have gone to the Big 12 Championship Game instead of Oklahoma. There is a general sympathy towards the Longhorns, and some try to rectify the perceived mistake by voting them in the national title game. Florida takes No. 1 in the Harris Poll but comes out No. 2 or (gulp) No. 3 thanks to those warring factions. The computers continue to hate Florida, and we get a rematch of Texas and Oklahoma.

SOMETHING IN BETWEEN, V. 1

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma demolishes Missouri.

SEC Championship Game: Florida barely squeaks by Alabama.

Likely Outcome: A gaudy blowout by the Sooners assuages the minds of the humans. They all stick to the script of Big 12 vs. SEC in the national title game and there is a noticeable gap between the top two and No. 3 Texas. The computers (who cannot look at margin of victory) will still have Florida a spot or two behind Texas, but the gap in the human polls is too much to overcome. Florida gets in the national title game by a razor-thin margin.

SOMETHING IN BETWEEN, V. 2

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma barely squeaks by Missouri on something controversial or fluky.

SEC Championship Game: Florida solidly beats or blows out Alabama.

Possible Outcome 1: Human voters agree on having Florida in the national title game, but they waffle on Texas and Oklahoma. Gators are No. 1 in one or both human polls, but the computers yawn at the win over Alabama and keep UF behind Texas Tech and Utah. Controversy keeps the Big 12 guys close, and the formulas break the tie in favor of a UT-OU rematch.

Possible Outcome 2: Human voters agree on having Florida in the national title game, but they waffle on Texas and Oklahoma. Gators are No. 1 in one or both human polls, and the computers look favorably at the win over Alabama. They have UF jump over Utah and possibly Texas Tech, and Florida plays Oklahoma for the title.

Possible Outcome 3: The humans stick to the precedent of the past two seasons and keep to the unwritten rule that requires a conference championship to go to the national title game. There is a noticeable gap between the top two and No. 3 Texas, and that is enough to make the algorithms moot. Florida plays Oklahoma.

Now, I still think Florida will most likely play for the national title with a win over Alabama no matter what else happens. It all depends two things: how impressed will the computers be with adding the Crimson Tide to the Gators’ schedule strength and whether there will be a general sympathy for Texas if Oklahoma barely defeats Missouri. We’ll get a better feeling on the status of the latter as the week goes on.

Here’s the good news, Gators. ESPN’s BCS guru Brad Edwards (who actually knows his stuff well and isn’t a chattering empty suit like Mark May) seems to agree with me on Florida’s chances. He reminds us that when it comes to the BCS, your ranking doesn’t matter as much as the points do. No. 4 UF is only 12 points behind No. 2 Oklahoma, with 1,385 points to OU’s 1,397.

We know a Gator win puts them on top of the Harris Poll, and Edwards seems to think the impact of defeating No. 1 Alabama along with any residual controversy between the Sooners and Longhorns will vault Florida to No. 1 in the Coaches’ Poll too. His theory is that if Florida is No. 1 in both human polls, that will be enough to send them to Miami instead of New Orleans. If the Gators are only No. 2 in the Coaches’ Poll though, it could spell trouble.

From my observations over the past couple years, I have noticed that the Coaches’ Poll doesn’t generally take big leaps of logic. The AP Poll tends to shuffle teams around more often, with poll inertia and lazy voting affecting the coaches’ side more.

My feeling is that, as with 2006 and 2007, the coaches will vote a Big 12 champion Oklahoma and the SEC champion No. 1 and 2 to affirm the value of winning a conference and because it’s the easiest road to take. The vast majority will do this, and I would expect to see little dissent. That is especially true since the coaches’ ballots will become public after this week’s voting.

As it is, I think Oklahoma will hammer Missouri. The Sooner machine is nearly unstoppable in the regular season against inferior competition, and they will probably lay waste to the mildly disappointing Tigers. Mizzou will not be able to protect Chase Daniel enough for him to lead the normal offense, and there is no way the defense will slow down Sam Bradford and company.

The most important thing is beating Alabama. None of this matters without winning the conference. In all likelihood, a win puts Florida at No. 1 in both human polls but still not above OU or UT in the computers. The points matter more than the rankings, remember, so how distant a No. 3 Texas becomes in the human polls will play a huge part in deciding who plays for it all.

If you are a Gator fan though, be nice to your computer this week. Don’t swear at it or abuse it. We’ll need all the help from them we can get.

Let the BCS Fretting Begin

Urban Meyer said he’d be disappointed (or something to that effect) if the Gators didn’t hit 60 points this weekend. We got to 70, so mission accomplished.

Something that will be on Gator fans’ minds this week is whether Oklahoma’s big win could put the Gators’ national title game hopes in jeopardy. It’s one thing to put up 70 on a I-AA team with the backups going most of the way, but it’s another entirely to put up 65 points on the undefeated No. 2 team.

In the short term, no one should be shocked at all to see Oklahoma pass up Florida in the standings. With LSU crashing and burning to turn a good win into just a win, it’s hard to make a case for UF to be ahead of OU. In fact, I’d be surprised if the Sooners were not the new No. 2 behind Alabama.

Now before we get too ahead of ourselves, there still are two more weeks to go before the BCS selections. Oklahoma has been known to drop shockers or Oklahoma State this decade, and it is never easy for Florida in Tallahassee. Alabama won’t be a picnic either. Throw on top of that two straight Texas A&M upsets over Texas the past two years and Missouri waiting in the Big 12 title game, and you can see the chances for peril.

No matter what happens in the Big 12 though, I still say that if Florida wins out they will go to the national title game. That is especially true if Alabama beats Auburn (which they will).

We learned in 2006 that voters as a whole do not want rematches. We saw in both 2006 and 2007 that winning your conference is an important factor too. Twice we’ve seen a Big 12 team not win the league and still go to the national title game (2001 Nebraska, 2003 Oklahoma), and both times that team lost. There’s no way voters will ignore that.

I don’t expect to see Florida get to the No. 2 spot until after a win over Alabama (should it come), because poll inertia wins until the final ballot when voters manually choose who they want to see play for it all. Texas can’t impress anymore because of how bad Texas A&M is, and the way Oklahoma beat Texas Tech will override the 10-point loss at a neutral site to the Longhorns.

In other words, rest easy Gators. All we can control is ourselves, and taking care of business should be all we need.

Guns Up

Congrats to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and their coach Mike Leach. Leach, at least when it comes to on-field philosophy, is the closest thing we have to 1990s-era Steve Spurrier in the game today. His teams are fun to watch, and now they’ve won the biggest game in school history.

I really mean that, and not just because it helped the Gators move up in the polls. Regardless of what happens, a Florida-Texas Tech bowl game would be awesome and terrifying at the same time.

A Eulogy for Defense in the Big 12

I have been saying for a while that defense is dead in the Big 12, but after this past weekend, I think we can say it is really and truly gone.

Seven of the twelve member schools hit the 30-point mark, six of them surpassing 450 yards of total offense. The two showdowns between ranked schools produced 76 and 87 points, respectively. Kansas and Oklahoma surpassed 1,000 yards between them before the third quarter was even over.

Now look, as a Gator fan who grew up in the Steve Spurrier era, I love to watch teams play pitch and catch all over the field. At some point though, you have to stop someone. After all, Spurrer didn’t win his national title until he got Bob Stoops as his defensive coordinator.

How did this happen? The old Big Eight and Southwest Conferences used to be havens of defense and running, not this wide open passing stuff with defenders helplessly waving their arms at receivers as they run by.

Part of it has to do with the pass happy spread offenses that have flourished across the Big 12’s recruiting grounds. To adapt Bill Parcells’ old line, you want to cook recipes designed for the ingredients that you shop for. If all the best high school guys are coming from spread systems, it would make sense to run an offense that fits them so you can get peak production from them.

Ironically enough, on the coaching side it may have actually come to the Big 12 from the SEC. When he took over at Oklahoma, Stoops came back to the Big 12 after being the defensive coordinator under passing game genius Steve Spurrier. He saw how well pass-heavy schemes can work with top players. He also imported Mike Leach from Kentucky to run Leach’s variant of Hal Mumme’s Air Raid offense.

After one season Leach left to take over Texas Tech and Stoops got Mark Mangino as an offensive coordinator to run something similar. That combination resulted in a national championship in 2000.

Even after Mangino left to coach at Kansas, Stoops kept an offensive identity that favored lots of passing. It should be noted that Stoops and Mangino originated from the Bill Snyder coaching tree, and Snyder had some prolific offenses of his own led by guys like Michael Bishop, Ell Roberson, and Darren Sproles.

After OU’s national title, more and more guys with pass-friendly offenses found their way into the Big12, from Gary Pinkel in 2001 to Bill Callahan in 2004 to Mike Sherman in 2008. Now we stand with only three head coaches of the 12 that were not offensive coordinators or offensive assistants before becoming head coaches: Stoops, Gene Chizik, and Bo Pelini. Chizik is of course in the wastelands of Iowa State and Pelini hasn’t had enough time to turn around the disaster that Callahan left him.

Today, the highest-ranked team in total defense from the Big 12 is Oklahoma at No. 34 with 315 yards allowed per game. Only the Sun Belt Conference doesn’t have a team higher than that, and the Sooners just gave up 491 and 438 yards in back-to-back weekends.

The highest-ranked team in scoring defense from the Big 12 is Texas at No. 25 with 17 points allowed per game. Only the Sun Belt Conference and CUSA don’t have a team higher than that, and the Longhorns just gave up 31 and 35 points in back-to-back weekends. That ranking is built on things like giving up 10 points to FAU (116th in scoring offense), 10 to Arkansas (100th), and 14 to Colorado (87th).

Sure, Texas’ defensive line looked great against Mizzou. Brian Orakpo probably is unblockable against any offensive line in the country. We also must consider that the Tigers’ O-line had serious trouble against Oklahoma State, who is 108th in the country in sacks.

I don’t mean to make this out like the Big 12 is the only conference with a problem. The ACC and Big East are mired in general mediocrity all around. The Big Ten is a two-team conference thanks to the meltdowns at Michigan and Wisconsin. The Pac-10 is currently owned by the Mountain West, and despite the Trojans’ loss it looks like USC and the Nine Dwarfs again. The SEC is undergoing a lot of offensive transition, with seven schools having had a quarterback controversy at some point.

Still, for all the great quarterbacks the Big 12 has, they alone are not the reason why the Big 12 has had exploding offenses lately. There has been plenty of bad defense going around too, and it’s been that way for a couple of years now.

Say hello to the new WAC-y conference, the league that assumes the Pac-10’s old stereotype of all offense and no defense. Big 12, you’ve earned it.

College GameDay’s Picks

In case you missed the College GameDay season preview show yesterday, here’s how everyone picked. They added Lou Holtz for the preview show, but hopefully he won’t be a part of the main lineup. The three-man crew works best. As always, Chris Fowler did not make any predictions.

Lee Corso

ACC: Clemson

Big 12: Missouri

Big East: South Florida

Big Ten: Ohio State

Pac-10: USC

SEC: Auburn

National Title: USC over Missouri

Kirk Herbstreit

ACC: Clemson

Big 12: Oklahoma

Big East: South Florida

Big Ten: Ohio State

Pac-10: USC

SEC: Florida

National Title: Florida over USC

Lou Holtz

ACC: Wake Forest

Big 12: Oklahoma

Big East: Pitt

Big Ten: Ohio State

Pac-10: USC

SEC: Florida

National Title: Ohio State over Oklahoma

The funniest part of the whole thing was during the picks segment. Corso called Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin “Jeremy McLean” and Kirk nearly lost it. Fowler also messed up an into segment off a commercial break, so even the best of them need some fall practice before the season.

All 2008 Picks In One Place

I don’t think I’m going to have time to write up the rest of my picks in as much detail as I did with the ACC and Big 12. Instead, I am just going to reveal them all now. I will also be showing you how my selections fit with the expected outcomes based on ten years of BCS games and my opinion of the upcoming season.

Before we dig into the picks, I have some numbers to share with you. Numbers aren’t as juicy as picks are, of course, but they form the basis of these predictions.

The first bit is about BCS at-large teams. Since 1998, the BCS has had 24 at-large teams. I’m fudging a bit; the BCS Busters (Utah, Boise State, and Hawaii) had auto-bids, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma when they made the championship game without winning the Big 12. Just humor me for now.

Of those 24 at-larges, 20 have had the opportunity to return to the BCS the next season. Six of them were able to do it; fourteen were not. Since only 30% of BCS at-larges return the next season and we had four at-larges in 2007, we should expect that only one of them comes back this season.

The other important set of stats comes from my analysis of the preseason consensus. Based on that, we would expect there to be four BCS teams that were picked to be first in their division/conference, two that were picked second, one that was picked third, and one from all the rest.

That only adds up to eight teams though, and there are ten BCS spots. I have already said that I think this is a “season of titans” as it were, so to fill in those final two spots I am using two more teams that were picked to finish in first place. That makes a total of six teams picked first in their division/conference in the BCS. Also to fit in with that theory, I expect there to be no BCS Busters in 2008.

The preseason consensus, which appears to be about final at this point, can be found here.

One final point to keep in mind is that only one team–the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners who got a championship game automatic bid–has lost its conference championship game and still made the BCS.

Onto the picks!

ACC

Championship Game: Clemson over Virginia Tech

At-Large: None

BIG 12

Championship Game: Oklahoma over Missouri

At-Large: Texas Tech

BIG EAST

Champion: West Virginia (over second-place Cincinnati, third-place USF)

At-Large: None

I see West Virginia this year in a similar situation as Miami in 2002-03. This is perhaps the last big hurrah for a while since it will be extremely tough to replace Pat White. White will make up for other shortcomings on offense, and DC Jeff Casteel returns from last year’s staff to field a defense that is always better than people think it is.

I really like Cincinnati’s chances to finish second. The Bearcats won ten games last season, and two of their three losses were by one score or less. Replacing Ben Mauk will be difficult, but Brian Kelly is a good coach and a good quarterback developer. The defense will carry them to second place.

USF has talent in key areas, but I just don’t think Matt Grothe is consistent enough to carry them to second place in the conference. There’s just something about him I don’t trust.

BIG TEN

Champion: Ohio State

At-Large: Michigan State

Ohio State should be the best team in the country. It has 19 starters coming back from a team that went to the national title game. The Buckeyes have considerably more talent and depth than anyone else in the conference.

Picking Michigan State is rather curious. If you remember though, I have to have someone who was picked beyond the top three of its conference. The Spartans are that team, having been picked sixth in the Big Ten.

All six of MSU’s losses were close last season, making them a prominent member of the potential risers club. They have a great senior tailback in Javon Ringer, and if there’s a conference where you can ride a senior tailback to success, it’s this one. The offensive line is big, QB Brian Hoyer is a veteran, and Mark Dantonio’s coaching will keep the defense solid.

Illinois will fall back to earth without Rashard Mendenhall, I have little faith that Jay Paterno’s “Spread HD” will amount to much, and Bret Bielema’s teams have played to the level of their opponents so much it scares me. The Rose Bowl will need someone to replace the Buckeyes, and I think the Spartans just might be the in best position to get the bid.

Plus, the Big Ten has put more teams predicted to finish below third in the conference into the BCS than any other league. It would stand to reason that the Big Ten would be the most likely conference to produce that surprise team this year.

PAC-10

Champion: USC

At-Large: Arizona State

USC looks more vulnerable to me this season than it has in years. The defense will still be great, believe you me. The offense just won’t be overwhelming as it was in the 2003-05 run, and that is what made those Trojan teams nearly invincible.

Mark Sanchez may be good, but he is no Carson Palmer or Matt Leinart. Just being John David Booty will be enough to win the conference, and I think he can be that. USC gets the benefit of the doubt until it falls.

Arizona State was a year early by winning ten games a season ago. Serious questions persist about the offensive line, and the schedule is tougher with Georgia coming to town. However, Dennis Erickson is still the second-best coach in the conference, and there’s enough continuity to think that the Sun Devils will enjoy another great season.

SEC

Championship Game: Florida over Auburn

At-Large: Georgia

Florida and Auburn were almost mirror images of each other last year. If Florida could only have had a defense to go with its offense, the Gators could have been contenders. If Auburn could only have had an offense to go with its defense, the Tigers could have been contenders.

The offseason of training should make Florida’s defense much improved, and Auburn’s offense showed a lot of promise in its bowl game under new OC Tony Franklin. LSU has so much talent everywhere that they cannot be dismissed, but I don’t think Andrew Hatch is as good as Matt Flynn was. That assumption is the main deciding factor for picking the Tigers from the Plains over the Tigers from the Bayou.

Georgia returns most everyone important from last season. I have some concerns about the team though. Can Mark Richt really keep up the special motivational tactics all season long? If he doesn’t, can the team find the fire inside? The ’Dawgs certainly couldn’t at the beginning of last season.

Will Matthew Stafford really make the leap everyone is expecting? Can another patchwork offensive line come together to have great results? Most of these questions are probably “yes” answers, but I still have UGA finishing second in the SEC East because I think Florida will beat them. I will get into that more around the time of the game, but for now just know I am assuming a Gator win on November 1.

BCS BOWL APPEARANCES

I will use the BCS selection process that I outlined recently to explain why I have everyone going to the bowls they’re listed in.

BCS National Championship Game: Ohio State over Oklahoma

These are the two teams I think have the best shot at going undefeated. Ohio State has the better team, something it didn’t have in 2007, and it will have the motivation of needing to prove the world wrong, something it didn’t have in 2006.

Oklahoma sleepwalked through its two recent BCS games, but it won’t this time. The Sooners don’t have quite the same depth that OSU has though, and the waves of fresh Buckeye players will help decide the game.

For the first time since 2005, we should have a close, entertaining national title game.

Rose Bowl: USC over Michigan State

USC comes in as the tie-in Pac-10 champion. To replace the No. 1 Buckeyes, the Rose Bowl will select Michigan State (ranked between 12 and 14 in the BCS) and get its traditional matchup. The result will be similar to last year’s game as the nation once again howls for the Rose to forget its historical matchup and set up a good game.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas Tech over Arizona State

To replace the No. 2 Sooners, the Fiesta Bowl will take the hometown Sun Devils. It was not able to take them last season because of the Orange taking Kansas; that left the Fiesta with the choice of auto-bid West Virginia or auto-bid Hawai’i.

The Fiesta gets the next choice as well, being first in the rotation this season, so it will take the nearby Red Raiders for the excitement factor. It also will not want a rematch, which is the result of taking Georgia, and it will not want to take West Virginia two years in a row.

The game will be a shootout, and I will take Tech since Mike Leach always seems to do well in bowl games.

Sugar Bowl: Florida over West Virginia

Florida comes as the tie-in SEC champion. The Sugar will take West Virginia so as not to set up a rematch of the Florida-Georgia game.

This should be an exciting game as the poster boys of the spread option, Pat White and Tim Tebow, battle it out in the Superdome. Both offenses will give the defenses fits, but Florida’s stable of playmakers is so much deeper than West Virginia’s is that I have no choice but to take the Gators.

This would be a really, really fun game though.

Orange Bowl: Georgia over Clemson

Clemson comes as the tie-in ACC champion. The Orange Bowl cannot believe its luck that it gets to take Georgia as its at-large team. Both teams are regional powers that will snap up tickets as fast as the bowl can print them.

This is also a historic rivalry game for the schools, though one that hasn’t been played regularly in a while. For that reason, it will be a very hard-fought game with a lot on the line for the fans. Georgia simply has the better team though, so I expect the ’Dawgs to take it in the second half.

In Summary

I have six teams that were picked as first place finishers in the preseason consensus: Clemson, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, USC, and Georgia. I have two teams that were picked as second place finishers in the preseason consensus: Florida and Arizona State. I have one team that was picked as a third place finisher in the preseason consensus, Texas Tech, and one from below that, Michigan State. Georgia is the one returning at-large from last season.

All of the BCS games look good except for the Rose Bowl. Most even have an enticing storyline to go along with a good matchup. I feel really bad for leaving Missouri out, but I can’t ignore the history on teams that have lost their conference title games. Subbing the Tigers in for the Red Raiders is still plausible and could also make for a great game.

For what it’s worth, I also expect Ohio State’s Chris Wells to win the Heisman, followed by Chase Daniel, Tim Tebow, and Pat White.

That is over 1,900 words of predicting up there. That’s way more than enough. It’s about time that we actually had some games in what looks to be another outstanding college football season.

2008 Big 12 Picks

NORTH DIVISION

The Pick: Missouri

Missouri versus Kansas was probably one of the toughest picks for me to make. The Big 12 has replaced the Pac-10 as the “all offense, no defense” conference, meaning that a team that can play defense will have a definite advantage. I suspect Mizzou will have the better offense, but Kansas could have the better defense.

I think the difference between the offenses will be greater than the difference between the defenses, so the Tigers get the edge. They just have so many weapons on offense that they are impossible to ignore.

There is some defined risk here. As I pointed out in my analysis of Gary Pinkel’s coaching record, the last time Missouri had any expectations was 2004. Despite having one of Pinkel’s best defenses and Brad Smith returning at quarterback, they stumbled to a 5-6 record that season. They won’t fall that far, but one great year does not wash away all the rest. They must still prove they can win with the spotlight on.

The Runner-Up: Kansas

Kansas’ schedule was a complete joke last year, but at least they completely blew out their non-conference pastries. Plus, it’s not the Jayhawks’ fault that the conference schedule rotated out Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech.

They got to have their year in the sun with an Orange Bowl at the end. Much like Missouri they now must prove they have something sustainable, and the opportunity is there to do just that. The Big 12 South heavies return to the slate, and Kansas takes a trip to play USF in Tampa.

I don’t expect them to lose five games like Rutgers did in 2007 after its dream 2006 season, even though I’ve drawn a parallel between those teams in the past. KU returns a lot more talent than Rutgers did, and I can’t really see them losing more than four. Still, they are a potential faller, so I don’t think they’ll win the division.

The Dark Horse: Nebraska

Most people would label Colorado the dark horse of the North, but I’m going with the Huskers. In the three games that returning QB Joe Ganz started last year, Nebraska scored 54 points a game, including 39 against the otherwise stingy Kansas defense. The offensive scheme this season will not be a whole lot different, so the potential for fireworks from Ganz is there.

Obviously defense was a huge problem last season, but new head coach Bo Pelini will work to get that straightened out in short order. The Blackshirts won’t be back to being the terrors they were in the ‘90s, but they will make some strides in the right direction.

I still think Nebraska is a year or two away from being ready to compete for the division title. The Huskers do miss Texas and get Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado in Lincoln though, so the schedule is somewhat favorable in that sense. If Kansas crashes to earth and Missouri breaks under pressure, the old bullies of the Big 12 North could slide in to capture the division.

SOUTH DIVISION

The Pick: Oklahoma

The Sooners have been the default pick in the South almost every year this decade, and that shoe definitely fits them this year. I actually had Oklahoma as my national title pick last season; if they had kept their focus against Colorado or Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt against Texas Tech, then they would have been in the title game ahead of LSU.

Bradford had an amazing season last year as a freshman, and thanks to a massive and massively talented offensive line he should be able to continue the success. The offense goes from dangerous to lethal if DeMarco Murray can stay healthy. The defense has a lot of question marks, but Bob Stoops usually gets it in top shape.

In my opinion, this is the Big 12 team with the best shot at going undefeated. There are of course uncertainties when it gets to BCS time, but that’s well after the conference title has been decided.

The Runner-Up: Texas Tech

When it comes to the Red Raiders, I’m like Fox Mulder: I want to believe. I like what I’ve read about Mike Leach the person, not even counting all of his hilarious eccentricities. I like seeing his offense rack up insane amounts of yards and points, and Michael Crabtree is a joy to watch.

That said, the questions about defense are completely legitimate. I’ve heard all the stats and factoids thrown around about the improvement under the mid-season replacement defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill, but they still gave up 200+ yards rushing five times after he took over. Maybe a whole offseason under McNeill will make a difference, but the jury is still out.

When it comes down to it, Texas Tech just isn’t that good on the road in the conference, and they play at Kansas and at Oklahoma. Mack Brown has owned the Red Raiders, going 8-2 against them, but both losses were in Lubbock (where they play this year) and the Longhorns have a vulnerable secondary with two freshmen starting at safety. A win over UT is possible.

I have a feeling that they will post a 6-2 conference record, placing second in the South for the second time in four seasons. However, if Leach is ever going to win the division, this is the year to do it. If they can upset Oklahoma again, the South could be theirs.

The Dark Horse: Texas

It’s a little odd calling Texas a dark horse when it has won ten or more games each of the last seven seasons, and it won nine each of the three years before that. For those scoring at home, that means nine wins is the fewest in the Mack Brown era.

The Longhorns’ grip on that ten wins a year streak has been slipping with them needing a bowl win each of the past two seasons to preserve it. Colt McCoy had a rough year last season, tossing up 18 interceptions behind a highly suspect offensive line. This season, there are questions at running back, receiver, and safety. You can add to that a brand new defensive scheme under new coordinator Will Muschamp.

Mack Brown has never finished below second in the Big 12 South since he arrived in 1998, but this is the year that streak gets broken. Now, it is a young team, so it will get better as the year goes on, and they will have a Leak/Tebow dynamic with McCoy and John Chiles.

There are just too many holes filled with nothing but question marks though to predict a top-two finish in the South given how much is returning in Norman and Lubbock. If the Red Raiders disappoint and the Sooners stumble again, the Longhorns will be in position step up and take the division, but I don’t believe they’ll reach up and grab it themselves. The 2009 season is a different story, but for now it’s 2008.

Champion: Oklahoma

BCS At-Large: Texas Tech

How Good is the Preseason Consensus at Picking BCS Teams?

If you’ve never looked at football.stassen.com, you ought to take a look. It has a lot of great resources for college football research.

One of the best things on the site is the compilation of the preseason consensus. It allows you to see what everyone was thinking before the season starts, and it goes back to 1993.

I decided to go back and look to see how good the preseason consensus was at predicting BCS participants.

By Preseason Conference Rankings

I first looked to see where the BCS conference participants were ranked in the preseason standings.

As it turns out, there’s almost always one wild card in the BCS. Every year except two – 1998 and 2003 – had a team ranked fifth or below in its conference/division make the BCS. The 2003 season was anomalous in that the BCS had six first place picks and two second place picks in it. The 1998 season had five first place picks, two second place picks, and one third place pick.

The lowest-picked teams to make the BCS were 1999 Stanford and 2002 Iowa who both were picked eighth in their conferences.

Only three seasons had more than four first place conference/division picks make the BCS. I’ve already mentioned ’98 and ’03, and the third was 2001 with five. However rather than being totally orderly, ’01 also had two seventh place picks make it in Maryland and Illinois.

Here is a table showing the frequency of making the BCS for each preseason conference/division ranking.

Frequency of BCS Appearances

Conf./Div. Ranking	Teams in BCS	Teams per Year
1	41	4.1
2	16	1.6
3	10	1.0
4	2	0.2
5	2	0.2
6	1	0.1
7	4	0.4
8	2	0.2

First Place Picks

Here is a table of how well the teams that were picked first in their conferences or divisions did at getting into the BCS.

“1s in BCS” refers to how many first place picks from the conference made the BCS. “BCS Teams” tells how many total BCS teams the conference has fielded. “Tot. 1 Picks” tells how many total first place picks the conference had in the BCS era. For conferences without divisions, it’s one a year; for conferences with divisions, it’s two a year.

First Place Picks in the BCS

Conference	1s in BCS	BCS Teams	Pct.	Tot. 1 Picks	Pct. in BCS
ACC	7	10	70%	13	53.8%
Big 12	9	14	64.3%	20	45%
Big East	6	10	60%	10	60%
Big Ten	5	17	29.4%	10	50%
Pac-10	8	12	66.7%	10	80%
SEC	6	15	40%	20	30%

We see a couple things in this.

The Big Ten’s first place picks make a very small percentage of its total BCS participants, thanks to having the smallest number of first place picks make the BCS but the largest number of BCS teams.

The Big 12 and especially the SEC had trouble putting their preseason first place picks in the BCS. In the case of the Big 12, part of it was guessing incorrectly as to whether OU or Texas would win the South. The SEC was a little messier, and I’ll explain more about that later.

Consensus Teams

I finally took a look at consensus teams. In this case, I defined a “consensus team” as a team that received three or fewer rankings of below first for its conference/division.

Surprisingly, only 29 of the 47 (61.7%) consensus teams made the BCS. Here is the number of consensus teams by year:

Consensus Teams by Season

Season	Consensus Teams
1998	4
1999	5
2000	4
2001	3
2002	4
2003	4
2004	6
2005	6
2006	8
2007	4

It’s interesting that from 1998 to 2003, there were never more than five consensus teams, and that only happened once. During that time, 69.57% of the consensus teams made the BCS.

In 2004 and 2005, there were six consensus teams, and in 2006 there were eight consensus teams. During those years where everyone suddenly agreed more often, just 45% of consensus teams made the BCS. Things toned down a bit in 2007, when all four consensus teams got to BCS bowls.

The Big Ten has only had five consensus teams, but all five have made the BCS. It appears that when everyone agrees on the Big Ten, its preseason champ makes the BCS; when everyone doesn’t necessarily agree, it’s preseason champ doesn’t make the BCS.

The Pac-10 has also had just five consensus teams. Only 1999 Arizona failed to make the BCS; the other four were USC from 2003-07. That’s an 80% success rate.

Next up in accuracy was the Big 12, which had nine consensus division winners in the BCS era. Seven of them made the BCS for a 77.8% accuracy rate. The two that missed it were 1999 Texas A&M and 2006 Nebraska.

After the Big 12 came the ACC. It had ten conference/division consensus teams, and six of them made the BCS (60%). Three of the failed four were divisional picks – VT in 2005 and both FSU and Miami in 2006 – with only 2001 FSU falling short among pre-divisional play consensus teams (all of which were of course FSU as well).

We fall below .500 in accuracy with consensus Big East picks. Only two of the five consensus teams made the BCS, but interestingly the misses came from 2004-06. It shows that people were pretty sure they knew what was going to happen post-ACC raid, but we can see in hindsight that really no one knew what was going to happen on many levels.

Finally, we see that the SEC was the most difficult to predict. It had 13 consensus teams and at least one a year, but only five of them made the BCS. That’s a 38.5% success rate.

Funnily enough, every time Florida has been a consensus team (’98, ’01, and ’06), it has made the BCS. The other two hits were ’99 Tennessee and ’07 LSU. Eastern division consensus teams were 4-2 in making the BCS; Western division consensus teams were 1-6 in making the BCS. This seems to further confirm the fact that the SEC West is generally more wide open than the SEC East, which has only ever been won by Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.

What about 2008?

As of writing this, only eight preseason rankings have been included for 2008. For comparison, Stassen.com used 18 in 2007.

What is amazing is the uniformity of the picks. Clemson and VT are unanimous in the ACC. Missouri and Oklahoma are unanimous in the Big 12. West Virginia is unanimous in the Big East (and USF is the only pick for second in the conference). Ohio State is the only one picked to win the Big Ten so far, just like USC is the only one picked to win the Pac-10.

Everyone is in complete agreement about the selection of seven of the nine conference/divisional top dogs. The only discrepancy? That fickle old SEC, where Florida and Georgia are split even in the East and LSU has a five picks to three advantage over Auburn.

We haven’t seen this much agreement since 2006 when only the Big 12 South was disputed. The success rate in that year was only three out of eight correct.

There is still time left and many more rankings to go, so we may not end up with quite this much consensus when the season starts. Just remember that if your BCS picks all fit with the conventional wisdom, history says you’ll only be about half right.